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Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

適正価値
TechnologyCommunication EquipmentUnited States

ファンダメンタル

65

株価

$108.04

時価総額

$421.74B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Cisco builds the networking equipment — routers, switches, wireless gear — that moves data through corporate and telecom networks, and has layered security, collaboration and observability software on top of that base. It sells mostly through a two-tier channel of distributors and resellers rather than directly, and its 2024 acquisition of Splunk turned network and application monitoring into one of its largest growth engines.

収益の仕組み

Roughly three-quarters of revenue still comes from selling physical and virtual equipment outright, but Cisco increasingly bundles that hardware with multi-year software subscriptions for security, observability and collaboration, turning a one-time sale into a renewing stream. The remaining quarter is services — support, maintenance and professional services on the enormous installed base of equipment already deployed, which is far more predictable than new equipment sales.

セグメント別売上高

Networking50%

Routers, switches, wireless and data-centre networking hardware and software — the core business, though it shrank in fiscal 2025.

Services26.6%

Support, maintenance and professional services sold on top of Cisco's large installed base of deployed equipment.

Security14.3%

Cybersecurity software and appliances, Cisco's fastest-growing category after the Splunk acquisition closed.

Collaboration7.3%

Webex video conferencing, calling and contact-centre software for hybrid and remote work.

Observability1.9%

Splunk's monitoring and analytics tools plus ThousandEyes, the smallest category but growing quickly.

競争優位性(moat)

スイッチングコスト · 狭い

Ripping out core network infrastructure is disruptive and risky, and a generation of network engineers has been trained and certified specifically on Cisco's systems, which discourages wholesale replacement. The advantage has narrowed over the years, though, as cheaper switching hardware and cloud-native networking approaches have given large customers credible alternatives at the edges of the network.

需要を左右する要因

中程度の景気循環性

Enterprise and telecom capital spending on networking equipment rises and falls with IT budgets and can be deferred when a downturn hits, which is why Cisco's core Networking revenue actually declined in fiscal 2025. The growing subscription and services base cushions that swing, since renewal revenue keeps flowing even when new equipment orders slow.

主なリスク

  • Reliance on a two-tier distribution channel — Most Cisco products reach customers through distributors and resellers rather than direct sales, so channel inventory levels and partner incentives can distort visibility into real end demand.
  • Need to keep pace with rapid technology shifts — Cloud-native networking, software-defined architectures and AI infrastructure are reshaping how enterprises build networks, and Cisco must keep innovating in these directions or lose ground to faster-moving competitors.
  • Cybersecurity exposure — As both a security vendor and a large technology target, a breach of Cisco's own products or systems would damage customer trust in a business built partly on being a trusted security supplier.
  • Integrating large acquisitions — The $28 billion Splunk deal is central to Cisco's observability strategy; realising the expected synergies and cross-selling depends on integration executing well, which large acquisitions do not always do.

強気材料

Buyers argue that Splunk has given Cisco a genuine second growth engine in security and observability just as AI data-centre buildouts are reviving networking demand, and that the shift toward subscription revenue makes results more predictable than the old hardware-refresh cycle ever was.

弱気材料

Sellers worry that Cisco's core Networking business, still half of revenue, is losing share to cheaper switching hardware and cloud-native alternatives, and that folding Splunk into a much larger, slower-growing company will dilute the acquisition's promise rather than accelerate it.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 64.4Score: 76Market cap: $258.45B

Named by Cisco in its 10-K, Arista sells Ethernet switches to the same cloud, AI data center and enterprise campus buyers Cisco's Nexus and Catalyst lines target.

P/E: 32.9Score: 62Market cap: $83.14B

After absorbing Juniper Networks in July 2025 alongside its Aruba business, HPE is the other vendor offering a full campus, data center and service-provider networking portfolio to the same enterprise accounts.

P/E: 28.9Score: 77Market cap: $5.41T

Cisco lists Nvidia as a competitor because its Spectrum-X Ethernet and InfiniBand fabrics take the same AI data center networking budget Cisco is chasing with its AI infrastructure switches.

