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Western Digital Corporation (WDC)

適正価値
TechnologyComputer HardwareUnited States

ファンダメンタル

65

株価

$413.76

時価総額

$162.36B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Western Digital makes hard disk drives, the spinning-platter storage technology that still holds most of the world's data despite decades of competition from flash memory, because it remains far cheaper per gigabyte for storing huge, infrequently accessed volumes of information. Its main customers are cloud and data-center operators who buy drives by the tens of thousands; a smaller business sells storage to PC makers and consumers. In early 2025 the company completed the separation of its flash memory business, SanDisk, leaving Western Digital a pure hard-drive company.

収益の仕組み

Nearly all revenue now comes from selling physical hard drives, mostly under negotiated bulk contracts with cloud and enterprise customers whose orders track their own data-center capacity expansion plans. A much smaller share comes from client devices (drives built into PCs and other equipment) and consumer retail products (external hard drives). Because most output goes to a handful of very large buyers, pricing and volumes swing with their capacity-spending cycles rather than with steady end-consumer demand.

セグメント別売上高

Cloud87.6%

High-capacity drives sold to cloud and enterprise data-center operators; now by far the dominant end market.

Consumer6.5%

Retail external hard drives and other storage products sold directly to individual consumers.

Client5.8%

Drives sold to PC and other equipment manufacturers for integration into their own products.

競争優位性(moat)

規模の経済 · 狭い

Decades of industry consolidation have left only two significant hard-drive makers, Western Digital and Seagate, so the huge fixed cost of precision drive manufacturing is now a real barrier to new entrants. But the product is still a commodity component that customers can dual-source, and buyers with far more scale than Western Digital can push back hard on price, so the advantage does not extend to pricing power.

需要を左右する要因

景気循環型

The hard-drive industry has a long history of swinging between shortage, when prices and margins are strong, and glut, when they collapse, driven by how much data-center capacity a handful of huge cloud buyers decide to build in any given period. Western Digital posted losses as recently as 2023-2024 during a downturn, showing how quickly favorable pricing can reverse if cloud demand or capacity plans change.

主なリスク

  • Revenue concentrated among hyperscale customers — A small group of very large cloud customers drives the great majority of revenue, so a pullback, renegotiation or dual-sourcing decision by even one of them can move results significantly.
  • Lumpy, sporadic hyperscale demand — Hyperscale customers order in connection with large, sporadic data-center build-outs and can request significant volumes on short lead times, making demand far less steady than consumer-driven sales and putting pressure on Western Digital's ability to plan capacity.
  • Pricing and industry cyclicality — Today's favorable pricing environment is not guaranteed to persist; the industry has a history of sharp swings in revenue and cash flow, including losses in 2023-2024, and a shift in cloud demand or pricing could quickly pressure margins again.
  • Customer bargaining power — Customers can choose among a variety of suppliers, giving them substantial leverage on pricing and contract terms and often shifting risk and cost onto Western Digital as the supplier.

顧客集中度

主要顧客が売上高の71%を占める

Western Digital's ten largest customers account for roughly 71% of revenue, concentrated among a handful of hyperscale cloud operators whose order timing and volumes drive the great majority of results.

強気材料

Buyers argue that AI-driven data growth is fueling unprecedented demand for high-capacity cloud storage, that the industry's consolidation down to two real hard-drive makers gives Western Digital durable pricing power in the current cycle, and that focusing purely on hard drives after the SanDisk separation lets management run a simpler, higher-margin business.

