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Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

合理估值
Consumer CyclicalInternet RetailUnited States

基本面

70

价格

$247.21

市值

$2.69T

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Amazon operates two very different businesses under one roof. Its retail arm runs the world's largest online marketplace, selling its own inventory alongside listings from millions of third-party sellers, backed by its own delivery and warehouse network and the Prime subscription. Its other business, Amazon Web Services (AWS), rents out computing power, storage and software tools to other companies over the internet — infrastructure much of the modern internet runs on. AWS is a much smaller share of revenue than retail but generates most of the company's profit.

盈利方式

In retail, Amazon earns revenue from direct product sales, commissions and fees on third-party marketplace sales, advertising placements on its site, and Prime subscription fees, a mix that keeps overall retail margins thin because of the cost of warehouses, delivery and inventory. AWS instead charges customers for computing capacity, storage and software services on a pay-as-you-go basis, with far higher margins because the marginal cost of serving another customer on existing data-center capacity is low. AWS supplies a small fraction of revenue but the majority of operating profit.

分部营收

North America59.47%

Retail and marketplace operations in the US and Canada, Amazon's largest segment by revenue.

International22.58%

Retail and marketplace operations outside North America, spanning Europe, Asia and other regions.

AWS17.95%

Cloud computing, storage and software services sold to businesses and governments worldwide; smaller in revenue but the main source of profit.

护城河

规模效应 · 宽阔

Amazon's retail business benefits from an enormous logistics and fulfillment network built up over two decades that would cost a rival tens of billions of dollars and many years to replicate, while AWS benefits from being the largest cloud provider, letting it spread infrastructure investment and negotiate hardware costs no smaller competitor can match. Both businesses also gain from an installed base — Prime members and enterprise workloads already running on AWS — that is expensive to walk away from.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Retail sales track discretionary consumer spending, so they slow when households pull back, though everyday essentials cushion the swings somewhat. AWS revenue depends on corporate IT budgets and cloud-adoption trends, which are more resilient than consumer spending but not immune to cuts when businesses tighten spending or optimize their cloud usage during a downturn.

主要风险

  • Antitrust and regulatory scrutiny — Amazon faces an active FTC monopolization case, an ongoing stream of antitrust and consumer-protection actions across jurisdictions, and expanding EU digital-market rules that could restrict how it runs its marketplace and cloud business.
  • AWS profit concentration — AWS supplies a large share of total operating profit, so slower growth, pricing pressure, or customers diversifying among multiple cloud vendors would disproportionately hurt Amazon's overall profitability.
  • Labor cost and relations — Wage inflation, unionization pressure at fulfillment centers, and workplace injury claims can raise costs and disrupt operations in the already thin-margin retail business.
  • Broad litigation exposure — Amazon faces regular litigation and investigations across consumer protection, privacy, tax and intellectual-property matters in many jurisdictions simultaneously.

看多理由

Buyers argue that AWS's scale keeps it the leading cloud provider through the AI infrastructure build-out, that the retail logistics network is now too large for most competitors to replicate, and that advertising has become a high-margin third growth engine layered on top of both businesses.

看空理由

Sellers worry that antitrust cases in the US and Europe could force changes to how Amazon runs its marketplace or bundles services, that AWS supplies a disproportionate share of profit so any slowdown there hits earnings hard, and that rising labor costs and unionization pressure squeeze the already thin margins in the retail business.

分部数据来自2025财年信息来源: Amazon.com Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年8月23日 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 37.7Score: 49Market cap: $853.59B

Walmart is Amazon's largest rival for the everyday shopping basket in the United States, fighting for the same households across groceries, general merchandise, online marketplace listings and fast home delivery.

P/E: 28.6Score: 72Market cap: $3.70T

Microsoft Azure is the direct alternative to Amazon Web Services, competing for the same enterprise IT budgets in cloud infrastructure, data platforms and AI computing capacity.

P/E: 17.1Score: 69Market cap: $4.15T

Alphabet competes with Amazon on two fronts at once: Google Cloud against AWS for enterprise workloads, and Google Search and YouTube against Amazon's advertising business for the budgets of brands trying to reach shoppers.

