Crocs, Inc. (CROX)
合理估值基本面
70
价格
$120.09
市值
$5.62B
第一部分 · 这家公司值多少
概览
Crocs, Inc. designs and sells casual lifestyle footwear and accessories under two brands: the Crocs Brand, built around the molded clog made from the company's proprietary Croslite material, and HEYDUDE, a canvas loafer and sneaker brand acquired in 2022. The company owns no factories: production is placed with third-party manufacturers, concentrated in Vietnam, which made roughly 45% of Crocs Brand and roughly 44% of HEYDUDE units in 2025, with the single largest Crocs manufacturer accounting for about 45% of that brand's output. Product reaches buyers through wholesale partners — multi-brand retailers, e-tailers and distributors — and directly through company e-commerce sites, third-party marketplaces and a store base that at year-end 2025 included 98 Crocs full-price stores, 269 Crocs and 75 HEYDUDE outlets and 72 Crocs kiosks and store-in-store locations. Consolidated revenues were $4.04 billion in fiscal 2025, down 1.5% from 2024.
盈利方式
Revenue comes from selling footwear and accessories, one pair at a time, with no subscription or recurring component. In fiscal 2025 wholesale accounted for 47.9% of revenues and direct-to-consumer for 52.1%: the direct channel carries a higher gross margin because the company keeps the retailer's markup, while wholesale moves volume with lower margin and adds credit exposure to retail partners. Because the company designs and markets but does not manufacture, profitability rests on the gap between third-party production cost — plus freight and, increasingly, tariffs — and retail price, and on how much of the assortment sells at full price rather than at markdown. In 2025 direct-to-consumer revenue grew 3.3% to $2.1 billion while wholesale fell 6.2% to $1.9 billion.
分部营收
Clogs, sandals and other molded footwear plus Jibbitz charms, sold worldwide to consumers through Crocs.com, marketplaces and Crocs stores, and to wholesale retailers and distributors. Revenues were $3.33 billion in fiscal 2025, up 1.5%, with international growth of 11.9% offsetting a 6.8% decline in North America.
Lightweight canvas loafers and sneakers, largely a United States business, sold through wholesale accounts and through HEYDUDE e-commerce and outlet stores. Revenues fell 13.3% to $715 million in fiscal 2025, with wholesale down 26.3%, and the brand carried $737 million of non-cash impairment charges on its trademark and goodwill during the year.
护城河
品牌 · 狭窄The Crocs Brand has a recognisable silhouette, a proprietary material (Croslite) and a personalisation ecosystem in Jibbitz charms, and it earns an adjusted operating margin of 22.3% — evidence that consumers pay for the name rather than for the cheapest moulded shoe. But the advantage is narrow and brand-specific: footwear has no switching costs, the company's own filing names intense competition and counterfeiting as risks, and HEYDUDE shows how fast the same playbook can stop working, with revenue down 13.3% in 2025 and $737 million of the purchase price written off. What protects Crocs is fashion relevance, which has to be re-earned each season, not a structural lock-in.
需求驱动因素
周期性Footwear is a discretionary purchase and the company itself flags that changes in global economic conditions may affect consumer spending. Demand also carries a seasonal shape — clogs and sandals sell into spring and summer — and a fashion component on top of the economic cycle: when a silhouette is in favour, volumes and full-price sell-through rise together; when it is not, the same product moves at markdown. The 2025 numbers show both sides at once, with international Crocs Brand revenue up 11.9% while North America fell 6.8% and HEYDUDE wholesale dropped 26.3% against what management described as a weak United States consumer.
主要风险
- Dependence on brand value — The company states that its success depends on preserving the strength of its brands; if consumer perception of Crocs or HEYDUDE deteriorates — through loss of fashion relevance, quality problems or reputational damage — results would be adversely affected.
- Intense competition in footwear — The filing identifies significant competition in the footwear industry, including from companies with greater resources, and the risk that the company fails to introduce new products successfully or to sustain technical innovation in its materials and silhouettes.
- Third-party manufacturing and supply chain concentration — All production is outsourced. Vietnam supplied roughly 45% of Crocs Brand and roughly 44% of HEYDUDE units in 2025, the largest single Crocs manufacturer about 45% of that brand's output. The company lists supply chain disruption and reliance on third-party manufacturers among its risk factors.
- Tariffs and trade measures — The risk factors name export restrictions, tariffs and other trade protection measures as a threat to operations. The company describes a disproportionate impact of tariffs on HEYDUDE Brand products, which contributed to the downward revision of that brand's forecasts during 2025.
