Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
適正価値ファンダメンタル
49
株価
$373.08
時価総額
$1.49T
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Tesla designs, manufactures and sells electric vehicles directly to buyers, without a franchised dealer network, and builds its own battery cells at vertically integrated factories in the US, China and Germany. Alongside cars it sells energy-storage batteries and solar equipment to homes and utilities, and is pushing into new, unproven lines: paid driving-assistance software, a robotaxi service, and Optimus, a humanoid robot still in early development.
収益の仕組み
Tesla earns most of its money selling vehicles outright, recognizing revenue on delivery rather than through a dealer network, which keeps a larger slice of the sale price but pushes service, financing and inventory risk onto the company itself. It also sells high-margin regulatory emissions credits to other automakers who need them to meet clean-air rules. A growing services line covers Supercharging, insurance and paid driving-assistance software subscriptions.
セグメント別売上高
Sales and leases of electric vehicles, plus automotive regulatory credits sold to other manufacturers.
Megapack and Powerwall battery systems sold to utilities and homeowners, plus solar panels and roofing.
Used-car sales, paid Supercharging, non-warranty maintenance, insurance and parts and merchandise sales.
競争優位性（moat）
コスト優位性 · 狭いTesla builds its own battery cells and runs vertically integrated Gigafactories, which has kept its unit production costs below most legacy automakers and funded the largest fast-charging network in North America. But Chinese manufacturers such as BYD have matched or undercut Tesla's costs, so the advantage is narrowing rather than widening as competition intensifies.
需要を左右する要因
景気循環型Vehicle purchases are large, discretionary, and sensitive to interest rates, financing costs and government incentives, all of which can shift abruptly with policy changes. Demand has swung sharply in several markets as EV tax credits and subsidies were reduced or removed, showing how much of Tesla's volume depends on conditions outside its control.
主なリスク
- Intensifying EV competition — Chinese manufacturers and legacy automakers are launching competitive electric vehicles at lower prices, eroding the cost and technology lead Tesla built in its early years.
- Supplier and manufacturing dependence — Tesla relies on suppliers, including single-source ones, for critical components; a shortage or disruption at any of them can directly delay production and deliveries.
- Dependence on Elon Musk — Tesla's strategy, product direction and public profile are closely tied to Elon Musk, who also runs several other companies; his divided attention or departure would be a material loss for Tesla.
- Unproven new product lines — Robotaxi services, full self-driving software and the Optimus robot are still in early, nascent stages, face significant technical and regulatory hurdles, and compete against well-funded rivals.
強気材料
Buyers argue that Tesla's lead in vertical integration and self-driving software will eventually translate into higher-margin businesses such as robotaxis and robots, and that its Supercharger network and brand keep customers loyal even as EV competition grows.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that Chinese and legacy competitors are closing the EV cost gap faster than the new robotaxi and robot businesses can generate revenue, and that much of the company's valuation rests on projects that remain unproven.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$103.62B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
純利益
$3.80B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
フリーキャッシュフロー
$6.22B
自己資本合計
$82.14B
負債合計
$54.94B
流動比率
1.94
利払い倍率
13.09
負債/EBITDA
1.50
一株当たり利益（EPS）
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$396.62
現在株価
$373.08
安全マージン
+5.9%
適正価値レンジ
$376.79 - $416.45
使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
327.88
ROE
4.6%
P/B レシオ
16.10
P/FCF
242.72
粗利益率
18.9%
ROIC
3.0%
収益性レーダー
価値創造（経済的モート）
ROIC
3.0%
WACC
14.0%
ROIC − WACC
-10.9 pp
ROICが資本コストを下回っています。投資した1ドルごとに企業は価値を破壊しています。
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（13）
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 38.88%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Revenue Growth 5Y 24.6%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 4.91
- Share Dilution 1.1%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
不合格（13）
- ROIC 3.1%
- Gross Margin 18.9%
- P/FCF 242.72
- P/B Ratio 16.10
- Operating Margin 4.2%
