Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)
合理估值基本面
68
价格
$114.02
市值
$21.30B
第一部分 · 这家公司值多少
概览
Dollar Tree runs roughly 9,000 discount variety stores in the United States and Canada where most items are sold at a fixed low price point, offering a mix of household goods, food, seasonal items and party supplies aimed at value-conscious, budget-focused shoppers looking for everyday essentials at the lowest possible price. In 2025 the company sold its separate Family Dollar chain, leaving standalone Dollar Tree stores as its entire operating business going forward.
盈利方式
Revenue is simple retail: stores sell merchandise bought in bulk from suppliers, marked up to the store's price points, with growth coming from opening new stores, selling more per existing store and, in recent years, from adding price points above the original one-dollar level. Roughly 40% of what it sells is imported, with China as the largest single source, so the cost side depends heavily on global shipping and tariff conditions.
护城河
成本优势 · 狭窄Buying in bulk across roughly 9,000 stores lets Dollar Tree negotiate lower per-unit costs from suppliers than a small independent retailer could, and its distribution network is built to keep costs low enough to sustain fixed, deeply discounted price points. That advantage is narrow because Walmart, other dollar-store chains and online marketplaces compete on price in the same low-cost segment.
需求驱动因素
防御型Dollar Tree sells low-priced everyday and household items that shoppers keep buying even when budgets tighten, and value-seeking behaviour in a downturn can bring in shoppers trading down from pricier retailers. Demand is not fully immune to the economy, since discretionary categories like seasonal and party goods can soften, but the core business holds up better than most discretionary retail.
主要风险
- Tariffs on imported merchandise — About 40% of goods sold are imported, mostly from China, and new or higher tariffs directly raise the cost of merchandise on fixed or narrow price points that are hard to raise quickly.
- Intense price competition — Walmart, other discount and dollar-store chains, and online marketplaces all compete directly on low prices, limiting how much Dollar Tree can raise prices to offset rising costs.
- Standalone execution after the Family Dollar sale — Having divested Family Dollar in 2025, the company now depends entirely on the Dollar Tree banner's performance, removing the diversification a second chain previously provided.
看多理由
Buyers argue that value-seeking shoppers keep returning to fixed low price points regardless of the economic cycle, that bulk purchasing scale across thousands of stores keeps costs down relative to smaller competitors, and that shedding Family Dollar lets management focus fully on the more productive Dollar Tree banner.
看空理由
Sellers fear that tariffs on the roughly 40% of merchandise sourced abroad squeeze margins the company cannot easily pass on to price-sensitive shoppers, that competition from Walmart and other discounters caps pricing power, and that the business now depends entirely on a single banner with no other chain to offset a weak stretch.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
The closest same-format rival, with roughly 20,000 small-box discount stores selling consumables and household basics to the same value-seeking shopper, often within a few miles of a Dollar Tree.
Competes for the same low-price discretionary basket — seasonal goods, toys, party and home items — and with its Five Beyond range it moves into the higher price points Dollar Tree is adding with its multi-price format.
The price benchmark of American discount retail: its supercenters and Neighborhood Markets sit close to most Dollar Tree stores and capture the same trip for household staples and low-cost general merchandise.
The largest U.S. closeout retailer, it draws the same bargain-hunting customer with opportunistic overstock buys and is expanding aggressively into the small-town markets Dollar Tree serves.
Its own-brand value lines and seasonal, party and home aisles compete for the same discretionary spending, particularly with the suburban shoppers Dollar Tree reaches through its multi-price stores.
Sold by Dollar Tree in July 2025 to Brigade Capital and Macellum Capital, it is now an independent chain of roughly 8,000 discount stores chasing the same low-income neighborhood customer.