- Impairment of goodwill and intangible assets — The company discloses the risk that goodwill and indefinite-lived intangibles become impaired. This materialised in 2025: $430 million was written off the HEYDUDE trademark and $307 million off HEYDUDE goodwill, cutting reported operating income to $150 million from $1,022 million.
- HEYDUDE brand stabilisation — The filing carries risk factors specific to HEYDUDE's growth and integration. Management points to the extended time it expects to need to stabilise the brand, alongside a weak United States consumer, as the reason for lowering its forecasts.
- Consumer spending and macroeconomic conditions — The company states that changes in global economic conditions may adversely affect consumer spending on its products — discretionary purchases that buyers can postpone.
- Intellectual property and counterfeiting — Inadequate protection of trademarks and other intellectual property, and the circulation of counterfeit product, are disclosed risks — material for a company whose main asset is a recognisable shape.
- Fixed costs of the retail store base — The company discloses risk arising from the fixed costs of its retail stores: leases and staffing do not fall when traffic does, so a downturn in the direct channel compresses margin quickly.
- Debt obligations and financial restrictions — Indebtedness taken on in part for the HEYDUDE acquisition, and the restrictions in the related agreements, are listed among the risk factors. The company reduced debt by $128 million in 2025.
客户集中度
The filing does not identify any single customer accounting for 10% or more of revenues, and does not quantify the weight of its largest wholesale accounts. What it does disclose is that 47.9% of 2025 revenues went through wholesale partners — retailers, e-tailers and distributors — so the business depends on the shelf space and order books of a set of intermediaries even though no one of them is named as material. Supplier concentration, by contrast, is explicit and high: one manufacturer makes about 45% of Crocs Brand output.
看多理由
Buyers argue that the Crocs Brand is the real business and that it is still working: $3.33 billion of revenue in 2025, up 1.5%, with international up 11.9% — a sign that the clog is becoming a global franchise rather than a North American fad. They point to an adjusted operating margin of 22.3%, unusual for footwear, produced without owning a single factory, and to cash generation that funded $577 million of share repurchases and $128 million of debt reduction in one year. On this reading the $737 million HEYDUDE write-off is an accounting correction to a 2022 acquisition price, not a cash cost, and management's $100 million cost-savings programme plus 2026 guidance of $12.88–$13.35 adjusted EPS shows earnings holding while HEYDUDE is worked through.
看空理由
Sellers fear that the company is a one-product business whose product is a fashion cycle. Consolidated revenue fell 1.5% in 2025 and North American Crocs Brand revenue fell 6.8% in the home market where the trend started; HEYDUDE, bought to diversify away from exactly that risk, lost 13.3% of revenue and 26.3% of its wholesale business, and the $737 million impairment is management conceding that the second brand is worth far less than paid. They note the concentration of production — Vietnam at roughly 45% of Crocs units, one manufacturer at about 45% of that brand's output — against tariffs the company says hit HEYDUDE disproportionately, and a 2026 outlook of revenue down about 1% to flat with HEYDUDE guided down another 7–9%. On this reading the international growth is the last leg of a trend whose first market has already turned, and there is no structural switching cost to slow it if it does.
Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Through UGG and Teva, Deckers sells the same slip-on comfort clogs, slippers and sandals in the same US and international wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels where Crocs generates most of its revenue.
Nike's slides, recovery sandals and foam clogs compete for the same warm-weather and off-duty casual footwear spending, with far greater marketing reach and shelf space in the retailers Crocs sells through.
Skechers sells comfort-led casual and slip-on footwear at accessible price points through the same family and value wholesale channels Crocs and HEYDUDE depend on, and is now privately held by 3G Capital after being delisted from the NYSE in September 2025.
Birkenstock competes head-on for the moulded-footbed comfort shoe — clogs and sandals worn as everyday casual footwear — targeting the same buyer as the Crocs Classic Clog but from a more premium, heritage positioning.
Steve Madden fights for the same mid-price casual and sandal purchase, in the same US department store, family footwear and online accounts, and is the closest comparison for the HEYDUDE brand's fashion-casual shoes.
