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O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY)

適正価値
Consumer CyclicalAuto PartsUnited States

ファンダメンタル

75

株価

$84.42

時価総額

$69.76B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

O'Reilly Automotive sells replacement auto parts, tools, supplies and accessories through a large chain of retail stores backed by its own distribution network. It serves two very different customers with the same stores: everyday drivers fixing their own cars, and professional repair shops that need a part delivered within the hour to finish a job. Owning the distribution chain rather than relying on outside wholesalers is what lets it promise that speed.

収益の仕組み

Revenue is booked at the point of sale, whether over the counter to a walk-in customer or delivered to a professional repair shop's account. The DIY and professional halves of the business are roughly equal in size but behave differently: DIY sales follow store traffic and weather-driven repair needs, while professional sales depend on account relationships and, above all, on how fast O'Reilly can get the right part to a shop, which is what its hub-and-distribution-center network is built to deliver.

セグメント別売上高

DIY Retail50%

Parts and accessories sold over the counter to individual customers repairing their own vehicles.

Professional Service Provider50%

Parts sold and delivered to professional repair shops and service technicians, O'Reilly's fastest-growing customer group.

競争優位性(moat)

規模の経済 · 狭い

A dense network of stores layered on regional distribution centers lets O'Reilly promise same-day or next-day parts availability that a small independent parts store cannot match, and that scale is expensive and slow for a new entrant to replicate. The advantage is real but not exclusive: a handful of comparably sized national chains run the same playbook, so no single player owns a durable edge.

需要を左右する要因

ディフェンシブ

Cars break down regardless of the economy, and an aging vehicle fleet on the road tends to need more parts over time, which makes demand fairly resistant to downturns; some drivers even shift from buying a new car to repairing an older one when money is tight, which can help O'Reilly. Store growth and comparable sales still track broader consumer spending at the margin.

主なリスク

  • Macroeconomic sensitivity of customers — The company cites inflation, consumer debt levels and general economic conditions as risks: deteriorating conditions can reduce product demand, limit customer and supplier access to credit, and cause financial hardship across the business.
  • Tariffs and trade policy — O'Reilly relies in part on imported parts, and new or increased tariffs raise costs and require further diversification of its supply chain, a process the company itself describes as ongoing rather than complete.
  • Intense competition in a fragmented market — The automotive aftermarket remains highly fragmented, and O'Reilly competes against comparably resourced national retailers as well as many independent and online sellers, limiting its pricing power.
  • Capital-intensive expansion — Growth depends on continuing to open new stores and expand the distribution network at a steady pace, which requires ongoing capital spending and execution; a slowdown in store openings would directly slow revenue growth.

強気材料

Buyers argue that O'Reilly's distribution density gives it a durable speed advantage with professional customers, that an aging US vehicle fleet supports steady parts demand regardless of new-car sales, and that a long track record of disciplined store expansion and share buybacks has compounded returns for shareholders for decades.

弱気材料

Sellers fear that O'Reilly competes against equally well-capitalized national rivals with no clear way to widen the gap, that tariffs on imported parts squeeze margins the company cannot fully offset with price increases, and that continued growth increasingly depends on opening stores in markets it knows less well, including outside the United States.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 19.5Score: 67Market cap: $47.56B

O'Reilly names AutoZone first among its competitors in its 10-K: the two run the largest US networks of auto parts stores and fight store-by-store for the same DIY motorists and the same professional repair shops.

P/E: 483.6Score: 46Market cap: $17.66B

Genuine Parts owns the NAPA network that O'Reilly's 10-K names as a competitor, and its distribution to independent garages goes head-to-head with O'Reilly's professional-installer business.

P/E: 12.8Score: 65Market cap: $5.82B

LKQ supplies aftermarket, recycled and specialty replacement parts to the same North American collision and mechanical repair shops that make up O'Reilly's professional customer base.

