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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX)

適正価値
HealthcareBiotechnologyUnited States

ファンダメンタル

71

株価

$516.83

時価総額

$132.32B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Vertex develops medicines that treat the genetic root cause of cystic fibrosis, a disease that had no such treatment before Vertex's drugs existed, and its CFTR-modulator therapies now reach most eligible patients worldwide. The company has begun diversifying its pipeline beyond cystic fibrosis with a gene-edited cell therapy for sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia, developed jointly with CRISPR Therapeutics, and a new non-opioid medicine for acute pain that targets a completely different market.

収益の仕組み

Nearly all revenue comes from direct sales of chronic-use medicines, mostly distributed through a small number of large US pharmacy wholesalers and specialty pharmacies rather than sold to patients directly. Because cystic fibrosis is a lifelong condition, patients who start on a Vertex therapy typically stay on it, or on its successor, for years, which gives revenue an annuity-like quality once a drug is launched and adopted.

セグメント別売上高

TRIKAFTA / KAFTRIO85.9%

The company's flagship cystic fibrosis therapy, treating the majority of eligible patients worldwide and still the overwhelming majority of revenue.

ALYFTREK7%

A newer, once-daily cystic fibrosis therapy intended to eventually succeed TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO; still in early launch.

Other product revenues6.8%

Includes CASGEVY, a one-time gene-edited cell therapy for sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia, the new pain medicine JOURNAVX, and older cystic fibrosis drugs.

Other revenues0.3%

Royalty and other minor revenue streams outside product sales.

競争優位性(moat)

特許・ライセンス · 広い

Vertex is essentially the only company that treats the genetic cause of cystic fibrosis rather than just its symptoms, a position protected by patents projected to run to 2037 for TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO and 2039 for ALYFTREK. No rival has brought a competing CFTR modulator to market despite years of trying, which makes this one of the more durable moats in pharmaceuticals today.

需要を左右する要因

ディフェンシブ

Cystic fibrosis is a genetic, lifelong condition, so patients need treatment regardless of the economic environment, and demand does not meaningfully rise or fall with consumer spending or business cycles. What can move results instead is drug pricing and reimbursement policy, and the pace at which new therapies like CASGEVY and JOURNAVX are adopted by physicians and payers.

主なリスク

  • Revenue concentrated in the CF franchise — TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO and ALYFTREK together make up roughly nine-tenths of revenue. Any safety, efficacy or competitive setback in cystic fibrosis therapy would affect nearly the whole business at once.
  • Distributor concentration — McKesson and Accredo together handled 34% of gross product revenue in 2025, so a dispute or disruption with either distributor could delay a meaningful share of collections.
  • Slow uptake of new launches — CASGEVY, a complex one-time gene therapy, reached only 64 patients in all of 2025, showing how slowly a genuinely novel treatment can be adopted even when clinically effective.
  • Drug pricing policy — US and international reforms aimed at lowering drug prices could compress net pricing on Vertex's therapies regardless of their clinical value or patent protection.

顧客集中度

主要顧客が売上高の34%を占める

Two distributors, McKesson Corporation and Accredo Health Group, accounted for 22% and 12% of gross product revenue in 2025, respectively. These are pharmacy wholesalers serving many patients, not end customers, but their financial health still matters for collections.

強気材料

Buyers point to a near-monopoly in treating the genetic cause of cystic fibrosis with patent protection running past 2037, a strong balance sheet funding three new launches that diversify beyond cystic fibrosis, and demand for chronic-disease treatment that does not depend on the economic cycle.

弱気材料

Sellers note that roughly nine-tenths of revenue still comes from one franchise, that the newest launches are ramping slowly with CASGEVY reaching only 64 patients all year, and that two distributors handle over a third of gross product sales.

2025会計年度のセグメントデータ情報源: Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated — Form 10-K, esercizio 2025

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$12.59B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$4.41B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$3.19B

自己資本合計

$18.67B

負債合計

$6.98B

流動比率

3.19

利払い倍率

313.78

負債/EBITDA

0.45

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

一般的なケース適正価値

適正価値

$446.16

現在株価

$516.83

安全マージン

-15.8%

適正価値レンジ

$337.94 - $554.37

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$570.32
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):$402.94
利益倍率(P/E):$433.21
グレアムの成長公式:$379.31
収益力価値(EPV):$184.84
正当化されたP/B:$278.06
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):$262.79
中間サイクル利益:$39.17
売上高倍率:$194.33
アナリスト・コンセンサス:強い買い (29B / 6H / 1S)
直近の決算サプライズ:-2.11%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

30.45

ROE

21.2%

P/B レシオ

6.54

P/FCF

34.91

粗利益率

86.0%

ROIC

16.1%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

16.1%

WACC

7.9%

ROIC − WACC

+8.2 pp

ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(20)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 21.50%
  • ROIC 16.1%
  • Gross Margin 86.0%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 38.0%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 23.3%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 14.1%
  • Analyst Consensus 81% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.97
  • Share Dilution 0.2%
  • Net Margin Trend 35.0% vs 31.9%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

不合格(6)

  • P/FCF 34.91
  • P/B Ratio 6.54
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -0.0%
  • PEG Ratio 3.63

データなし(1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-スコア

6/9

まちまちのシグナル:一部の領域に注意が必要

score
criteria

利益の質

0.97

中程度:利益とキャッシュの間にギャップがある

株式希薄化

0.2%

株式数は安定している

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Dr. Jeffrey Marc Leiden M.D., Ph.D.Executive Chairman69
Dr. Reshma Kewalramani FASN, M.D.CEO, President & Director52
Mr. Charles F. Wagner Jr.Executive VP, COO & CFO57
Mr. Amit K. Sachdev J.D.Executive VP & Chief Patient and External Affairs Officer57
Dr. Ourania Tatsis Ph.D.Executive VP & Chief Product Affairs Officer55
Dr. Carmen Bozic M.D.Executive VP of Global Medicines Development & Medical Affairs and Chief Medical Officer62
Dr. Mark Bunnage D.PhilExecutive VP & Chief Scientific Officer56
Ms. Susie Lisa C.F.A.Senior Vice President of Investor Relations-
Ms. Joy Liu J.D.EVP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary47
Ms. Nina DevlinSenior VP & Chief Communications Officer-

