Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)
適正価値ファンダメンタル
68
株価
$115.24
時価総額
$21.30B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Dollar Tree runs roughly 9,000 discount variety stores in the United States and Canada where most items are sold at a fixed low price point, offering a mix of household goods, food, seasonal items and party supplies aimed at value-conscious, budget-focused shoppers looking for everyday essentials at the lowest possible price. In 2025 the company sold its separate Family Dollar chain, leaving standalone Dollar Tree stores as its entire operating business going forward.
収益の仕組み
Revenue is simple retail: stores sell merchandise bought in bulk from suppliers, marked up to the store's price points, with growth coming from opening new stores, selling more per existing store and, in recent years, from adding price points above the original one-dollar level. Roughly 40% of what it sells is imported, with China as the largest single source, so the cost side depends heavily on global shipping and tariff conditions.
競争優位性（moat）
コスト優位性 · 狭いBuying in bulk across roughly 9,000 stores lets Dollar Tree negotiate lower per-unit costs from suppliers than a small independent retailer could, and its distribution network is built to keep costs low enough to sustain fixed, deeply discounted price points. That advantage is narrow because Walmart, other dollar-store chains and online marketplaces compete on price in the same low-cost segment.
需要を左右する要因
ディフェンシブDollar Tree sells low-priced everyday and household items that shoppers keep buying even when budgets tighten, and value-seeking behaviour in a downturn can bring in shoppers trading down from pricier retailers. Demand is not fully immune to the economy, since discretionary categories like seasonal and party goods can soften, but the core business holds up better than most discretionary retail.
主なリスク
- Tariffs on imported merchandise — About 40% of goods sold are imported, mostly from China, and new or higher tariffs directly raise the cost of merchandise on fixed or narrow price points that are hard to raise quickly.
- Intense price competition — Walmart, other discount and dollar-store chains, and online marketplaces all compete directly on low prices, limiting how much Dollar Tree can raise prices to offset rising costs.
- Standalone execution after the Family Dollar sale — Having divested Family Dollar in 2025, the company now depends entirely on the Dollar Tree banner's performance, removing the diversification a second chain previously provided.
強気材料
Buyers argue that value-seeking shoppers keep returning to fixed low price points regardless of the economic cycle, that bulk purchasing scale across thousands of stores keeps costs down relative to smaller competitors, and that shedding Family Dollar lets management focus fully on the more productive Dollar Tree banner.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that tariffs on the roughly 40% of merchandise sourced abroad squeeze margins the company cannot easily pass on to price-sensitive shoppers, that competition from Walmart and other discounters caps pricing power, and that the business now depends entirely on a single banner with no other chain to offset a weak stretch.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
The closest same-format rival, with roughly 20,000 small-box discount stores selling consumables and household basics to the same value-seeking shopper, often within a few miles of a Dollar Tree.
Competes for the same low-price discretionary basket — seasonal goods, toys, party and home items — and with its Five Beyond range it moves into the higher price points Dollar Tree is adding with its multi-price format.
The price benchmark of American discount retail: its supercenters and Neighborhood Markets sit close to most Dollar Tree stores and capture the same trip for household staples and low-cost general merchandise.
The largest U.S. closeout retailer, it draws the same bargain-hunting customer with opportunistic overstock buys and is expanding aggressively into the small-town markets Dollar Tree serves.
Its own-brand value lines and seasonal, party and home aisles compete for the same discretionary spending, particularly with the suburban shoppers Dollar Tree reaches through its multi-price stores.
