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Old National Bancorp (ONB)

適正価値
Financial ServicesBanks - RegionalUnited States

ファンダメンタル

60

株価

$24.64

時価総額

$9.60B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Old National Bancorp is the holding company for Old National Bank, a regional bank operating 346 banking centers across the Midwest and Southeast United States. It earns money the way most commercial banks do: taking deposits, making commercial and consumer loans, and charging fees for wealth management, trust and capital-markets services. The bank traces its roots to 1834 and has grown mainly through acquisitions, most recently absorbing Bremer Financial Corporation in 2025.

収益の仕組み

Revenue is mostly net interest income: the spread between interest earned on loans and securities and interest paid on deposits and borrowings. Lending covers commercial, commercial real estate, residential and consumer loans. A smaller share comes from noninterest income — service charges on deposit accounts, and fees from wealth management, brokerage and capital-markets activities. Profitability rises when loan demand and interest margins are healthy and falls when credit losses or funding costs increase.

需要を左右する要因

中程度の景気循環性

Old National's earnings depend on the health of the regional economy: unemployment, business confidence and interest rates directly affect loan demand, credit losses and deposit costs. The company states that unfavorable economic conditions have in the past reduced earnings by weakening borrowers' ability to repay, and that tariff and geopolitical uncertainty can add further volatility.

主なリスク

  • Credit losses tied to economic conditions — Old National states that unfavorable or uncertain economic conditions — recession, unemployment, falling real estate values — have adversely affected, and could again affect, borrowers' ability to repay loans and the value of collateral securing them.
  • Competition from banks and fintechs — The company competes with banks nationally and locally, and increasingly with financial-technology firms that have obtained bank or industrial-loan charters, which it says makes it harder to compete effectively for clients and deposits.
  • Deposit funding and liquidity risk — Old National must maintain adequate deposits and wholesale funding to support lending. It warns that if it cannot maintain or grow deposits, it may face higher funding costs, and unrealized losses in its securities portfolio could affect liquidity.
  • Cybersecurity and third-party vendor risk — The bank relies on external vendors and technology systems it does not fully control; a security breach or vendor failure could disrupt operations, expose customer data, and harm results, the company states.
  • Capital and regulatory requirements — As a regulated bank holding company, Old National must meet capital adequacy rules set by federal regulators, who can restrict dividends or lending if requirements are not met, and standards can change over time.

強気材料

Buyers argue that Old National's growth through acquisitions like Bremer has built a scale advantage across the Midwest and Southeast, that its funding base is diversified across many depositors, and that disciplined underwriting has kept credit costs manageable through past economic cycles.

弱気材料

Sellers fear that continued reliance on acquisitions carries integration risk, that competition from larger banks and fintech lenders pressures margins, and that a downturn in the regional economy or commercial real estate values could raise credit losses faster than reserves can absorb.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 11.4Score: 76Market cap: $9.57B

Both are Midwest commercial banks of similar scale fighting for the same middle-market business borrowers and retail deposits across the Chicago metropolitan area and southern Wisconsin, where Old National built its second home base with the First Midwest merger.

P/E: 11.7Score: 67Market cap: $31.04B

Huntington competes branch-for-branch with Old National in Indiana, Michigan and Illinois for consumer accounts and small-business and commercial credit, with far greater resources behind the same products.

P/E: 17.3Score: 66Market cap: $46.67B

Fifth Third is one of the largest deposit takers in Old National's core Indiana, Kentucky, Illinois and Tennessee markets and courts the same commercial and wealth clients there.

P/E: 11.7Score: 64Market cap: $2.51B

First Merchants is the other large Indiana-headquartered bank, chasing the same community and small-business relationships in Indiana, Ohio, Michigan and Illinois that form Old National's historic franchise.

P/E: 11.1Score: 67Market cap: $3.29B

The Cincinnati-based regional bank works the same Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio territory with a comparable mix of commercial lending, treasury services and retail branches.

Associated Banc-CorpASB

The Green Bay-based bank overlaps with Old National across Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota with an almost identical offer of commercial lending, wealth management and branch retail banking to the same regional customers.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$2.74B

直近12か月(2026/3/31まで)

純利益

$758M

直近12か月(2026/3/31まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$637M

自己資本合計

$8.49B

負債合計

$63.66B

流動比率

-

利払い倍率

0.43

負債/EBITDA

-

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

銀行適正価値

適正価値

$23.66

現在株価

$24.64

安全マージン

-4.2%

適正価値レンジ

$17.62 - $29.71

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$30.07
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):この種の企業には適用されません
利益倍率(P/E):$20.11
グレアムの成長公式:この種の企業には適用されません
収益力価値(EPV):この種の企業には適用されません
正当化されたP/B:$25.86
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):$12.13
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):この種の企業には適用されません
中間サイクル利益:この種の企業には適用されません
売上高倍率:この種の企業には適用されません
アナリスト・コンセンサス:買い (10B / 5H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+2.19%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

12.70

ROE

7.9%

P/B レシオ

1.12

P/FCF

13.07

粗利益率

-

ROIC

-

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

-

WACC

12.1%

ROIC − WACC

-

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(13)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • P/FCF 13.07
  • P/B Ratio 1.12
  • Operating Margin 34.9%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • ROE 10.5%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 24.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 67% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 1.75
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.03

不合格(10)

  • EPS CAGR 3.80%
  • Price CAGR 3.15%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg 2.2%
  • Share Dilution 16.5%
  • Net Margin Trend 27.7% vs 29.2%
  • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

データなし(5)

  • ROIC NaN%
  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA

Piotroski F-スコア

3/9

重大な財務上の懸念

score
criteria

利益の質

1.03

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

16.5%

新株を発行しており、所有権を希薄化している

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. James C. Ryan IIICEO & Chairman53
Mr. Timothy M. Burke Jr.President & COO-
Mr. John Vincent Moran IVSenior Executive VP & CFO49
Ms. Kendra L. VanzoSenior EVP & Chief Administrative Officer58
Ms. Angela L. PutnamSenior VP & Chief Accounting Officer46
Mr. Matthew T. KeenChief Information Officer51
Lynell Durchholz CPASenior VP & Director of Investor Relations-
Mr. Nicholas J. ChulosExecutive VP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary65
Ms. Kathy A. SchoettlinChief Communications, Culture & Social Responsibility Officer54
Mr. James V. StadlerChief Marketing Officer61

監査リスク

4

取締役会リスク

4

報酬リスク

1

株主権利リスク

7

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

書類

  • 年次報告書(10-K)

    事業内容、財務実績、リスクをまとめた年次の概要。

    提出日: 2026-02-19

    書類を見る
  • 四半期報告書(10-Q)

    直近3か月間の業績に関する最新情報。

    提出日: 2026-07-29

    書類を見る
  • 臨時報告書(8-K)

    経営陣の交代や重要な発表など、大きな出来事に関するお知らせ。

    提出日: 2026-08-12

    書類を見る

via SEC EDGAR

業績推移

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for ONB, sourced from Markets Gazette.

No recent news for ONB.