弱気材料

Sellers fear that revenue this concentrated among a handful of hyperscale buyers leaves Western Digital exposed to a single customer's capacity-spending decision, that the industry's long history of boom-and-bust pricing means today's strong margins are unlikely to be permanent, and that hyperscale customers' bargaining power will erode pricing once capacity tightness eases.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$12.92B

直近12か月(2026/7/3まで)

純利益

$9.42B

直近12か月(2026/7/3まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$3.51B

自己資本合計

$8.86B

負債合計

$5.00B

流動比率

1.33

利払い倍率

26.99

負債/EBITDA

0.25

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

一般的なケース適正価値

適正価値

$524.23

現在株価

$413.76

安全マージン

+21.1%

適正価値レンジ

$340.75 - $707.72

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$664.92
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):$198.51
利益倍率(P/E):$534.68
グレアムの成長公式:$1384.81
収益力価値(EPV):$46.77
正当化されたP/B:$225.66
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):$4.27
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):$434.86
中間サイクル利益:$89.64
売上高倍率:$163.43
アナリスト・コンセンサス:強い買い (24B / 7H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+6.97%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

19.05

ROE

106.3%

P/B レシオ

18.81

P/FCF

47.50

粗利益率

48.9%

ROIC

36.6%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

36.6%

WACC

16.9%

ROIC − WACC

+19.6 pp

ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(19)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 10.79%
  • Price CAGR 24.88%
  • ROIC 36.6%
  • Gross Margin 48.9%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 34.5%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 117.8%
  • Analyst Consensus 77% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 10.3%
  • PEG Ratio 0.31
  • Net Margin Trend 72.9% vs 19.8%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

不合格(8)

  • P/FCF 47.50
  • P/B Ratio 18.81
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Revenue Growth 5Y -5.3%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.42
  • Share Dilution 5.2%

データなし(1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-スコア

7/9

財務健全性が高い

score
criteria

利益の質

0.42

低品質:会計処理を調査してください

株式希薄化

5.2%

新株を発行しており、所有権を希薄化している

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Tiang Yew TanCEO & Director55
Mr. Kris A. SennesaelExecutive VP & CFO56
Mr. Vidyadhara K. GubbiExecutive VP & Chief of Global Operations61
Ms. Cynthia Lock TregillisExecutive VP, Chief Legal Officer & Secretary55
Mr. Ahmed M. ShihabExecutive VP & Chief Product Officer53
Mr. C. Wesley M. ScottChief Investment Officer78
Mr. Brad D. FellerSenior VP & Chief Accounting Officer51
Mr. Sesh TirumalaChief Information Officer-
Dr. Ambrish Srivastava Ph.D.Vice President of Investor Relations-
Mr. Brian Scott DavisExecutive VP and Chief Sales & Marketing Officer62

監査リスク

10

取締役会リスク

3

報酬リスク

3

株主権利リスク

5

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

書類

  • 年次報告書(10-K)

    事業内容、財務実績、リスクをまとめた年次の概要。

    提出日: 2026-08-14

    書類を見る
  • 四半期報告書(10-Q)

    直近3か月間の業績に関する最新情報。

    提出日: 2026-05-01

    書類を見る
  • 臨時報告書(8-K)

    経営陣の交代や重要な発表など、大きな出来事に関するお知らせ。

    提出日: 2026-09-14

    書類を見る

via SEC EDGAR

業績推移

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for WDC, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 3h agoNEGATIVE
    Why Western Digital and Seagate are seeing big stock drops today

    Western Digital and Seagate Technology are experiencing significant stock declines due to investor concerns over Toshiba's potential expansion in AI storage product manufacturing. This anticipated increase in supply could erode the current strong pricing power enjoyed by both Western Digital and Seagate. The market is reacting to the prospect of intensified competition and potential margin compression, signaling a bearish outlook for these storage solution providers.

  • 8/27/2026POSITIVE
    SanDisk +5% pre-mercato: l'allerta memoria di Nvidia può estendere il rally?

    Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: WDC) shares surged nearly 5% in pre-market trading following Nvidia's earnings report, which signaled an unexpected positive outlook for memory suppliers. Nvidia's CFO indicated that memory shortages are constraining their ability to meet demand, putting pressure on gross margins. This situation, however, could present an opportunity for WDC as Nvidia anticipates continued demand acceleration. The news suggests that the memory supply constraints, while challenging for Nvidia, may translate into improved pricing power and demand for WDC's products, potentially extending its recent rally.