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- ROE 4.6%
- Analyst Consensus 49% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg -7.0%
- PEG Ratio 10.29
- Net Margin Trend 3.7% vs 6.3%
データなし（1）
- Dividend Payout NaN%
Piotroski F-スコア
まちまちのシグナル：一部の領域に注意が必要
利益の質
高品質：利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
株式数は安定している
機関投資家の保有
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Elon R. Musk | Co-Founder, Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director | 54 |
| Mr. Vaibhav Taneja | Chief Financial Officer | 47 |
| Mr. Xiaotong Zhu | Senior Vice President of APAC & Global Vehicle Manufacturing | 45 |
| Travis Axelrod | Head of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Brandon Ehrhart | General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | - |
| Mr. Franz von Holzhausen | Chief Designer | - |
| Ms. Roxanne Inskip-Kaye | Head of Operations - Electric Vehicle Business | - |
| Mr. John Walker | Vice President of Sales - North America | 62 |
| Mr. Rodney D. Westmoreland Jr. | Director of Construction Management | - |
| Mr. Lars Moravy | Vice President of Vehicle Engineering | - |
監査リスク
4
取締役会リスク
10
報酬リスク
10
株主権利リスク
9
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
業績推移
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for TSLA, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 40m agoPOSITIVETesla tonica a Wall Street dopo consegne terzo trimestre oltre le attese
Tesla Inc. shares surged on Wall Street following the release of its third-quarter 2026 delivery figures. The electric vehicle manufacturer, based in Austin, Texas, reported production of 464,391 vehicles and approximately 22,000 deliveries that exceeded market expectations. This positive delivery report is a key indicator of demand and operational efficiency, often leading to upward revisions in analyst price targets and increased investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
- 1d agoNEGATIVETesla’s delivery report is just around the corner. Expect a sales drop.
Tesla's upcoming delivery report is anticipated to reveal a sales drop, reflecting waning investor interest in the company's EV business. While the exact figures are yet to be released, the expectation of a decline suggests potential headwinds for the electric vehicle giant. This news could impact investor sentiment and lead to a reassessment of Tesla's valuation, especially if the drop is more significant than currently priced in by the market. Investors will be closely watching for any commentary on future production and demand drivers.
- 3d agoNEUTRALTesla Lines Up $30 Billion to Borrow With Spending on Rise
Tesla Inc. has secured $30 billion in new loans and credit facilities, signaling an increased capital expenditure strategy. The funds are earmarked for significant investments in artificial intelligence and robotics initiatives, suggesting a pivot or expansion beyond its core electric vehicle manufacturing. While securing substantial financing can be seen as a positive step for growth, the increased borrowing and investment focus may also introduce higher financial leverage and execution risk. Investors will be watching closely to see if these AI and robotics ventures can deliver future returns commensurate with the capital deployed.
- 4d agoNEUTRALAzioni Tesla: perché il prossimo report sulle consegne potrebbe contare poco
Tesla is set for a pivotal week with the unveiling of its next-generation Roadster and its Q3 delivery report. Despite the historical significance of delivery numbers, Wall Street's focus has shifted to high-margin technological catalysts, including the Roadster, robotaxi network, and Physical AI initiatives. While the stock dipped 3% on Monday ahead of the delivery report, it has recovered approximately 20% from its year-to-date low. This suggests that while delivery figures are a factor, future growth drivers are currently taking precedence in market sentiment.
- 4d agoNEGATIVEPrevisioni su Tesla: principali catalizzatori per le azioni TSLA questa settimana
Tesla shares have experienced recent downward pressure, trading at $372 after a peak of $384 last week, amid investor concerns about its business operations. Key catalysts this week include the release of Q3 delivery data, which is crucial for assessing the company's performance. Expectations are for a decline in Q3 deliveries compared to the previous quarter. Goldman Sachs notably reduced its delivery target from 490,000 to 435,000 units, signaling potential headwinds. Investors will scrutinize these figures for insights into Tesla's growth trajectory and operational efficiency.
via Markets Gazette