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Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated (CORT)

適正価値
HealthcareBiotechnologyUnited States

ファンダメンタル

53

株価

$113.81

時価総額

$12.46B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Corcept Therapeutics is a US commercial-stage pharmaceutical company built around a single scientific idea: blocking the effects of the hormone cortisol at its receptor. Its only commercial product family is Korlym (mifepristone 300 mg tablets), sold in the United States since 2012 to treat hypercortisolism (Cushing's syndrome), plus an authorized generic version of the same tablet that Corcept itself launched in June 2024. Everything else is still in development: relacorilant (a next-generation cortisol modulator for hypercortisolism, whose marketing application received a Complete Response Letter from the FDA and is still under discussion with the agency, and which is also being tested in ovarian and other cancers), miricorilant for metabolic liver disease (MASH), and dazucorilant for ALS. Full-year 2025 revenue was $761.4 million, against $675.0 million in 2024, and the company guided to $900–$1,000 million for 2026.

収益の仕組み

All revenue comes from selling prescription tablets in the United States: patients with hypercortisolism take Korlym (or its authorized generic) chronically, and Corcept books net product revenue as those prescriptions are dispensed. There are no licensing, royalty or collaboration revenues of consequence — the income statement is essentially one line. Corcept does not sell through the usual wholesale drug channel: it uses a single specialty pharmacy that dispenses the medicine directly to patients and collects from insurers, pharmacy benefit managers, government programs and charities on the company's behalf. Optime Care filled that role from 2017 until the relationship was terminated in late 2025/early 2026, with services moved to Curant Health Georgia. Its own sales representatives and medical science liaisons call on the small number of endocrinologists who diagnose and treat the disease, so growth comes almost entirely from more patients being diagnosed and started on therapy rather than from price.

競争優位性(moat)

特許・ライセンス · 狭い

What protects Corcept is regulatory and clinical, not industrial: an approved label in a rare disease, twenty years of accumulated know-how on cortisol modulation, a patent estate around the use of mifepristone in hypercortisolism, and direct relationships with the handful of endocrinologists who manage these patients. That protection is real but visibly narrowing. A generic version of Korlym sold by Teva has competed with the company's products since January 2024, Corcept answered by launching its own authorized generic in June 2024, and on 19 February 2026 the appellate court affirmed the district court's ruling of no infringement in the patent case against Teva. The company's durable advantage now rests less on patents than on being the only firm whose entire scientific platform is cortisol modulation — and that advantage only converts into profits if the pipeline behind Korlym is approved.

需要を左右する要因

ディフェンシブ

Hypercortisolism is a serious chronic endocrine disease: patients do not stop treatment because the economy slows, and prescriptions do not accelerate in a boom. Demand is driven by diagnosis, not by the business cycle — how many endocrinologists recognise the condition, how many new patients are screened and started, and how long each patient stays on therapy. Corcept attributed its 2025 growth to growing recognition among physicians of the true prevalence of hypercortisolism, reporting a record number of new prescriptions and new prescribers and a materially higher number of tablets sold than in 2024. The genuine swing factors are regulatory and competitive — generic entry, payer coverage, approval or rejection of the next medicine — not GDP.

主なリスク

  • The whole business depends on one medicine — Corcept warns that failure to generate sufficient revenue from the sale of its Products would harm its financial results and would likely cause its stock price to decline. Operations, the research pipeline and the sales force are all funded out of Korlym revenue and existing cash; a significant decline in revenue could force the company to curtail operations or raise funds.
  • Generic competition on Korlym — The company discloses that the availability of generic versions of Korlym could adversely affect its business, results of operations and financial position. Since January 2024 its products compete with a generic version of Korlym sold by Teva, and in the patent litigation the appellate court affirmed in February 2026 the lower court's finding of no infringement.
  • Mifepristone is a politically exposed molecule — Corcept lists as a risk that public perception of mifepristone, or legislation limiting or barring its distribution or use for termination of early pregnancy, may limit the company's ability to sell its Products — even though its own indication is hypercortisolism, not pregnancy termination.
  • Reimbursement and healthcare legislation — The filing warns that new laws, government regulations or changes to existing ones could make it difficult or impossible to obtain acceptable prices or adequate insurance coverage and reimbursement for its Products, which would adversely affect results of operations and financial position. Because almost all collections come from third-party payers, a coverage decision matters more than a commercial decision.
  • A single specialty pharmacy and single-source manufacturers — Corcept identifies its reliance on one specialty pharmacy to dispense its medicines and collect payment, and its reliance on contract manufacturers to produce its products and product candidates, as risks. The concentration is concrete: Optime Care was the exclusive specialty pharmacy from 2017, was notified in June 2025 that it would lose exclusivity, received a termination notice in October 2025, and services were transferred to Curant Health Georgia between the fourth quarter of 2025 and early 2026 — a transition the company had to execute without interrupting patient supply.

顧客集中度

The 10-K does not state a percentage of revenue attributable to the largest customers, so no number is reported here. The structure, however, is highly concentrated by design: essentially all of Corcept's medicine reaches patients through one exclusive specialty pharmacy, which also collects payment from insurers and government programs on the company's behalf — Optime Care from 2017 until its termination effective early 2026, and Curant Health Georgia thereafter. Economically the money comes from a limited set of third-party payers and pharmacy benefit managers rather than from a diversified customer base, while operationally a single vendor sits between the company and every patient.