P/E: 993.3Score: 57Market cap: $318.95B

Palo Alto competes for the same corporate security spending as Cisco's firewall, zero-trust and secure-access products.

Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. (华为技术有限公司)Not tracked

Huawei competes head-on for carrier and enterprise routing and switching contracts, above all in China, Asia, Africa and the Middle East where Cisco bids for the same tenders.

Nokia CorporationNOK

Nokia sells IP routing and optical transport systems to the telecom operators and internet providers that make up Cisco's service-provider segment.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$63.33B

直近12か月(2026/7/25まで)

純利益

$13.27B

直近12か月(2026/7/25まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$12.77B

自己資本合計

$50.28B

負債合計

$79.35B

流動比率

0.93

利払い倍率

10.45

負債/EBITDA

1.53

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

一般的なケース適正価値

適正価値

$90.06

現在株価

$108.04

安全マージン

-20.0%

適正価値レンジ

$58.54 - $121.58

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$137.25
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):$79.07
利益倍率(P/E):$68.28
グレアムの成長公式:$59.37
収益力価値(EPV):$30.33
正当化されたP/B:$49.34
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):$28.54
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):$56.68
中間サイクル利益:$93.89
売上高倍率:$81.07
アナリスト・コンセンサス:買い (24B / 11H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+2.20%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

32.32

ROE

26.4%

P/B レシオ

8.44

P/FCF

33.24

粗利益率

64.5%

ROIC

13.8%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

13.8%

WACC

9.8%

ROIC − WACC

+4.0 pp

ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(19)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 5.32%
  • Price CAGR 13.42%
  • ROIC 13.8%
  • Gross Margin 64.5%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 24.3%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 27.4%
  • Analyst Consensus 69% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.07
  • Share Dilution -0.2%
  • Net Margin Trend 21.0% vs 18.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

不合格(8)

  • P/FCF 33.24
  • P/B Ratio 8.44
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 4.9%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 0.6%
  • PEG Ratio 5.41

データなし(1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-スコア

7/9

財務健全性が高い

score
criteria

利益の質

1.07

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

-0.2%

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Charles H. RobbinsChairman & CEO59
Mr. Jeetendra I. PatelPresident & Chief Product Officer53
Mr. Thimaya SubaiyaExecutive Vice President of Operations46
Ms. Deborah L. StahlkopfExecutive VP & Chief Legal Officer54
Mr. Mark PattersonExecutive VP & CFO55
Mr. Nichlas A. FinkSenior VP, Corporate Controller & Chief Accounting Officer45
Mr. Andrew AshtonSenior Vice President of Corporate Finance-
Mr. Ahmed Sami BadriHead of Investor Relations & Strategic Finance-
Mr. Steve ClaytonSenior VP & Chief Communications Officer-
Mr. Oliver TuszikExecutive VP of Global Sales & Chief Sales Officer57

監査リスク

6

取締役会リスク

6

報酬リスク

8

株主権利リスク

1

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

書類

  • 年次報告書(10-K)

    事業内容、財務実績、リスクをまとめた年次の概要。

    提出日: 2026-09-02

    書類を見る
  • 四半期報告書(10-Q)

    直近3か月間の業績に関する最新情報。

    提出日: 2026-05-19

    書類を見る
  • 臨時報告書(8-K)

    経営陣の交代や重要な発表など、大きな出来事に関するお知らせ。

    提出日: 2026-08-12

    書類を見る

via SEC EDGAR

業績推移

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for CSCO, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 9d agoNEGATIVE
    Azioni Cisco Systems in mercato ribassista: conviene comprare il ribasso?

    Cisco Systems shares have entered a bear market, falling 20% from their year-to-date high to $105. This decline has erased billions in market capitalization, reducing it from $513 billion to $414 billion. The stock's downturn follows a period of profit-taking after reaching an all-time high. Despite a strong earnings report on August 12th, which indicated significant increases in revenue and profits, investors have been selling off shares. This price action suggests a market sentiment shift, with traders exiting positions despite positive fundamental data.