资产负债表与流动性
营收
$20.05B
最近12个月(截至2026/8/1)
净利润
$1.61B
最近12个月(截至2026/8/1)
自由现金流
$1.06B
股东权益合计
$3.75B
负债合计
$9.71B
流动比率
1.13
利息覆盖率
-
债务/EBITDA
3.33
每股收益
营收与净利润
自由现金流
收入构成
历史财务表
利润率变化
债务变化
债务负担有多重
增长一览表
增长 — 营业收入
公允价值估算
公允价值
$133.88
当前价格
$114.02
安全边际
+14.8%
公允价值区间
$110.10 - $157.67
所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。
估算方法
估值指标
市盈率(P/E)
13.97
ROE
34.2%
市净率(P/B)
6.25
P/FCF
10.82
毛利率
38.7%
ROIC
16.2%
盈利能力雷达图
价值创造(经济护城河)
ROIC
16.2%
WACC
6.1%
ROIC − WACC
+10.1 pp
ROIC 超过资本成本:公司正在为股东创造价值。
基本面分析标准
通过(18)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 7.97%
- ROIC 16.2%
- Gross Margin 38.7%
- P/FCF 10.82
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 11.0%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 45.6%
- Earnings Surprise avg 37.6%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.93
- Share Dilution -4.5%
- Net Margin Trend 8.0% vs -15.8%
- Piotroski F-Score 9/9
未通过(8)
- Price CAGR 3.90%
- P/B Ratio 6.25
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Revenue Growth 5Y -5.3%
- Analyst Consensus 43% Buy
- PEG Ratio 7.01
不可用(2)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
Piotroski F-评分
财务状况强健
盈利质量
高质量:盈利有现金流支撑
股权稀释
正在回购股份,对股东友好
机构持股
公司治理
管理团队
| 姓名 | 职位 | 年龄 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Michael C. Creedon Jr. | CEO & Director | 49 |
| Mr. Stewart F. Glendinning J.D. | Chief Financial Officer | 60 |
| Mr. Robert Aflatooni | Chief Information Officer | 54 |
| Mr. Steve Schumacher | Chief People Officer | 53 |
| Mr. Aditya Maheshwari | Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 50 |
| Mr. Daniel Delrosario | Senior VP of Investor Relations & Treasurer | - |
| Mr. John S. Mitchell Jr., J.D. | Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 55 |
| Mr. Thoufiq Kutty J.D. | SVP and Chief Ethics & Compliance Officer | - |
| Mr. Pedro Voyer | Chief Development Officer | - |
| Ms. Jennifer L. Silberman | Chief Sustainability & Corporate Affairs Officer | - |
审计风险
5
董事会风险
3
薪酬风险
7
股东权利风险
2
第二部分 · 价格与买入时机
这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。
损益历史
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for DLTR, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 5/28/2026POSITIVEDollar Tree’s sales top forecasts as fewer people are shopping but they’re spending more
Dollar Tree Inc. reported first-quarter sales that surpassed analyst expectations, driven by a trend of consumers spending more per visit despite a lower frequency of shopping. The discount retailer also raised its full-year profit outlook, signaling strong operational performance and strategic execution. This positive financial momentum has led to a significant surge in its stock price, positioning it for its best trading day in four years. Investors are likely to view these results as a testament to the company's resilience and ability to adapt to changing consumer spending habits, potentially leading to increased confidence and upward price target revisions.
- 4/7/2026NEGATIVEWhy Are Dollar Tree Shares Trading Down On Tuesday?
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) shares experienced a decline on Tuesday, influenced by a broader market downturn. This sell-off was primarily attributed to a significant drop in durable goods orders, signaling potential weakness in manufacturing and consumer spending. Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions, marked by strikes on Iran and a subsequent rise in oil prices, added to market uncertainty and investor caution. The combination of economic headwinds and rising commodity costs creates a challenging environment for retail companies like Dollar Tree, impacting consumer discretionary spending.
- 3/17/2026POSITIVEDollar Tree Q4 Beats Expectations, Analysts Split On Stock Outlook
Dollar Tree Inc. announced its fourth-quarter financial results, surpassing analyst expectations with improved gross margins and earnings per share. The company's performance indicates a strong operational quarter, potentially driven by effective cost management and increased consumer demand for its value-oriented offerings. Despite the positive financial outcome, analyst sentiment remains divided, with varying ratings suggesting uncertainty about the stock's future trajectory. Investors will closely monitor management's guidance for the upcoming fiscal year to gauge sustained growth potential.
- 3/16/2026NEUTRALDollar Tree Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Dollar Tree released its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call transcript on March 16, 2026. While the transcript provides detailed insights into the company's performance and outlook, the news itself is informational. Investors will need to analyze the transcript for specific financial figures, management commentary on sales trends, cost management, and future guidance to determine any potential impact on the stock. Without specific figures or forward-looking statements highlighted in the summary, the direct market impact remains neutral.
- 3/16/2026POSITIVEHigher prices help Dollar Tree grow sales faster than its top rival
Dollar Tree Inc. reported strong sales growth, outpacing its main competitor due to favorable pricing strategies. This performance comes despite a recent three-day losing streak for the stock, which saw an 8% decline. The company's ability to leverage higher prices to boost sales volume suggests resilience and effective inventory management. For investors, this indicates potential for a rebound and sustained market share gains, especially if broader economic conditions remain challenging for consumers.
- 2/27/2026NEUTRALDollar Tree opens stores in surprising locations
Dollar Tree Inc. is undergoing a significant transformation, moving away from its long-standing $1 price point per item. This strategic shift, coupled with the opening of stores in unexpected locations, indicates an adaptation to evolving market dynamics and inflationary pressures. For investors, this transition represents an effort to improve margins and brand relevance, but also raises questions about consumer value perception and the impact on customer loyalty, which was strongly tied to the unique price point. Success will hinge on the execution of this new strategy and the ability to maintain brand appeal.
via Markets Gazette