P/E: 8.5Score: 74Market cap: $111.31B

Through Temu, PDD Holdings sells direct from Chinese manufacturers to Western consumers and has reached a share of cross-border e-commerce comparable to Amazon's, taking the same price-sensitive shopper.

P/E: 99.5Score: 76Market cap: $0

Shopify gives merchants their own online store, payments and fulfilment services, drawing away the third-party sellers whose fees and logistics contracts are a large part of Amazon's revenue.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (阿里巴巴集团)BABA

Alibaba is Amazon's mirror image in Asia, running the marketplaces Taobao, Tmall and AliExpress alongside Alibaba Cloud, and so competes for both online shoppers outside the United States and cloud customers.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$775.68B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$135.28B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$7.70B

股东权益合计

$411.06B

负债合计

$406.98B

流动比率

1.03

利息覆盖率

28.13

债务/EBITDA

1.66

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形合理估值

公允价值

$262.10

当前价格

$247.21

安全边际

+5.7%

公允价值区间

$170.37 - $353.84

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$329.54
现金流折现法(DCF):$95.24
市盈率法(P/E):$282.76
格雷厄姆成长公式:$639.90
盈利能力价值(EPV):$53.14
合理市净率(P/B):$104.36
股息折现模型(戈登模型):数据不足,无法计算
P/FFO(运营资金):$212.75
周期中段收益:$43.23
市销率法(P/S):$121.95
分析师共识:强力买入 (69B / 5H / 0S)
最近财报超预期:+6.13%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

20.04

ROE

18.9%

市净率(P/B)

4.87

P/FCF

349.56

毛利率

50.8%

ROIC

8.7%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

8.7%

WACC

11.8%

ROIC − WACC

-3.1 pp

ROIC 低于资本成本:公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(21)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 10.87%
  • Price CAGR 20.86%
  • ROIC 8.7%
  • Gross Margin 50.8%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 12.1%
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 30.5%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 13.2%
  • Analyst Consensus 93% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 5.1%
  • PEG Ratio 0.70
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.19
  • Share Dilution 1.1%
  • Net Margin Trend 17.4% vs 10.5%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

未通过(5)

  • P/FCF 349.56
  • P/B Ratio 4.87
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)

不可用(2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • CapEx intensity

Piotroski F-评分

6/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.19

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

1.1%

股份数量稳定

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Jeffrey P. BezosFounder & Executive Chairman61
Mr. Andrew R. JassyPresident, CEO & Director57
Mr. Brian T. OlsavskySenior VP & CFO61
Mr. David A. Zapolsky J.D.Senior VP and Chief Global Affairs & Legal Officer61
Mr. Douglas J. HerringtonChief Executive Officer of Worldwide Amazon Stores58
Mr. Matthew S. GarmanChief Executive Officer of Amazon Web Series48
Ms. Shelley L. ReynoldsVP, Worldwide Controller & Principal Accounting Officer60
Dr. Werner VogelsChief Technology Officer-
Mr. Dave FildesVice President of Investor Relations-
Drew HerdenerSenior Vice President of Communications & Corporate Responsibility-

审计风险

2

董事会风险

8

薪酬风险

10

股东权利风险

3

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-02-06

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-07-31

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-09-14

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for AMZN, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 2h agoPOSITIVE
    Why Amazon got a call-up to the Goldman Sachs conviction list of top stocks

    Goldman Sachs has added Amazon.com, Inc. to its prestigious "conviction list" of top stock picks, signaling strong confidence in the e-commerce and cloud giant's future performance. This inclusion suggests that the investment bank's analysts foresee significant upside potential and believe AMZN is poised for outperformance relative to its peers. Investors often view conviction list additions as a strong buy signal, potentially driving increased demand and upward price pressure on the stock. The move also implies positive sentiment regarding Amazon's strategic initiatives and market position.

  • 1d agoPOSITIVE
    How Amazon’s stock can fight off the AI threat and soar 46%

    Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett maintains a 'buy' rating on Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), projecting a 46% upside potential for the stock. Despite investor concerns about AI agents potentially disrupting Amazon's business model, Crockett believes the e-commerce giant is well-positioned to overcome these challenges. The analyst's positive outlook suggests that Amazon's core operations and strategic adaptations will allow it to thrive amidst the evolving technological landscape, offering a compelling investment opportunity for shareholders.