  • 8/13/2026NEGATIVE
    Cisco’s stock falls on margin concerns. Here’s what Wall Street analysts are saying.

    Cisco's stock experienced a decline following concerns raised by Wall Street analysts regarding potential pressure on gross margins. The analysts' sentiment stems from the company's potential focus on the artificial-intelligence 'supercycle,' which could necessitate increased investment or shifts in product mix that may impact profitability. This outlook suggests that while AI presents a growth opportunity, it may come at the cost of short-term margin expansion, a key metric for investors assessing operational efficiency and pricing power.

  • 8/12/2026NEUTRAL
    Cisco sees record results from an AI ‘supercycle,’ but its stock pulls back

    Cisco Systems Inc. reported a record performance, with revenue surging 18% and issuing an optimistic 2027 forecast, signaling strong future growth potential driven by an AI 'supercycle.' Despite these robust results and projections, the company's stock experienced a pullback. This divergence suggests that while the fundamental outlook remains positive, market sentiment or other factors may be influencing short-term price action. Investors will be watching to see if the company can translate its technological advantages and market position into sustained stock appreciation.

  • 8/12/2026NEUTRAL
    Cisco Beats Estimates, Cerebras Reports Declines | Closing Bell

    Cisco Systems Inc. reported earnings that surpassed analyst expectations, though specific figures were not detailed in this summary. The news also mentioned Cerebras Systems experiencing declines, suggesting a mixed performance across technology sectors. The broader market close coverage indicates a focus on U.S. market dynamics. For investors, the positive outcome for Cisco may offer a degree of confidence, but the contrasting performance of Cerebras highlights sector-specific risks and the need for careful stock selection within the technology landscape.

  • 7/28/2026NEUTRAL
    As chips sell off, rattled investors should heed this Cisco Systems lesson from the last millennium

    Fundstrat's Tom Lee suggests the market may regain stability within days, drawing a parallel to past resilience exemplified by Cisco Systems' performance in the late 1990s. While the current chip sector faces a sell-off, Lee's commentary implies a belief in eventual market recovery. The historical reference to Cisco, a tech giant that navigated significant market volatility, serves as a reminder of the potential for established companies to rebound. Investors are advised to consider this long-term perspective amidst short-term sector-specific downturns.

  • 6/3/2026POSITIVE
    After Dell And HPE's AI-Fueled Surge, Is Cisco The Next 1990s Tech Giant To Break Out?

    Cisco Systems Inc. is showing signs of a potential breakout, following the significant AI-driven rallies of Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. While Cisco has lagged its peers, eleven Wall Street firms have recently increased their price targets for the stock. This renewed analyst optimism suggests a potential shift in investor sentiment, as the company might be poised to capitalize on the burgeoning demand for AI infrastructure and networking solutions, similar to the surges seen in other legacy tech giants.

  • 5/29/2026POSITIVE
    Cisco's Biggest AI Bet Wasn't Made In 2025 — It Was Made In 2016

    Cisco's strategic foresight in AI infrastructure is highlighted by CEO Chuck Robbins, who revealed the company's significant AI bet was placed in 2016 with a key silicon acquisition, predating the current AI boom. This long-term vision positions Cisco favorably in the rapidly expanding AI market. Investors may see this as a testament to strong leadership and strategic planning, potentially bolstering confidence in the company's future growth prospects and its ability to capitalize on AI-driven opportunities.

  • 5/17/2026NEGATIVE
    Cisco Stock Is Up 55% This Year, But Two Key Risks May Trigger Reversal

    Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) has experienced a significant 55% surge in its stock price year-to-date. However, current market indicators suggest extreme overbought conditions and elevated valuation multiples. These factors combined present a substantial risk of a potential reversal in the stock's trajectory. Investors should be cautious as the current price may not be sustainable, and a correction could be imminent.

via Markets Gazette