Sold by Dollar Tree in July 2025 to Brigade Capital and Macellum Capital, it is now an independent chain of roughly 8,000 discount stores chasing the same low-income neighborhood customer.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$20.05B
直近12か月（2026/8/1まで）
純利益
$1.61B
直近12か月（2026/8/1まで）
フリーキャッシュフロー
$1.06B
自己資本合計
$3.75B
負債合計
$9.71B
流動比率
1.13
利払い倍率
-
負債/EBITDA
3.33
一株当たり利益（EPS）
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$133.88
現在株価
$115.24
安全マージン
+13.9%
適正価値レンジ
$110.10 - $157.67
使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
13.97
ROE
34.2%
P/B レシオ
6.25
P/FCF
10.82
粗利益率
38.7%
ROIC
16.2%
収益性レーダー
価値創造（経済的モート）
ROIC
16.2%
WACC
6.1%
ROIC − WACC
+10.1 pp
ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（18）
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 7.97%
- ROIC 16.2%
- Gross Margin 38.7%
- P/FCF 10.82
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 11.0%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 45.6%
- Earnings Surprise avg 37.6%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.93
- Share Dilution -4.5%
- Net Margin Trend 8.0% vs -15.8%
- Piotroski F-Score 9/9
不合格（8）
- Price CAGR 3.90%
- P/B Ratio 6.25
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Revenue Growth 5Y -5.3%
- Analyst Consensus 43% Buy
- PEG Ratio 7.01
データなし（2）
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
Piotroski F-スコア
財務健全性が高い
利益の質
高品質：利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的
機関投資家の保有
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Michael C. Creedon Jr. | CEO & Director | 49 |
| Mr. Stewart F. Glendinning J.D. | Chief Financial Officer | 60 |
| Mr. Robert Aflatooni | Chief Information Officer | 54 |
| Mr. Steve Schumacher | Chief People Officer | 53 |
| Mr. Aditya Maheshwari | Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 50 |
| Mr. Daniel Delrosario | Senior VP of Investor Relations & Treasurer | - |
| Mr. John S. Mitchell Jr., J.D. | Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 55 |
| Mr. Thoufiq Kutty J.D. | SVP and Chief Ethics & Compliance Officer | - |
| Mr. Pedro Voyer | Chief Development Officer | - |
| Ms. Jennifer L. Silberman | Chief Sustainability & Corporate Affairs Officer | - |
監査リスク
5
取締役会リスク
3
報酬リスク
7
株主権利リスク
2
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
業績推移
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for DLTR, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 5/28/2026POSITIVEDollar Tree’s sales top forecasts as fewer people are shopping but they’re spending more
Dollar Tree Inc. reported first-quarter sales that surpassed analyst expectations, driven by a trend of consumers spending more per visit despite a lower frequency of shopping. The discount retailer also raised its full-year profit outlook, signaling strong operational performance and strategic execution. This positive financial momentum has led to a significant surge in its stock price, positioning it for its best trading day in four years. Investors are likely to view these results as a testament to the company's resilience and ability to adapt to changing consumer spending habits, potentially leading to increased confidence and upward price target revisions.
- 4/7/2026NEGATIVEWhy Are Dollar Tree Shares Trading Down On Tuesday?
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) shares experienced a decline on Tuesday, influenced by a broader market downturn. This sell-off was primarily attributed to a significant drop in durable goods orders, signaling potential weakness in manufacturing and consumer spending. Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions, marked by strikes on Iran and a subsequent rise in oil prices, added to market uncertainty and investor caution. The combination of economic headwinds and rising commodity costs creates a challenging environment for retail companies like Dollar Tree, impacting consumer discretionary spending.
- 3/17/2026POSITIVEDollar Tree Q4 Beats Expectations, Analysts Split On Stock Outlook
Dollar Tree Inc. announced its fourth-quarter financial results, surpassing analyst expectations with improved gross margins and earnings per share. The company's performance indicates a strong operational quarter, potentially driven by effective cost management and increased consumer demand for its value-oriented offerings. Despite the positive financial outcome, analyst sentiment remains divided, with varying ratings suggesting uncertainty about the stock's future trajectory. Investors will closely monitor management's guidance for the upcoming fiscal year to gauge sustained growth potential.
- 3/16/2026NEUTRALDollar Tree Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Dollar Tree released its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call transcript on March 16, 2026. While the transcript provides detailed insights into the company's performance and outlook, the news itself is informational. Investors will need to analyze the transcript for specific financial figures, management commentary on sales trends, cost management, and future guidance to determine any potential impact on the stock. Without specific figures or forward-looking statements highlighted in the summary, the direct market impact remains neutral.
- 3/16/2026POSITIVEHigher prices help Dollar Tree grow sales faster than its top rival
Dollar Tree Inc. reported strong sales growth, outpacing its main competitor due to favorable pricing strategies. This performance comes despite a recent three-day losing streak for the stock, which saw an 8% decline. The company's ability to leverage higher prices to boost sales volume suggests resilience and effective inventory management. For investors, this indicates potential for a rebound and sustained market share gains, especially if broader economic conditions remain challenging for consumers.
- 2/27/2026NEUTRALDollar Tree opens stores in surprising locations
Dollar Tree Inc. is undergoing a significant transformation, moving away from its long-standing $1 price point per item. This strategic shift, coupled with the opening of stores in unexpected locations, indicates an adaptation to evolving market dynamics and inflationary pressures. For investors, this transition represents an effort to improve margins and brand relevance, but also raises questions about consumer value perception and the impact on customer loyalty, which was strongly tied to the unique price point. Success will hinge on the execution of this new strategy and the ability to maintain brand appeal.
via Markets Gazette