Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH)
割安ファンダメンタル
58
株価
$27.50
時価総額
$6.92B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Celsius Holdings is a US beverage company that sells functional energy drinks and wellness beverages: ready-to-drink cans, powder sticks and hydration products, formulated without sugar and with ingredients such as caffeine, green tea extract, vitamins and amino acids. It owns three brands: CELSIUS, its original line; Alani Nu, acquired on 1 April 2025; and Rockstar Energy for the US and Canada, bought from Pepsi on 28 August 2025. In the year ended 31 December 2025 the group reported revenue of $2,515.3 million, of which $2,422.5 million came from North America and $92.8 million from international markets. It makes almost nothing itself: production is outsourced to co-packers, with one supplemental in-house facility.
収益の仕組み
Celsius sells cases of beverages at wholesale and books revenue when the product ships, net of discounts, promotional allowances and slotting fees paid to retailers — so the gross price on the shelf is not what the company collects. In the United States and Canada the drinks reach shops mainly through Pepsi's direct-store-delivery network under amended distribution agreements signed in August 2025; abroad they go through exclusive partners, including the Suntory group in the UK, France, Benelux, Australia and New Zealand. The products end up in grocery, convenience stores, mass-market chains, gyms, vitamin shops and online (Amazon, Walmart.com and others). By brand, FY2025 revenue was $1,457.7 million from CELSIUS, $1,001.9 million from Alani Nu (only from its acquisition on 1 April) and $55.6 million from Rockstar (only from 28 August).
競争優位性（moat）
ブランド · 狭いWhat Celsius owns is consumer preference for two names — CELSIUS and Alani Nu — in a shelf where a shopper picks by habit and by can design. That preference is real and it travels with Pepsi's delivery trucks, which buy shelf space and cold-box placement no start-up can match. But it does not lock anyone in: the buyer switches brand at no cost, the drink itself is not patented, and the same distribution route is open to Monster, Red Bull and to Pepsi's own labels. The company itself lists shifting consumer preferences and intense competition among its risk factors.
需要を左右する要因
中程度の景気循環性An energy drink costs a few dollars and is bought on impulse, often at a convenience store or a gym, so demand does not collapse in a downturn the way a car purchase does. But it is discretionary: a household under pressure trades down to a private label or simply buys fewer cans, and the category grows with fitness and wellness habits rather than with any fixed necessity. Volumes are also seasonal — the company lists seasonality among its risk factors, with warmer months carrying more sales.
主なリスク
- Dependence on Pepsi as distributor and shareholder — The company states that sales to Pepsi were 43.2% of total net revenue in 2025 and 46.2% of receivables at 31 December 2025. Pepsi runs the domestic distribution, holds preferred stock and board seats; a change in the terms of the agreement, a drop in service levels or a shift in Pepsi's own priorities would hit sales directly.
- Integration of Alani Nu and Rockstar — Both brands were bought during 2025 and the filing flags the risk of failing to integrate them, of inheriting liabilities from the acquired businesses, and of not realising the expected benefits. The associated goodwill and intangibles are also exposed to impairment if the brands underperform.
- Reliance on third-party co-packers — Production is outsourced to co-packers that charge a fee per case. The filing warns that loss of a co-packer, or their failure to meet quality and compliance standards, would disrupt supply; it also flags product recall and product-liability exposure.
- Shifting consumer preferences and competition — The company lists changes in consumer tastes, the constant need for product innovation and competitive pressure among its risk factors. Energy drinks are a category where a brand can lose relevance quickly if it stops launching flavours and formats that resonate.
- Ingredient costs, supply chain and tariffs — The filing cites volatility in the cost and availability of raw materials and packaging, supply-chain disruption and the impact of tariffs, alongside the difficulty of forecasting demand accurately — a forecasting error shows up either as stock-outs or as excess inventory.
- Regulation of labelling, ingredients and advertising — Celsius flags FDA oversight, restrictions on product labelling and marketing, review of advertising claims, litigation exposure and data-privacy compliance. Claims about functional benefits are precisely the part of the product that regulators and plaintiffs examine.
顧客集中度
主要顧客が売上高の43.2%を占める
The 10-K states that sales to Pepsi were 43.2% of total net revenue in 2025 and that Pepsi represented 46.2% of receivables at 31 December 2025. Pepsi is both the main distribution customer and a shareholder with preferred stock and board representation, so the concentration is commercial and governance-related at the same time. No other customer above 10% appears in the disclosure we read.