強気材料

Buyers argue that Corcept is a profitable, debt-free specialty pharma whose core business keeps compounding on its own: revenue rose from $675.0 million in 2024 to $761.4 million in 2025, the company guided to $900–$1,000 million for 2026, and management reports record new prescriptions and record new prescribers as more physicians recognise how common hypercortisolism actually is — a market they see as still largely undiagnosed. They point out that the business funds a broad pipeline out of its own cash flow, with $532.4 million of cash and investments at the end of 2025 and no need to dilute shareholders, and that the same cortisol-modulation platform has produced several shots on goal: relacorilant in hypercortisolism, relacorilant in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer after the ROSELLA study met its endpoints, miricorilant in MASH with data expected at the end of 2026, and dazucorilant in ALS. On this view an approval for any of them adds a second revenue stream on top of a base that already pays for itself.

弱気材料

Sellers fear a one-product company whose single product is now off patent protection in practice. A Teva generic has competed with Korlym since January 2024, Corcept had to cannibalise itself with an authorised generic in June 2024, and in February 2026 the appellate court affirmed the finding of no infringement — removing the legal backstop. They note that the successor medicine has not arrived: relacorilant's application drew a Complete Response Letter from the FDA and remains under discussion, so the franchise's renewal date is unknown. Meanwhile the cost of keeping the story alive is visible in the numbers: 2025 net income fell to $99.7 million from $141.2 million in 2024 even as revenue grew, with $254.9 million of R&D and $448.7 million of SG&A. Bears add the structural fragilities the company itself discloses: one exclusive specialty pharmacy — just replaced — standing between Corcept and every patient, contract manufacturers as the only source of supply, payer and pricing legislation able to reset the economics, and a molecule whose active ingredient is politically contested for reasons that have nothing to do with the disease it treats.

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Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

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Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: —Score: 51Market cap: —

Crinetics is developing atumelnant, an oral ACTH-pathway blocker aimed at ACTH-dependent Cushing's syndrome, the same late-stage indication Corcept is pursuing with relacorilant.

Recordati S.p.A.REC

Recordati sells Isturisa (osilodrostat) and Signifor/Signifor LAR (pasireotide), the two branded drugs Corcept's own 10-K names first as competing with Korlym for the same endogenous Cushing's syndrome patients in the US and Europe.

Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.XERS

Xeris markets Recorlev (levoketoconazole) for endogenous hypercortisolism in adult Cushing's syndrome patients who cannot be cured by surgery — the same prescriber, the same small specialist patient pool that Korlym is sold into.

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.TEVA

Teva launched a generic version of mifepristone 300 mg in January 2024, taking prescriptions and revenue directly from Korlym, the molecule that still provides essentially all of Corcept's sales.

Sparrow Pharmaceuticals, Inc.Not tracked

This privately held company is developing clofutriben (SPI-62) for hypercortisolism and is listed alongside relacorilant among the pipeline products competing for the same future Cushing's prescriptions.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$831M

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$55M

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$142M

自己資本合計

$648M

負債合計

$189M

流動比率

2.86

利払い倍率

-

負債/EBITDA

0.21

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

一般的なケース適正価値

適正価値

$98.21

現在株価

$113.81

安全マージン

-15.9%

適正価値レンジ

$63.84 - $132.58

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$141.00
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):$32.84
利益倍率(P/E):$15.00
グレアムの成長公式:$3.37
収益力価値(EPV):$0.53
正当化されたP/B:$6.57
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):$14.92
中間サイクル利益:$30.70
売上高倍率:$27.65
アナリスト・コンセンサス:買い (10B / 1H / 1S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+6958.82%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

274.36

ROE

15.4%

P/B レシオ

17.65

P/FCF

116.50

粗利益率

98.3%

ROIC

0.7%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

0.7%

WACC

8.0%

ROIC − WACC

-7.3 pp

ROICが資本コストを下回っています。投資した1ドルごとに企業は価値を破壊しています。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(15)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 31.59%
  • Gross Margin 98.3%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 8.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 16.6%
  • Analyst Consensus 83% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 1684.0%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.99

不合格(9)

  • ROIC 0.7%
  • P/FCF 116.50
  • P/B Ratio 17.65
  • Operating Margin 0.8%
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Share Dilution 5.9%
  • Net Margin Trend 6.6% vs 18.7%
  • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

データなし(3)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-スコア

4/9

まちまちのシグナル:一部の領域に注意が必要

score
criteria

利益の質

1.99

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

5.9%

新株を発行しており、所有権を希薄化している

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Dr. Joseph K. Belanoff M.D.Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director68
Mr. Atabak MokariCFO & Treasurer48
Mr. Sean MaduckPresident of Endocrinology48
Dr. William Guyer Pharm.D.Chief Development Officer57
Mr. Gary Charles Robb J.D.Chief Business Officer & Secretary62
Mr. Joseph Douglas LyonChief Technology & Accounting Officer47
Dr. Hazel Hunt Ph.D.Chief Scientific Officer65
Ms. Amy FloodChief Human Resources & Communications Officer-
Ms. Monica TelladoPresident of Emerging Markets52
Mr. Roberto W. VieiraPresident of Oncology-

監査リスク

8

取締役会リスク

5

報酬リスク

7

株主権利リスク

7

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

書類

  • 年次報告書(10-K)

    事業内容、財務実績、リスクをまとめた年次の概要。

    提出日: 2026-02-24

    書類を見る
  • 四半期報告書(10-Q)

    直近3か月間の業績に関する最新情報。

    提出日: 2026-07-29

    書類を見る
  • 臨時報告書(8-K)

    経営陣の交代や重要な発表など、大きな出来事に関するお知らせ。

    提出日: 2026-09-23

    書類を見る

via SEC EDGAR

業績推移

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

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