Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC)
適正価値ファンダメンタル
63
株価
$307.63
時価総額
$70.31B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Norfolk Southern Corporation is a Class I freight railroad operating roughly 19,100 route miles in the Southeast, East and Midwest of the United States. It hauls raw materials, intermediate products and finished goods for industrial shippers, energy producers and intermodal customers, and it is one of the few railroads serving the eastern half of the country, where its main rail competitor is CSX. In July 2025 Norfolk Southern agreed to merge with Union Pacific; the transaction requires approval from the Surface Transportation Board and had not closed as of the 2025 annual report.
収益の仕組み
Revenue comes from freight charges for moving cars and intermodal containers over the network: the company is paid per carload or per container, so revenue is the product of volume and average revenue per unit. About 90% of railway operating revenues are earned under private contracts and exempt price quotes rather than published common-carrier tariffs, and many contracts include fuel surcharges that pass part of the diesel cost back to shippers. In 2025 railway operating revenues were about $12.2 billion.
セグメント別売上高
Carload freight in four commodity groups — agriculture, forest and consumer products; chemicals; metals and construction; and automotive — moved for industrial and agricultural shippers. It handled about 2.3 million carloads in 2025.
Containers and trailers carried on rail for steamship lines, truckers and logistics intermediaries, in competition with long-haul trucking. About 4.1 million units were handled in 2025.
Thermal coal for electric utilities and metallurgical coal for steelmakers and export terminals. About 78.0 million tons were hauled in 2025, and revenue fell year over year.
競争優位性(moat)
コスト優位性 · 広いA railroad's advantage rests on assets that cannot realistically be rebuilt: roughly 19,100 route miles of right of way assembled over more than a century, with regulatory and land-acquisition barriers that make a competing eastern network essentially impossible to create. Over long distances rail moves bulk freight at a fuel and labour cost per ton-mile that trucking cannot match, and on many industrial sites Norfolk Southern is the only carrier physically connected to the plant. The limits are real too: the Surface Transportation Board has jurisdiction over rates, routes and customer access, and on lanes where a truck or a barge is a practical substitute the company's own filing describes strong competition on transit time, price and reliability.
需要を左右する要因
景気循環型Volumes track industrial production, housing and construction activity, car assembly, grain harvests, steel output and container imports, so traffic rises and falls with the broader economy rather than with any single contract cycle. The intermodal book follows consumer goods imports and the truckload market, and it loses share to trucking whenever spot trucking rates fall. Coal is in structural decline as utilities retire coal-fired plants, while metallurgical coal depends on steel demand and on export markets. Because the network carries a heavy fixed cost of track, equipment and crews, a fall in volume hits margins faster than it hits revenue.
主なリスク
- The Union Pacific mergers may not be completed — The company discloses that completion of the mergers is subject to a number of conditions and to receipt of the requisite regulatory approvals, which may never be obtained, and that failure to complete the transaction could have material adverse effects. It also warns that the uncertainty of the process may cause the loss of management personnel and other key employees.
- Obligation to carry hazardous materials — As a common carrier by rail the company must offer to transport hazardous materials, which exposes it to significant costs. The filing describes the February 3, 2023 derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, involving vinyl chloride tank cars, as the kind of incident that carries large remediation, litigation and reputational consequences.
- Regulatory and legislative oversight of the rail industry — The Surface Transportation Board has jurisdiction, to varying extents, over rates, routes and customer access provisions. The company states that additional oversight and regulation of the rail industry could have a significant negative impact on its ability to run the business as it chooses.
- Competition from other transportation providers — The company competes with motor carriers, other railroads and water carriers on transit time, pricing and service quality. Its filing notes continuing strong competition among rail, water and highway carriers and identifies CSX as its primary rail competitor.
- Energy price volatility — The company states it may be negatively affected by energy prices and that volatility in those prices could have a significant effect on results, since diesel is a major operating cost and fuel surcharges recover it only with a lag and only in part.
- Cybersecurity and technology disruption — A significant cybersecurity incident or other disruption to the technology infrastructure is disclosed as a risk; the company describes a vast threat landscape with potential attacks from cybercriminals and nation-states against systems that dispatch and control train operations.
- Dependence on key suppliers and network capacity — The company is dependent on certain key suppliers and manufacturers — locomotives and rail equipment have few sources — and a disruption to one or more of them could negatively affect operating efficiency. Capacity constraints, including employee shortages, are cited as an operational risk.
顧客集中度
The annual report does not disclose the share of revenue coming from the largest customers, and no customer is identified as material. What it does disclose is the shape of the commercial book: about 90% of railway operating revenues are earned under private contracts and exempt price quotes, so pricing is negotiated customer by customer rather than set by public tariff. Traffic is spread across four merchandise commodity groups, intermodal and coal, which limits exposure to any single shipper, though individual coal and automotive lanes can be concentrated in a few plants or terminals.
