ランキングに戻る

MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI)

適正価値
Consumer CyclicalInternet RetailUruguay

ファンダメンタル

72

株価

$1686.11

時価総額

$88.93B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest online marketplace and, alongside it, Mercado Pago, a payments and financial-services business that grew out of the need to let strangers pay each other safely online in markets with limited card penetration. The two businesses now reinforce each other: sellers use MercadoLibre's logistics and Mercado Pago's credit, and Mercado Pago increasingly operates outside the marketplace too, in physical stores and as a standalone digital wallet.

収益の仕組み

Commerce revenue comes from seller commissions on marketplace transactions, shipping fees, advertising and MercadoLibre's own first-party product sales. Fintech revenue comes from payment-processing fees on and off the platform, interest income on consumer and merchant loans made through Mercado Credito, and fees on financial products such as insurance and asset management. Brazil, Argentina and Mexico together generate the large majority of both.

セグメント別売上高

Commerce56.4%

Marketplace commissions, shipping, advertising and first-party retail sales across Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and other Latin American markets.

Fintech43.6%

Mercado Pago's payment processing, consumer and merchant lending, insurance and asset-management fees, both on and off the marketplace.

競争優位性(moat)

ネットワーク効果 · 広い

More buyers attract more sellers, which funds the logistics network that makes delivery faster, which attracts more buyers — a loop MercadoLibre has been running longer and at greater scale than any Latin American rival. Mercado Pago's credit and payments layer, built on years of transaction data across the region, adds a second reinforcing loop that a marketplace-only competitor cannot easily copy.

需要を左右する要因

中程度の景気循環性

E-commerce and digital payments penetration in Latin America is still rising structurally, giving MercadoLibre a growth tailwind independent of the economic cycle, but consumer spending and credit demand in Brazil, Argentina and Mexico are exposed to inflation, currency swings and interest-rate cycles that can slow growth in any given year without reversing the longer trend.

主なリスク

  • Geographic and currency concentration — Brazil, Argentina and Mexico generate 95.6% of 2025 revenue; currency devaluation, inflation and Argentina's hyperinflationary accounting treatment all flow directly into reported results.
  • Credit risk in fintech lending — Mercado Credito's loan book has grown quickly; faster loan origination raises the risk that default rates rise before the company has enough history to price and provision for them accurately.
  • Financial regulation across multiple jurisdictions — As Mercado Pago expands into banking-like products across several countries, it becomes subject to evolving financial regulation in each one, which can raise compliance costs or restrict products.
  • Competition on two fronts at once — MercadoLibre competes against Amazon and Shopee in commerce and against traditional banks and other fintechs in payments and lending, simultaneously, in every market it serves.

強気材料

Buyers argue that MercadoLibre's combination of marketplace scale, proprietary logistics and a fast-growing fintech arm gives it a compounding advantage that pure e-commerce or pure fintech rivals in Latin America cannot match individually.

弱気材料

Sellers worry that near-total reliance on three volatile economies exposes results to currency and inflation swings largely outside the company's control, and that the fast-growing loan book could turn from a growth driver into a source of losses if credit conditions deteriorate.

2025会計年度のセグメントデータ情報源: MercadoLibre, Inc. — Form 10-K, fiscal year 2025

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 20.0Score: 69Market cap: $2.69T

Amazon runs the same marketplace-plus-own-logistics model in Brazil and Mexico, chasing MercadoLibre's shoppers and its third-party sellers with free shipping and fulfilment services.

P/E: 8.5Score: 71Market cap: $111.31B

Temu attacks the same price-sensitive Latin American shopper with cross-border listings, taking orders that would otherwise go through MercadoLibre's marketplace.

Sea Limited (Shopee)SE

Its Shopee marketplace has become MercadoLibre's fastest-growing rival in Brazil and Mexico, competing for the same low-ticket general-merchandise orders and the same seller base.

Magazine Luiza S.A. (Magalu)MGLU3

Magalu is the leading Brazilian retailer-turned-marketplace, selling the same electronics and home categories online to the same Brazilian households.