  • 8/14/2026POSITIVE
    Perché le azioni SanDisk salgono del 6% oggi, oltre +30% nella settimana

    Western Digital Corporation (formerly SanDisk) shares surged approximately 6% on Friday, extending their weekly gains to around 34%. This rally follows the company's Investor Day, where management presented ambitious financial targets and detailed how AI-driven demand is poised to reshape the NAND flash memory market. Analysts are increasingly optimistic, citing Western Digital's growing exposure to AI infrastructure and its strategic shift towards long-term supply agreements. The positive sentiment from Wall Street underscores confidence in the company's long-term strategy, particularly its positioning within the burgeoning AI sector.

  • 7/1/2026NEGATIVE
    Sandisk’s and Micron’s stocks sink as the rotation trade builds, but supply shortages should limit losses

    Western Digital Corporation (WDC) and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) experienced significant stock declines as investors shifted towards a 'rotation trade' strategy. Despite the immediate downturn, analysts suggest that persistent supply shortages in the memory chip market are likely to mitigate the extent of these losses. Bank of America highlighted that a substantial portion of Western Digital's future revenue may stem from new business model contracts, which are expected to offer improved revenue visibility. This suggests a potential underlying strength despite current market sentiment.

  • 6/20/2026POSITIVE
    Sandisk Stock Is Up More Than 5,900% Since It Spun Off From Western Digital. Is It Too Late to Buy?

    Western Digital's strategic decision to spin off its flash storage and memory businesses into SanDisk, which has since seen its stock surge over 5,900%, highlights a successful value-unlocking maneuver. While the spin-off occurred in February 2025, the article prompts investors to consider if further gains are possible. The substantial historical performance of SanDisk post-spin-off suggests that Western Digital's management may have a strong track record of identifying and executing profitable strategic initiatives, potentially benefiting remaining shareholders.

  • 6/15/2026POSITIVE
    Why Western Digital’s stock was the S&P 500’s biggest gainer on Monday

    Western Digital Corporation (WDC) shares surged on Monday, becoming the top performer in the S&P 500 index. This significant gain is attributed to a broader investor enthusiasm for storage companies, driven by their perceived pricing power. The market is increasingly recognizing the potential for enhanced profitability within the storage sector, signaling a positive outlook for companies like Western Digital. This trend suggests that investors are re-evaluating the fundamental value and future earnings capacity of storage technology providers, potentially leading to sustained upward momentum for WDC stock.

  • 6/8/2026POSITIVE
    SanDisk Stock Has 35% More To Run, Analyst Says

    Western Digital Corporation (WDC) shares surged following a significant upgrade from Bank of America, which raised its price target to $2,100. This optimistic outlook is underpinned by newly secured contracts and persistent memory supply constraints, suggesting a favorable market environment for the company's products. The analyst firm's action indicates strong conviction in WDC's future performance, potentially signaling a robust period of growth and profitability for investors.

  • 6/1/2026POSITIVE
    After SanDisk's Historic Run, Analysts Still See More Upside

    Analysts maintain a positive outlook on Western Digital Corporation (WDC), formerly known as SanDisk, citing expectations for continued upside potential. Despite a recent strong performance, the company's strategic positioning in the data storage market, particularly with its NAND flash memory solutions, is seen as a key driver for future growth. Investors are watching for sustained demand in enterprise and consumer electronics, which could further bolster WDC's market share and profitability. The company's innovation pipeline and potential for market share gains are key factors supporting the bullish sentiment.

  • 5/6/2026POSITIVE
    The latest sign of Sandisk’s ascent: It’s now bigger than the company that spun it off

    Western Digital Corporation's stock has shown a significant upward trend following its separation from Sandisk. The spin-off has unlocked value for both entities, with Sandisk now surpassing its former parent company in market capitalization. This ascent is attributed to upbeat industry dynamics, suggesting a favorable market environment for storage solutions. Investors are likely to view this development positively, indicating successful strategic restructuring and potential for continued growth in the data storage sector.

via Markets Gazette