资产负债表与流动性
营收
$4.05B
最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)
净利润
$593M
最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)
自由现金流
$659M
股东权益合计
$1.29B
负债合计
$2.88B
流动比率
1.49
利息覆盖率
10.08
债务/EBITDA
7.38
每股收益
营收与净利润
自由现金流
收入构成
历史财务表
利润率变化
债务变化
债务负担有多重
增长一览表
增长 — 营业收入
公允价值估算
公允价值
$147.50
当前价格
$120.09
安全边际
+18.6%
公允价值区间
$95.88 - $199.13
所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。
估算方法
估值指标
市盈率(P/E)
10.35
ROE
-6.3%
市净率(P/B)
4.06
P/FCF
7.98
毛利率
57.5%
ROIC
18.3%
盈利能力雷达图
价值创造(经济护城河)
ROIC
18.3%
WACC
11.1%
ROIC − WACC
+7.2 pp
ROIC 超过资本成本:公司正在为股东创造价值。
基本面分析标准
通过(19)
- Price CAGR 33.64%
- ROIC 18.3%
- Gross Margin 57.5%
- P/FCF 7.98
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 20.7%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 43.4%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 23.9%
- Analyst Consensus 57% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 12.0%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.29
- Share Dilution -9.5%
- Net Margin Trend 14.6% vs 5.7%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
未通过(6)
- EPS shows upward trend
- P/B Ratio 4.06
- Debt/EBITDA
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
不可用(2)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-评分
信号混杂:部分领域需关注
盈利质量
高质量:盈利有现金流支撑
股权稀释
正在回购股份,对股东友好
机构持股
公司治理
管理团队
| 姓名 | 职位 | 年龄 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Andrew Rees | CEO & Director | 58 |
| Mr. Patraic Reagan | Executive VP & CFO | 53 |
| Mr. Terence Reilly | Executive VP & Chief Brand Officer | 57 |
| Ms. Anne Mehlman | Executive VP & Brand President for Crocs | 44 |
| Mr. Rupert Campbell | Executive VP & President of the Heydude Brand | - |
| Mr. Thomas Britt | Executive VP & Chief Information Officer | 61 |
| Ms. Abigail Kathleen Ritter | Senior Manager of Investor Relations & Strategic Finance | - |
| Ms. Sara Hoverstock | Executive VP & Chief Legal Officer | - |
| Ms. Shannon Sisler | Executive VP & Chief People Officer | 50 |
| Mr. Erik Olson | Senior Vice President of Global Sourcing & Product Execution | - |
审计风险
4
董事会风险
2
薪酬风险
2
股东权利风险
7
第二部分 · 价格与买入时机
这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。
损益历史
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for CROX, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 4/7/2026POSITIVECrocs Stock Is Surging — Is The Valuation Too Cheap To Ignore?
Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ:CROX) experienced a significant surge in its stock price on Tuesday, driven by investor sentiment favoring companies with inexpensive valuations relative to their growth potential. This rotation back into value-oriented growth stocks suggests a renewed confidence in Crocs's business model and future prospects. Analysts are closely watching the company's ability to sustain this momentum, as the current valuation may present an attractive entry point for investors seeking growth at a reasonable price.
- 3/2/2026NEGATIVECrocs Executive Vice Presidents Sells 12,000 Shares for $12 Million
A recent transaction by an Executive Vice President of Crocs Inc. has raised concerns among investors. The senior executive offloaded a substantial 12,000 shares of the company, totaling an impressive $12 million. This move, implying an implicit valuation of $1,000 per share, prompts questions about internal confidence in the stock's future performance. Significant insider sales are often interpreted by the market as a negative signal, suggesting that those closest to the company's operations may perceive an overvaluation or less optimistic prospects. Investors should closely monitor market reaction and future corporate communications to better understand the motivations behind this notable divestment.
- 3/2/2026NEGATIVECrocs Executive Vice Presidents Sells 12k Shares for $12M
A recent transaction involving a Crocs Executive Vice President selling 12,000 shares for $12 million has raised eyebrows among investors. Such insider selling is often interpreted as a cautionary signal from management, potentially indicating an internal perception of peak valuation or less optimistic future prospects. While Crocs enjoys significant popularity among younger consumers, insider sales can erode market confidence, leading to downward pressure on the stock. Investors should closely monitor upcoming developments and financial disclosures to assess whether this sale is an isolated event or indicative of a broader trend.
- 2/27/2026POSITIVECrocs Stock Draws New $54 Million Bet Despite 12% Drop This Past Year
Despite a 12% drop over the past year, Crocs stock has attracted a significant new $54 million bet. This investment, from an unspecified market player, suggests strong confidence in the company's recovery potential and future growth. Crocs, which designs and markets casual footwear and accessories, appears to be viewed by some investors as undervalued, with the recent decline seen as a buying opportunity based on improved operational prospects. For investors, this substantial show of interest could act as a catalyst, signaling a potential turning point for the stock and indicating that smart money sees value where others might see risk.
via Markets Gazette