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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)

適正価値
Communication ServicesEntertainmentUnited States

ファンダメンタル

73

株価

$67.58

時価総額

$298.64B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Netflix produces and licenses TV shows and films and streams them to paying members over the internet, with no physical discs or theatres involved. It operates worldwide, offering the same core service everywhere but adapting price, local-language content and, in most markets, an ad-supported cheaper tier to fit what each region can pay.

収益の仕組み

Nearly all revenue comes from monthly membership fees, so growth depends on adding subscribers and raising prices without pushing them to cancel. A smaller and growing slice comes from advertising sold against the cheaper ad-supported plan. Content costs are largely fixed once a show is made, so each additional subscriber watching it adds revenue at very little extra cost, which is why profitability rises faster than the subscriber count.

セグメント別売上高

United States and Canada (UCAN)44.2%

The largest and most mature region, with the highest price per member of anywhere Netflix operates.

Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA)32.1%

The second-largest region by revenue, growing faster than UCAN as membership and pricing both climb.

Latin America (LATAM)11.9%

A mature but lower-priced market for Netflix, with membership growth now the main lever left for revenue.

Asia-Pacific (APAC)11.8%

The smallest region but the fastest-growing, now matching Latin America in revenue for the first time.

競争優位性(moat)

規模の経済 · 狭い

Netflix's largest advantage is spreading a multi-billion-dollar content budget across roughly 300 million paying households, letting it outbid smaller streamers for content while charging a comparatively modest monthly fee. That scale is real but not permanent: well-funded rivals with their own content libraries — Disney, Amazon, Apple — can and do compete for the same subscribers and the same shows.

需要を左右する要因

ディフェンシブ

A monthly streaming subscription is a small, discretionary expense that most members keep even when tightening their budget elsewhere, which has made Netflix's subscriber base historically resilient through downturns. The bigger swing factor is not the economy but whether the current content slate is strong enough to keep people from cancelling.

主なリスク

  • Content and sports rights costs — Netflix is bidding against deep-pocketed rivals for the same films, series and live sports rights. Rising content costs, including a growing push into live events, pressure margins if they outpace subscriber and price growth.
  • Streaming competition — Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+ and others compete for the same subscription budget and the same viewing hours, and several bundle streaming with other services Netflix cannot match.
  • Currency exposure — With most subscribers now outside the United States, revenue and reported earnings move with exchange rates in ways management does not fully control.
  • Slowing subscriber growth in mature markets — UCAN and EMEA are large, penetrated markets where most of the future growth Netflix needs must come from price increases and advertising rather than new members, both of which have limits.

強気材料

Buyers argue that Netflix's global scale and content budget remain unmatched among pure streamers, that the ad-supported tier and password-sharing crackdown opened new avenues for revenue without needing endless subscriber growth, and that margins still have room to expand as the business matures.

弱気材料

Sellers fear that subscriber growth in the largest, most profitable markets is running out of room, that content and live-sports costs keep climbing as competitors bid for the same titles, and that a business built on discretionary spending is more exposed to a downturn than its recent history suggests.

2025会計年度のセグメントデータ情報源: Netflix, Inc. — Form 10-K, fiscal year 2025Netflix Investor Relations

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 20.9Score: 64Market cap: $182.32B

Disney+ and Hulu sell the same monthly subscription to the same households Netflix targets, and both companies bid against each other for films, series and sports rights.

P/E: 20.0Score: 69Market cap: $2.69T

Prime Video competes for the same viewing hours and the same advertising budgets worldwide, and its studio arm bids for the same content and talent as Netflix.

P/E: 106.3Score: 49Market cap: $77.43B

HBO Max is the closest rival on premium scripted series, the segment Netflix built its brand on, and remains a separate listed company while the Paramount Skydance purchase is held up in court.

P/E: 16.8Score: 69Market cap: $4.15T

YouTube takes more U.S. television viewing time than any streaming service, so it competes directly for the leisure hours and the ad money Netflix wants.

P/E: —Score: 47Market cap: $10,330

Paramount+ and the free service Pluto TV chase the same subscribers and the same ad-supported viewers, with sports rights as the main lever.

P/E: 7.0Score: 72Market cap: $45.66B

Peacock puts NBCUniversal films and live sports in front of the same U.S. households, and Comcast's cable television business competes for the same entertainment spending.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$48.37B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$13.65B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$9.46B

自己資本合計

$26.62B

負債合計

$28.98B

流動比率

1.14

利払い倍率

16.94

負債/EBITDA

2.27

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

一般的なケース適正価値

適正価値

$78.51

現在株価

$67.58

安全マージン

+13.9%

適正価値レンジ

$51.03 - $105.99

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$92.93
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):$66.52
利益倍率(P/E):$61.10
グレアムの成長公式:$163.71
収益力価値(EPV):$23.84
正当化されたP/B:$26.44
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):$43.48
中間サイクル利益:$22.86
売上高倍率:$23.33
アナリスト・コンセンサス:買い (43B / 15H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:-0.52%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

21.34

ROE

41.3%

P/B レシオ

9.37

P/FCF

25.33

粗利益率

49.1%

ROIC

24.5%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

24.5%

WACC

12.3%

ROIC − WACC

+12.2 pp

ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(22)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 5.47%
  • Price CAGR 19.15%
  • ROIC 24.5%
  • Gross Margin 49.1%
  • P/FCF 25.33
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 29.7%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 48.0%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 12.6%
  • Analyst Consensus 74% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 0.66
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.88
  • Share Dilution -1.4%
  • Net Margin Trend 28.2% vs 24.6%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