強気材料
Buyers argue that Celsius has turned itself from a single-brand company into a portfolio: revenue went from $1,355.6 million in 2024 to $2,515.3 million in 2025, with Alani Nu adding $1,001.9 million in nine months and Rockstar $55.6 million in four. They point to the Pepsi relationship as an asset rather than a liability — a national delivery network and category captaincy that a mid-sized brand could not build alone — and to international revenue of $92.8 million as a base that is still small relative to the markets Celsius has barely entered. The asset-light model, with production outsourced to co-packers, means volume growth does not require building factories.
弱気材料
Sellers fear the concentration the company itself discloses: 43.2% of 2025 net revenue and 46.2% of receivables run through Pepsi, which also sits on the board and holds preferred stock, so the terms of the relationship are not fully in Celsius's hands. They note that most of the 2025 revenue increase was bought rather than grown — the original CELSIUS brand rose 7.5% while Alani Nu and Rockstar were acquired — which raises the question of what organic growth looks like once the acquisitions are in the base, and leaves goodwill and brand intangibles exposed to impairment. They also point to a category with no switching costs, where flavour fashion moves fast, production sits with third-party co-packers and regulators scrutinise functional claims.
Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Monster is the second-largest energy drink maker in the United States and fights Celsius for the same shelf space, the same convenience-store and club-store customers and the same sugar-free, fitness-minded drinker.
Keurig Dr Pepper controls GHOST and C4 in energy drinks and competes with Celsius for the same young performance-drink buyers as well as for retail distribution slots.
PepsiCo owns Rockstar and Gatorade Fast Twitch and, as a former Celsius distributor, competes for the same energy and functional-refreshment occasions in the same retail channels.
Coca-Cola distributes Monster and sells its own energy and functional drinks, competing with Celsius for the same cold-drink spending and the same retail cooler placement.
Red Bull is the leading energy drink brand in the U.S. by volume and the benchmark Celsius must take share from in every cold-vault and single-serve occasion.
Congo Brands sells Prime Energy, a fast-growing influencer-led energy line aimed at the same young U.S. consumer Celsius targets; Celsius names it as a competitor in its 10-K.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$3.05B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
純利益
$129M
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
フリーキャッシュフロー
$323M
自己資本合計
$1.18B
負債合計
$2.18B
流動比率
1.80
利払い倍率
2.95
負債/EBITDA
3.96
一株当たり利益（EPS）
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$50.12
現在株価
$27.50
安全マージン
+45.1%
適正価値レンジ
$32.58 - $67.66
使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
113.96
ROE
9.1%
P/B レシオ
5.77
P/FCF
14.95
粗利益率
48.8%
ROIC
3.1%
収益性レーダー
価値創造（経済的モート）
ROIC
3.1%
WACC
9.8%
ROIC − WACC
-6.8 pp
ROICが資本コストを下回っています。投資した1ドルごとに企業は価値を破壊しています。
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（17）
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 43.00%
- Gross Margin 48.8%
- P/FCF 14.95
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 5.3%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Revenue Growth 5Y 80.7%
- Analyst Consensus 77% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 22.9%
- PEG Ratio 0.87
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 3.94
不合格（9）
- ROIC 3.1%
- P/B Ratio 5.77
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- ROE 4.3%
- Share Dilution 34.0%
- Net Margin Trend 4.2% vs 7.9%
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9
データなし（1）
- Dividend Payout NaN%
Piotroski F-スコア
まちまちのシグナル：一部の領域に注意が必要
利益の質
高品質：利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
新株を発行しており、所有権を希薄化している
機関投資家の保有
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. John Fieldly CPA | CEO & Chairman | 45 |
| Mr. Jarrod Langhans CPA | Chief Financial Officer | 44 |
| Mr. Richard Stephen Mattessich | Chief Legal Officer, Chief Compliance Officer & Corporate Secretary | 60 |
| Mr. Tony Guilfoyle | Chief Business Transformation Officer | 51 |
| Mr. Paul Wiseman | Senior Vice President of Communications & Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Rishi Daing | Chief Marketing Officer | - |
| Ms. Trinh Lam | Chief Human Resources Officer | 47 |
| Mr. Toby David | Chief of Staff | - |
| Ms. Kyle Audrey Watson | Chief Brand Officer | 43 |
監査リスク
7
取締役会リスク
4
報酬リスク
4
株主権利リスク
2
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
業績推移
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for CELH, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 8/6/2026NEGATIVECelsius Shares Slump as Namesake Brand Sales Tumble
Celsius Holdings Inc. experienced a significant share price decline following its second-quarter financial report. The company announced that its quarterly sales fell short of analyst expectations, with a particularly concerning drop in sales for its flagship namesake brand. This underperformance suggests potential headwinds in market penetration or consumer demand for its core products. Investors will be closely monitoring management's strategy to address these sales challenges and regain market momentum in the upcoming quarters.