強気材料
Buyers argue that the eastern network is an asset nobody can replicate, that price is largely negotiated rather than dictated by a fragmented competitor set, and that operating results have been improving: income from railway operations rose 7% in 2025 to $4,356 million on lower operating expenses and slightly higher revenues, with merchandise revenue up 3%. They point to the pending Union Pacific merger as a second source of value, offering cash and stock rather than depending on the standalone plan, and to the long-run argument that rail is the cheapest and least fuel-intensive way to move heavy freight over long distances.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that the merger may never be approved: the company itself discloses that the requisite regulatory approvals may never be obtained, that failure to complete could have material adverse effects, and that the uncertainty may cost it key employees. They also point to the operating picture underneath: coal revenue fell 8% and intermodal fell 1% in 2025, so growth rests on one of the three books. Beyond that they worry about the cost of being a common carrier of hazardous materials, with East Palestine as the reference case, about a Surface Transportation Board that can reach into rates, routes and customer access, and about a fixed-cost network whose margins compress quickly when industrial volumes turn down or truckload rates undercut intermodal.
Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Norfolk Southern names CSX as its primary rail competitor, because the two railroads run parallel networks across much of the same eastern United States territory and bid for the same freight from the same shippers.
Union Pacific is the dominant railroad in the western United States and competes with Norfolk Southern for long-haul interline and intermodal traffic moving between the two halves of the country, although the two companies have filed with the Surface Transportation Board to merge.
CPKC runs the only single-line network linking Canada, the US Midwest and Mexico and competes with Norfolk Southern for automotive, chemical and intermodal traffic in the Chicago, Detroit and Gulf gateways.
BNSF, owned by Berkshire Hathaway, is the other western Class I railroad and competes directly with Norfolk Southern for transcontinental intermodal volumes, especially through its service alliance with CSX in the Southeast.
Canadian National reaches from Canada down to the Gulf of Mexico through Chicago and Memphis and overlaps with Norfolk Southern on Midwest-to-South lanes for grain, forest products and intermodal freight.
As the largest US truckload carrier, Knight-Swift is one of the motor carriers Norfolk Southern cites as competition, winning shipments over rail when customers prioritise speed and door-to-door delivery.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$12.54B
直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)
純利益
$2.64B
直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)
フリーキャッシュフロー
$2.16B
自己資本合計
$15.55B
負債合計
$29.69B
流動比率
0.83
利払い倍率
5.13
負債/EBITDA
2.89
一株当たり利益(EPS)
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$278.10
現在株価
$307.63
安全マージン
-10.6%
適正価値レンジ
$206.01 - $350.20
使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
26.37
ROE
18.5%
P/B レシオ
4.27
P/FCF
42.55
粗利益率
-
ROIC
7.6%
収益性レーダー
価値創造(経済的モート)
ROIC
7.6%
WACC
9.7%
ROIC − WACC
-2.1 pp
ROICが資本コストを下回っています。投資した1ドルごとに企業は価値を破壊しています。
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格(17)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 7.15%
- Price CAGR 11.48%
- ROIC 7.6%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 32.2%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 16.8%
- Earnings Surprise avg 6.9%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.42
- Share Dilution -0.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
不合格(9)
- P/FCF 42.55
- P/B Ratio 4.27
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Revenue Growth 5Y 4.5%
- Analyst Consensus 31% Buy
- PEG Ratio 2.61
- Net Margin Trend 21.0% vs 27.5%
データなし(2)
- Gross Margin NaN%
- Dividend Payout NaN%
Piotroski F-スコア
まちまちのシグナル:一部の領域に注意が必要
利益の質
高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的
機関投資家の保有
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Mark R. George | President, CEO & Director | 57 |
| Mr. Jason A. Zampi | Executive VP & CFO | 50 |
| Mr. Anil Bhatt | Executive VP and Chief Information & Digital Officer | - |
| Mr. Claude E. Elkins Jr. | Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer | 59 |
| Mr. Brian Barr | Chief Operating Officer | 46 |
| Michael T. Barr | Vice President Treasurer & Investor Relations and Integrated Resource Planning | - |
| Mr. Jason M. Morris | Senior Vice President & Chief Legal Officer | - |
| Ms. Angela D. Kolar | VP & Chief Compliance Officer | - |
| Ms. Elizabeth Talton-Buck | VP & Chief Communications Officer | - |
| Ms. Ann A. Adams Ph.D. | Chief Human Resources Officer | 54 |
監査リスク
10
取締役会リスク
1
報酬リスク
3
株主権利リスク
6
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
業績推移
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for NSC, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 4/27/2026NEUTRALNorfolk Southern Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Norfolk Southern Corporation has released its Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript. The document provides detailed insights into the company's financial performance, operational updates, and strategic outlook for the upcoming periods. Investors and analysts can review management's commentary on key business segments, capital expenditures, and any forward-looking statements. While the transcript itself is informational, it serves as a crucial resource for understanding the company's trajectory and potential future performance, allowing for informed investment decisions based on the disclosed data and discussions.
- 4/24/2026POSITIVETop Wall Street Forecasters Revamp Norfolk Southern Expectations Ahead Of Q1 Earnings
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) is set to release its Q1 earnings on April 24. While analysts anticipate a year-over-year decrease in EPS from $2.69 to $2.49, the stock experienced a significant 7.8% surge on Friday. This price action, despite the earnings forecast, suggests underlying positive sentiment or anticipation of factors that could outweigh the projected earnings decline. Investors will be closely watching the earnings call for management's outlook on operational improvements and future growth prospects, which could further support the stock's recent upward momentum.
via Markets Gazette