監査リスク

5

取締役会リスク

5

報酬リスク

6

株主権利リスク

6

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

書類

  • 年次報告書(10-K)

    事業内容、財務実績、リスクをまとめた年次の概要。

    提出日: 2026-02-13

    書類を見る
  • 四半期報告書(10-Q)

    直近3か月間の業績に関する最新情報。

    提出日: 2026-08-04

    書類を見る
  • 臨時報告書(8-K)

    経営陣の交代や重要な発表など、大きな出来事に関するお知らせ。

    提出日: 2026-09-01

    書類を見る

via SEC EDGAR

業績推移

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for VRTX, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6/12/2026POSITIVE
    Here's How Much $1000 Invested In Vertex Pharmaceuticals 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today

    An investment of $1000 in Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) a decade ago would have yielded a substantial return, growing to approximately $7,240 today. This represents an impressive annualized return of over 22%. The company's consistent performance over the past ten years underscores its strong growth trajectory and effective drug development pipeline. For investors, this historical performance highlights VRTX as a potentially robust long-term holding, demonstrating its capacity to generate significant value through innovation and market success in the biopharmaceutical sector.

  • 6/11/2026POSITIVE
    Vertex Says Pediatric CASGEVY Data Show Consistent Benefits In Rare Blood Disorders

    Vertex Pharmaceuticals announced positive data from its pediatric study of CASGEVY, a gene-editing therapy for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia. The data demonstrate consistent and sustained clinical benefits in young patients, including significant reductions in vaso-occlusive crises and transfusion requirements. This reinforces the therapy's efficacy and safety profile in a crucial demographic. For investors, these findings suggest strong long-term growth potential for CASGEVY and solidify Vertex's leadership in rare blood disorder treatments, potentially leading to increased market share and revenue.

  • 5/25/2026POSITIVE
    If You Invested $100 In Vertex Pharmaceuticals Stock 20 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today

    An investment of $100 in Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) twenty years ago would have grown to approximately $10,500 today, representing a staggering 10,400% return. This performance significantly outpaced the broader market, highlighting the company's exceptional growth trajectory and successful drug development pipeline. Vertex's focus on transformative medicines for serious diseases, particularly cystic fibrosis, has been a key driver of its stock appreciation. Investors who held VRTX through this period have benefited immensely from the company's innovation and market leadership.

  • 3/30/2026POSITIVE
    If You Invested $1000 In Vertex Pharmaceuticals Stock 15 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today

    An investment of $1000 in Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) 15 years ago would have yielded a substantial return, illustrating the company's strong long-term performance. While specific figures are not provided in the title, the implication is significant wealth creation for shareholders. This historical performance suggests robust growth driven by successful drug development, strategic execution, and market demand for its therapies. Investors considering VRTX should note its track record as an indicator of potential future value, though past performance is not indicative of future results.

  • 3/16/2026POSITIVE
    Is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Heading to $600?

    Vertex Pharmaceuticals is nearing a potential new product approval, fueling speculation about its stock price reaching the $600 mark. While specific details of the product and its approval timeline are not disclosed, the anticipation of a new revenue stream and market expansion is a significant catalyst. Investors are closely watching for regulatory updates, as a successful approval could lead to substantial revenue growth and solidify Vertex's position in its therapeutic areas. This development suggests strong underlying fundamentals and a positive future outlook for the company.

  • 3/15/2026POSITIVE
    This Investor Sold $5 Million of a Biotech Stock Up 118% in a Year, but Here's Why It Still Seems Bullish on Shares

    An investor divested $5 million in Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) shares, a company specializing in cystic fibrosis therapies. Despite this sale, the stock's impressive 118% surge over the past year, and a recent nearly 90% year-over-year gain as per the latest filing, suggests continued underlying strength. The sale, representing a small fraction of the company's market cap, may be attributed to portfolio rebalancing or tax-loss harvesting rather than a fundamental bearish view. Investors should focus on VRTX's robust pipeline and consistent growth trajectory, which remain strong indicators for future performance.

  • 3/12/2026POSITIVE
    If You Invested $1000 In Vertex Pharmaceuticals Stock 20 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today

    An investment of $1000 in Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) 20 years ago would have yielded a substantial return, growing to approximately $14,500 today. This hypothetical scenario highlights the significant long-term growth potential of VRTX stock, driven by its consistent performance and innovation in the biotechnology sector. Investors who held VRTX over the past two decades have benefited from the company's advancements in treating serious diseases like cystic fibrosis, underscoring the value of strategic, long-term investments in promising pharmaceutical companies.

  • 2/22/2026NEUTRAL
    Could Vertex Stock Help Turn $100,000 Into $1 Million by 2036?

    A speculative analysis explores the long-term growth potential of Vertex Pharmaceuticals, posing a hypothetical scenario of turning a $100,000 investment into $1 million by 2036. This tenfold return scenario prompts investors to evaluate the company's innovation pipeline, market position, and future earnings prospects. However, the article is not based on concrete news or a specific catalyst but is framed as a forward-looking valuation exercise. The cautionary note that "even a great stock has a ceiling" serves as a reminder of inherent risks and valuation limits. The piece encourages reflection on the long-term investment thesis for Vertex without providing new information likely to impact the stock's price in the short term.

via Markets Gazette