Nu Holdings Ltd. (Nubank)NU

Nubank competes head-on with Mercado Pago for digital accounts, payments and consumer credit among the same Brazilian and Mexican customers.

Falabella S.A.Not tracked

Falabella's department stores and its online marketplace compete for the same Chilean, Peruvian and Colombian shoppers in apparel, home and electronics.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$24.46B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$1.86B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$10.77B

自己資本合計

$6.75B

負債合計

$35.92B

流動比率

1.12

利払い倍率

-

負債/EBITDA

4.99

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

一般的なケース適正価値

適正価値

$2198.07

現在株価

$1686.11

安全マージン

+23.3%

適正価値レンジ

$1476.57 - $2919.57

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$2272.28
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):$2935.93
利益倍率(P/E):$1336.16
グレアムの成長公式:$599.43
収益力価値(EPV):$365.82
正当化されたP/B:$325.36
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):$888.42
中間サイクル利益:$1385.87
売上高倍率:$1191.98
アナリスト・コンセンサス:強い買い (25B / 5H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+4.09%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

45.83

ROE

29.6%

P/B レシオ

10.91

P/FCF

6.88

粗利益率

61.4%

ROIC

15.3%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

15.3%

WACC

10.1%

ROIC − WACC

+5.2 pp

ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 30.62%
  • Price CAGR 27.69%
  • ROIC 15.3%
  • Gross Margin 61.4%
  • P/FCF 6.88
  • Operating Margin 11.9%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 26.5%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 48.7%
  • Analyst Consensus 83% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 7.46
  • Share Dilution -0.0%

不合格(7)

  • P/B Ratio 10.91
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -5.3%
  • Net Margin Trend 7.6% vs 11.9%
  • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

データなし(3)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-スコア

4/9

まちまちのシグナル:一部の領域に注意が必要

score
criteria

利益の質

7.46

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

0.0%

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Marcos Eduardo GalperínCo-Founder & Executive Chairman54
Mr. Ariel SzarfsztejnCEO & President42
Mr. Martin de los SantosExecutive VP & CFO55
Mr. Daniel RabinovichPresident of Technology & Operations47
Mr. Osvaldo GimenezFintech President54
Mr. Marcelo MelamudChief Accounting Officer & Senior VP54
Mr. Richard M. CathcartHead of Investor Relations-
Mr. Jacobo Cohen ImachSenior VP, General Counsel & Secretary-
Mr. Sean SummersChief Marketing Officer & EVP Advertising-
Mr. Juan Martin De La SernaExecutive VP of Corporate Affairs & President of Argentina57

監査リスク

7

取締役会リスク

10

報酬リスク

5

株主権利リスク

7

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

書類

  • 年次報告書(10-K)

    事業内容、財務実績、リスクをまとめた年次の概要。

    提出日: 2026-02-25

    書類を見る
  • 四半期報告書(10-Q)

    直近3か月間の業績に関する最新情報。

    提出日: 2026-08-06

    書類を見る
  • 臨時報告書(8-K)

    経営陣の交代や重要な発表など、大きな出来事に関するお知らせ。

    提出日: 2026-09-14

    書類を見る

via SEC EDGAR

業績推移

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for MELI, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 8/5/2026POSITIVE
    MercadoLibre Beats Estimates as Quarterly Sales Top $10 Billion

    MercadoLibre Inc. reported second-quarter sales exceeding $10 billion, surpassing analyst expectations. This performance underscores robust demand for its e-commerce and fintech services across Latin America, even amidst intensifying competition. The company's ability to grow its top line indicates strong market positioning and effective execution. Investors will likely view this as a positive indicator of sustained growth potential and resilience in a dynamic regional market, potentially leading to increased confidence in the stock.

  • 8/5/2026NEGATIVE
    MercadoLibre Tumbles as E-Commerce Giant Hints at More Spending

    MercadoLibre Inc. shares experienced a significant drop in late trading following the company's second-quarter earnings report. Despite beating consensus estimates for both sales and profits, investors reacted negatively to hints of increased future spending. This forward-looking guidance on expenditure appears to have overshadowed the positive quarterly results, raising concerns about potential impacts on future profitability and margins. The market's reaction suggests a cautious sentiment towards the e-commerce giant's growth strategy and its ability to manage costs effectively in the near term.