P/E: 20.0Score: 69Market cap: $2.69T

O'Reilly's 10-K names Amazon among the online retailers it competes with, because DIY customers can order the same parts and accessories online instead of walking into a store.

P/E: 37.7Score: 49Market cap: $853.59B

O'Reilly's 10-K lists Walmart among the mass merchandisers that take away sales of oil, batteries, wipers and other high-turnover maintenance items bought by DIY motorists.

Advance Auto Parts, Inc.AAP

Advance Auto Parts is the third national auto parts chain named in O'Reilly's 10-K, selling the same replacement parts from stores in the same American towns and to the same professional installers.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$18.57B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$2.65B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$1.59B

自己資本合計

$-763M

負債合計

$17.30B

流動比率

0.75

利払い倍率

14.37

負債/EBITDA

2.41

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

景気循環株適正価値

適正価値

$72.51

現在株価

$84.42

安全マージン

-16.4%

適正価値レンジ

$47.79 - $97.22

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$107.80
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):この種の企業には適用されません
利益倍率(P/E):$76.09
グレアムの成長公式:この種の企業には適用されません
収益力価値(EPV):$43.28
正当化されたP/B:この種の企業には適用されません
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):この種の企業には適用されません
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):この種の企業には適用されません
中間サイクル利益:$59.76
売上高倍率:この種の企業には適用されません
アナリスト・コンセンサス:強い買い (29B / 7H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:-2.25%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

27.11

ROE

-332.5%

P/B レシオ

-

P/FCF

32.04

粗利益率

51.6%

ROIC

36.7%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

36.7%

WACC

7.3%

ROIC − WACC

+29.4 pp

ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 16.56%
  • ROIC 36.7%
  • Gross Margin 51.6%
  • Operating Margin 19.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 423.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 8.9%
  • Analyst Consensus 81% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.24
  • Share Dilution -3.0%
  • Net Margin Trend 14.3% vs 14.2%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

不合格(5)

  • EPS CAGR 4.18%
  • P/FCF 32.04
  • CapEx intensity
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -1.1%

データなし(5)

  • P/B Ratio NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-スコア

7/9

財務健全性が高い

score
criteria

利益の質

1.24

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

-3.0%

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Gregory L. HensleeExecutive Chairman64
Mr. Brad W. BeckhamChief Executive Officer46
Mr. David E. O'ReillyExecutive Vice Chairman75
Mr. Brent G. KirbyPresident56
Mr. Jeremy Adam Fletcher CPAExecutive VP & CFO47
Mr. Scott Richard RossExecutive VP & Chief Information Officer59
Mr. Jason Lee TarrantExecutive Vice President of Store Operations & Sales44
Ms. Tamara F. ConnSenior VP of Legal & General Counsel54
Ms. Shari Lynne ReavesSenior Vice President of Human Resources & Training54
Mr. Robert Allen DumasSenior Vice President of Eastern Store Operations & Sales51

監査リスク

10

取締役会リスク

8

報酬リスク

8

株主権利リスク

7

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

書類

  • 年次報告書(10-K)

    事業内容、財務実績、リスクをまとめた年次の概要。

    提出日: 2026-02-27

    書類を見る
  • 四半期報告書(10-Q)

    直近3か月間の業績に関する最新情報。

    提出日: 2026-08-07

    書類を見る
  • 臨時報告書(8-K)

    経営陣の交代や重要な発表など、大きな出来事に関するお知らせ。

    提出日: 2026-08-14

    書類を見る

via SEC EDGAR

業績推移

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for ORLY, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 3/5/2026POSITIVE
    Can O'Reilly Automotive Stock Beat the Market?

    O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) has demonstrated exceptional performance over the past five years, with its shares more than tripling in value. This positive trend indicates strong growth and solid business management within the auto parts retail sector. For investors, this suggests a potential continuation of the upward trajectory, supported by consistent demand for vehicle maintenance and repair, making the stock an attractive candidate for a growth-oriented portfolio.

via Markets Gazette