- 6/17/2026NEUTRALHere's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Celsius Holdings Stock In The Last 10 Years
An analysis of Celsius Holdings Inc. stock performance over the past decade reveals significant returns for long-term investors. While specific figures are not detailed in this summary, the article implies substantial growth, suggesting a positive trajectory for the company's market value. This historical performance data is crucial for investors evaluating the company's long-term potential and risk profile. Investors considering Celsius Holdings should analyze the factors contributing to this past growth to assess future prospects.
- 6/15/2026NEGATIVECelsius Stock Falls Monday Despite Broad Market Surge: What Investors Need To Know
Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ: CELH) experienced a stock decline on Monday, diverging from a broadly surging market. This underperformance suggests a lack of investor confidence or specific headwinds affecting the company, even within a positive macroeconomic environment. Traders are reportedly 'fading the name,' indicating a sentiment of selling into any upward price movement. For investors, this divergence warrants a closer examination of Celsius's specific business fundamentals and competitive positioning, as the stock is not participating in the general market rally.
- 6/9/2026POSITIVECelsius Stock Stabilizes: Will Insider Buying Stop The Downward Trend?
Celsius Holdings Inc. is showing premarket gains, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in the market. Investors are closely watching signals of insider buying, which could indicate management's confidence in the company's future prospects. This potential turnaround, coupled with positive market conditions, suggests a stabilization and possible upward trajectory for the stock. The insider activity, if substantial, could be a strong indicator for retail investors looking for conviction plays.
- 6/5/2026POSITIVECelsius Stock Rebounds: What's Fueling Friday's Gains?
Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ: CELH) experienced a notable rebound on Friday, with its stock trading higher. This surge appears to be driven by a complex interplay of factors, including ongoing investor discussions about the company's profit margins and product mix strategies. Additionally, indications of insider confidence may be bolstering market sentiment. For investors, the positive momentum suggests a potential shift in perception, possibly outweighing concerns about the company's operational details and signaling renewed confidence in its future performance.
- 5/12/2026NEGATIVECelsius Stock Is Tumbling Tuesday: What's Driving The Action?
Celsius Holdings is experiencing a significant downturn, with its stock tumbling on Tuesday. This decline comes as traders are shifting their focus away from the post-earnings optimism surrounding its distribution expansion, which is backed by PepsiCo. Investors are now scrutinizing the potential impact of this growth strategy on the company's profit margins. The market appears to be re-evaluating the long-term profitability of Celsius's expansion efforts, leading to a sell-off.
- 5/11/2026NEGATIVECelsius Holdings Stock Drops 10% Monday: What's Driving The Move?
Celsius Holdings Inc. (CELH) shares experienced a significant decline of 10% on Monday, as investors began to 'fade' the recent positive sentiment generated by its earnings report and the distribution expansion initiative supported by PepsiCo. This pullback suggests that the market is reassessing the sustainability of the prior optimism, potentially due to concerns about the pace of growth or competitive pressures within the beverage industry. For shareholders, this drop indicates a shift in market sentiment, prompting a re-evaluation of the stock's near-term prospects.
- 5/7/2026POSITIVECelsius Is Winning The Energy Drink Battle With Pepsi In Its Corner
Celsius Holdings Inc. announced record first-quarter revenue of $782.6 million, a remarkable 138% year-over-year increase. This surge is attributed to robust demand in North America and the strategic partnership with PepsiCo. The company's ability to capture market share, particularly against established players like Pepsi, highlights its strong brand appeal and effective distribution strategy. For investors, this performance indicates significant growth potential and market penetration, suggesting continued upward momentum for the stock.
- 3/26/2026NEUTRALHere's How Much $100 Invested In Celsius Holdings 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today
An investment of $100 in Celsius Holdings Inc. (CELH) ten years ago would have yielded a significant return, reaching approximately $15,000 today. This hypothetical scenario highlights the substantial growth experienced by the beverage company over the past decade. The stock has seen considerable appreciation, driven by factors such as product innovation, market expansion, and strong consumer demand in the energy drink sector. Investors who held CELH would have benefited from its impressive performance, underscoring the potential for high returns in well-performing consumer staples stocks.
- 3/10/2026NEUTRALIf You Invested $1000 In Celsius Holdings Stock 10 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today
An analysis of Celsius Holdings Inc. stock (CELH) reveals that a hypothetical $1000 investment made ten years ago would have yielded a significant return by today's date. While the exact current valuation is not provided, the article implies substantial growth, suggesting a strong performance trajectory for the beverage company. This historical perspective highlights the potential for long-term capital appreciation in companies that successfully capture market share and consumer interest in their respective sectors.
via Markets Gazette