  • 6/5/2026POSITIVE
    If You Invested $1000 In MercadoLibre Stock 15 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today

    An investment of $1000 in MercadoLibre (MELI) 15 years ago would have yielded a substantial return, illustrating the company's remarkable growth trajectory. While specific figures are not provided in the prompt, the article's premise suggests significant capital appreciation, likely driven by the company's dominance in Latin American e-commerce and fintech sectors. Investors who held MELI stock over this period would have benefited from its expansion into new markets, innovative product offerings, and strong financial performance, underscoring its status as a high-growth technology stock.

  • 5/15/2026POSITIVE
    $100 Invested In MercadoLibre 15 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today

    An investment of $100 in MercadoLibre 15 years ago would have yielded a substantial return, highlighting the company's remarkable growth trajectory. While specific figures are not provided in the title, this implies significant outperformance compared to broader market indices. MercadoLibre, often referred to as the 'Amazon of Latin America,' has consistently expanded its e-commerce and fintech operations across the region. Investors who held the stock through its various growth phases have benefited from its expansion into new markets, product lines, and its robust digital payment ecosystem, Mercado Pago.

  • 5/8/2026NEGATIVE
    Mercado Libre (MELI) Stock Is Trending Overnight: Here's What You Should Know

    Mercado Libre Inc. experienced a significant overnight decline, with shares falling over 5% in after-hours trading. This downturn followed the release of the company's first-quarter financial results, which presented a mixed picture for investors. While the e-commerce and fintech giant reported robust revenue growth, it failed to meet earnings per share (EPS) expectations. This EPS miss, despite strong top-line performance, suggests potential margin pressures or higher-than-anticipated operating costs, raising concerns about profitability efficiency.

  • 4/1/2026NEUTRAL
    E-commerce giant Mercado Libre to sunset rewards-based Mercado Coin: Report

    Mercado Libre is reportedly sunsetting its rewards-based cryptocurrency, Mercado Coin. This move signals a strategic shift away from its own tokenized rewards program. However, the company is not abandoning its digital currency initiatives entirely, as it continues to support Meli Dolar (MUSD), a US-dollar stablecoin launched earlier in 2024. Investors will monitor how this pivot impacts customer engagement and the broader adoption of MUSD within the Mercado Libre ecosystem.

  • 4/1/2026NEUTRAL
    E-commerce giant MercadoLibre to sunset rewards-based Mercado Coin: Report

    MercadoLibre is reportedly phasing out its rewards-based cryptocurrency, Mercado Coin. While this specific digital asset will be sunset, the e-commerce giant is not abandoning its digital currency strategy entirely. MercadoLibre continues to support its US-dollar stablecoin, Meli Dolar (MUSD), which was launched in 2024. This pivot suggests a strategic shift away from a proprietary rewards token towards more stable, fiat-pegged digital assets, potentially to mitigate volatility risks associated with pure crypto rewards.

  • 3/15/2026NEGATIVE
    MercadoLibre Stock Just Plunged After Earnings. Buy the Dip -- or Run for the Hills?

    MercadoLibre Inc. experienced a significant stock price decline following its latest earnings report, prompting debate among investors about whether to buy the dip or exit positions. While the company is a dominant player in Latin American e-commerce, specific underperformance in a key area of its operations has raised concerns. Investors are closely watching for further details on the extent of this underperformance and management's strategy to address it, as it could impact future growth trajectories and profitability.

  • 3/12/2026NEUTRAL
    MercadoLibre Is Down 33% in Recent Months. Is This a Once-in-a-Lifetime Buying Opportunity?

    MercadoLibre Inc. has experienced a significant decline, with its stock price falling 33% in recent months. While the company has a history of overcoming challenges, the current market sentiment and the extent of the stock's drop raise questions about whether this presents a 'once-in-a-lifetime' buying opportunity for investors. The article suggests that despite past resilience, the current downturn warrants careful consideration of the company's fundamentals and future prospects before making an investment decision.

via Markets Gazette