不合格(5)

  • P/B Ratio 9.37
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -7.1%

データなし(1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-スコア

7/9

財務健全性が高い

score
criteria

利益の質

0.88

中程度:利益とキャッシュの間にギャップがある

株式希薄化

-1.4%

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Theodore A. SarandosCo-CEO, President & Director60
Mr. Gregory K. PetersCo-CEO, President & Director54
Mr. Spencer Adam NeumannChief Financial Officer55
Mr. David Hyman J.D.Chief Legal Officer & Secretary59
Mr. Clete WillemsChief Global Affairs Officer45
Ms. Natalie GutteridgeVP of Corporate Legal & Operations-
Mr. Jeffrey William KarbowskiChief Accounting Officer46
Ms. Elizabeth StoneChief Product & Technology Officer-
Mr. Spencer WangVice President of Finance, Corporate Development & Investor Relations-
Ms. Dani DudeckChief Communications Officer-

監査リスク

10

取締役会リスク

3

報酬リスク

6

株主権利リスク

5

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

書類

  • 年次報告書(10-K)

    事業内容、財務実績、リスクをまとめた年次の概要。

    提出日: 2026-01-23

    書類を見る
  • 四半期報告書(10-Q)

    直近3か月間の業績に関する最新情報。

    提出日: 2026-07-17

    書類を見る
  • 臨時報告書(8-K)

    経営陣の交代や重要な発表など、大きな出来事に関するお知らせ。

    提出日: 2026-07-30

    書類を見る

via SEC EDGAR

業績推移

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for NFLX, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 4h agoNEGATIVE
    Le azioni Netflix hanno perso il 14% a settembre: NFLX è da comprare dopo lo sell-off?

    Netflix shares experienced a significant decline of 14% in September, contributing to a broader 18% loss over the past month and a 25% year-to-date drop. This sell-off is driven by concerns over slowing user engagement, a less impactful content pipeline, and intensifying competition. Adding to investor worries, co-CEO Ted Sarandos acknowledged that the company's growth has not been rapid enough. The stock is now heading for its fifth consecutive week of losses, signaling significant headwinds for the streaming giant.

  • 3d agoPOSITIVE
    Here’s what Netflix skeptics are getting wrong about the stock, according to an analyst

    Deutsche Bank analysts are challenging skepticism surrounding Netflix stock, arguing that investors are overly focused on domestic market saturation and are consequently overlooking significant growth opportunities internationally. The firm suggests that expanding subscriber bases and revenue streams in emerging markets are not being adequately priced into the current valuation. This perspective implies that Netflix's global reach and diversified revenue model provide a more robust growth narrative than commonly perceived, potentially leading to a reassessment of its future earnings potential and stock performance.

  • 10d agoNEGATIVE
    Netflix: azioni in calo, HSBC cita YouTube e calo del coinvolgimento

    Netflix shares fell 2% on Tuesday following an downgrade by HSBC, which cited increasing competition from Alphabet's YouTube and concerns over viewer engagement. HSBC downgraded Netflix to Neutral from Buy, slashing its price target from $96 to $76. The firm highlighted YouTube's growing share of US television viewing, suggesting a near-term rebound in Netflix engagement is less likely. YouTube has captured a record 14.2% of TV time, posing a significant challenge to Netflix's market position and future growth prospects.

  • 14d agoNEGATIVE
    Dow apre in calo di 90 punti mentre Buffett si dimette, azioni Netflix -5%

    Netflix shares plunged 5% in early trading following news of Warren Buffett's resignation from the company's board. While the broader US markets opened mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 93 points, the S&P 500 flat, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.33%, the significant drop in Netflix stock highlights investor reaction to the departure of a prominent figure. This move comes after a volatile week where markets experienced a sharp rebound on Thursday, driven by falling Treasury yields and cooling inflation data, but the specific news regarding Netflix appears to be a strong negative catalyst for its shares.

  • 18d agoPOSITIVE
    Azioni Netflix in rialzo dopo che Evercore alza il target a $110

    Netflix shares surged approximately 4.3% following Evercore ISI's upward revision of its price target to $110 from $100, maintaining an 'Outperform' rating. This new target suggests a potential 42% upside from Netflix's prior closing price. Evercore cited improving subscriber trends in the US and Japan, alongside growth avenues in live events, short-form content, and advertising. Analyst Kutgun Maral highlighted that Netflix's US penetration has reached a multi-year high of 63%. For investors, this indicates strong market positioning and potential for continued growth.

  • 8/13/2026POSITIVE
    Bill Ackman once exited his Netflix stake in a huff. He’s buying the streaming giant again, as well as these five stocks.

    Prominent investor Bill Ackman, through his hedge fund Pershing Square, has re-entered a significant position in Netflix Inc. This move comes after a previous exit, signaling a renewed conviction in the streaming giant's prospects. Pershing Square has acquired stakes in five other undisclosed stocks over the past six months, indicating a broader strategic shift or rebalancing within Ackman's portfolio. The re-investment in Netflix suggests Ackman believes the company's valuation has become attractive, potentially driven by anticipated subscriber growth, content strategy adjustments, or improved profitability metrics. Investors will monitor Netflix's upcoming earnings reports for confirmation of these positive trends.

via Markets Gazette