  • 10d agoNEUTRAL
    Amazon and Shopify make starkly different moves in the brewing battle over AI shopping

    Amazon is reportedly shutting out Meta's AI shopping assistant, Muse, from its platform. This move contrasts sharply with Shopify's strategy, which is actively partnering with AI assistants for payment technology integration. While Amazon's decision could be interpreted as a defensive play to maintain control over its e-commerce ecosystem and customer data, Shopify's collaboration signals an openness to leveraging AI for enhanced customer experience and transaction efficiency. The divergent approaches highlight differing philosophies in navigating the evolving AI landscape within e-commerce, with potential implications for their respective market positions and investor sentiment.

  • 10d agoPOSITIVE
    UBS: Amazon può guadagnare il 25%, Palantir altro top pick AI

    UBS analysts highlight that the artificial intelligence spending cycle is in its early stages, identifying significant opportunities within the Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) sectors. They have pinpointed 14 'highest-conviction calls,' including Amazon, poised to benefit from ongoing investments in AI infrastructure, cloud services, chips, networking equipment, and enterprise software. The next growth phase for AI is expected to be driven by enterprise adoption, with many companies still in the early stages of implementing agent-based AI. This outlook suggests continued strong demand for AI-related technologies and services, potentially driving revenue and market share gains for leading companies.

  • 13d agoPOSITIVE
    Amazon, Palantir and 12 more top tech stock picks from UBS analysts

    UBS analysts have identified Amazon as a top tech stock pick, citing the early stages of the AI data-center buildout as a key growth driver. The investment bank suggests that investors can capitalize on this trend by investing across the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors. This positive outlook from UBS indicates strong conviction in Amazon's potential to benefit from the ongoing AI infrastructure expansion, potentially leading to increased investor interest and upward price pressure on the stock.

  • 14d agoPOSITIVE
    Amazon’s secret weapon against Walmart could be a massive blitz in same-day delivery

    BofA analysts highlight Amazon's strategic expansion of same-day fulfillment centers as a potent weapon against competitors like Walmart, aiming to make essential goods instantly available. This initiative is expected to significantly enhance customer convenience and loyalty by reducing delivery times for everyday items. For investors, this move signals Amazon's commitment to strengthening its core e-commerce operations and capturing a larger share of the essential goods market, potentially driving increased sales volume and market dominance.

  • 18d agoNEGATIVE
    Amazon workers on food stamps have tripled despite its record revenue—and it’s just the latest evidence of the new economy of shrinking labor shares

    A report indicates that the number of Amazon workers relying on food stamps has tripled, despite the company's record revenues. This trend highlights a growing disparity where employees struggle financially even while the company achieves significant financial success. The situation raises concerns about labor share economics and the effectiveness of wages in supporting a basic standard of living for a substantial portion of the workforce. Investors may view this negatively, as it could signal potential labor unrest or reputational damage, impacting long-term operational stability and brand perception.

  • 21d agoNEGATIVE
    Shock fiscale alla scommessa da $40 mld di Amazon in Ohio: impatto sul titolo

    Amazon's significant $40 billion data center expansion in Ohio faces potential headwinds as state legislators reconsider tax incentives. While the immediate financial impact on Amazon's balance sheet is minimal, the broader concern is the economic viability of AI expansion if states increase tax burdens on Big Tech. Amazon plans substantial capital expenditures of approximately $220 billion by 2026 for AWS capacity growth. This situation in Ohio serves as a crucial test case for the industry, potentially impacting investor sentiment regarding future growth and profitability.

  • 23d agoPOSITIVE
    Amazon and AT&T team up to challenge SpaceX’s satellite dominance

    Amazon's satellite unit, Project Kuiper, has secured a significant partnership with AT&T, making the telecom giant the first wireless provider to utilize its technology. This collaboration aims to bolster AT&T's 5G network by integrating satellite connectivity, potentially expanding coverage to underserved areas. For Amazon, this deal represents a crucial step in challenging SpaceX's Starlink dominance in the satellite internet market, validating its Kuiper initiative and opening new revenue streams beyond traditional cloud services. Investors may view this as a positive development for Amazon's diversification strategy and its competitive positioning in the burgeoning satellite communications sector.

via Markets Gazette