Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)
被高估基本面
72
价格
$188.96
市值
$462.81B
第一部分 · 这家公司值多少
概览
Palantir builds software platforms that let large organizations — government agencies and big companies — pull together scattered, siloed data (satellite feeds, sensor data, supply chains, internal records) into one system where analysts, and increasingly AI models, can act on it. It began as a data-integration tool for intelligence and defense agencies and has since built a second business selling the same underlying platform, rebranded as an AI operating system, to commercial customers such as manufacturers, banks and healthcare providers.
盈利方式
Palantir sells multi-year software contracts, priced per deployment rather than as a simple per-seat subscription, so contract size and length vary widely by customer. Government contracts, still the larger half of revenue, often start small and expand as an agency proves out the platform, but can include termination-for-convenience clauses that let the customer walk away with notice. The commercial business is growing faster and is priced more like conventional enterprise software, spreading revenue across a wider base of customers.
分部营收
Software sold to defense, intelligence and other public-sector agencies in the US and allied countries.
The same data-integration and AI platform sold to private companies across manufacturing, finance, healthcare and other industries.
护城河
转换成本 · 狭窄Once an organization has built its workflows, dashboards and data pipelines on top of Palantir's platform, ripping it out and rebuilding on a competitor's system is a costly, multi-year undertaking, which helps retain customers once won. But the same consultative, hands-on process that creates this lock-in also makes winning a new customer slow, and large cloud and software vendors are building comparable AI-data tools that could erode the advantage over time.
需求驱动因素
中度周期性Government revenue depends on agency budgets and procurement cycles rather than the broader economy, so it can hold up in a recession but is exposed to political shifts in defense and federal spending priorities. Commercial revenue is more sensitive to the ordinary business cycle, since enterprise software budgets are among the first things companies trim when conditions worsen.
主要风险
- Government budget dependence — Over half of revenue relies on government spending that can shift with political priorities, and many government contracts include termination-for-convenience clauses the customer can invoke on notice.
- Uncertain sustained profitability — The company itself warns that operating expenses will keep increasing and that it may not be able to maintain profitability as it continues to invest in growth.
- Stock-based compensation dilution — Palantir relies heavily on equity compensation, which dilutes existing shareholders and could pressure the stock if not matched by continued revenue growth.
- Well-resourced competition — Palantir competes against larger enterprise software vendors, government contractors and customers' own internal development efforts, many with greater name recognition and financial resources.
客户集中度
主要客户占营收的16%
In FY2025 the three largest customers together made up 16% of revenue, down from 17% a year earlier, and have been Palantir customers for about ten years on average — a concentration typical of large enterprise and government software deals, but material if even one relationship ends.
看多理由
Buyers argue that once an agency or company builds its operations on Palantir's platform the switching cost locks in years of recurring revenue, that the commercial business now grows faster than the government side and diversifies the customer base, and that being an early, credible AI-integration platform for messy real-world data gives it a head start as demand for applied AI grows.
看空理由
Sellers worry that more than half of revenue still depends on government budgets that can shift with political priorities and carry contracts customers can cancel on notice, that heavy stock-based compensation dilutes shareholders even as the company turns profitable, and that far larger cloud and software vendors are building competing AI-data platforms that could erode Palantir's edge over time.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Booz Allen designs and deploys data-analytics and AI systems for U.S. defense and intelligence agencies, competing for the same federal contracts that drive Palantir's government segment.
Snowflake's data cloud and its Cortex AI layer address the same commercial customers who would otherwise standardize on Foundry to centralize and analyze their operational data.
Leidos builds data-integration and analytics systems for U.S. defense and intelligence customers, bidding against Palantir's Gotham on mission-software and command-and-control programs.
CACI develops intelligence, cyber and battlefield-awareness software for the same U.S. government agencies that buy Palantir's Gotham platform.
Databricks sells the same kind of enterprise data-and-AI platform that Palantir's Foundry and AIP sell, and the two bid for the same large corporate budgets for unifying company data and building AI applications on top of it.
Anduril's Lattice command-and-control software overlaps directly with Gotham in defense programs, and the two compete for the same U.S. and allied military AI awards.
资产负债表与流动性
营收
$6.16B
最近12个月（截至2026/6/30）
净利润
$3.02B
最近12个月（截至2026/6/30）
自由现金流
$2.10B
股东权益合计
$7.39B
负债合计
$1.41B
流动比率
7.23
利息覆盖率
-
债务/EBITDA
0.15
每股收益
营收与净利润
自由现金流
收入构成
历史财务表
利润率变化
债务变化
债务负担有多重
增长一览表
增长 — 营业收入
公允价值估算
公允价值
$103.53
当前价格
$188.96
安全边际
-82.5%
公允价值区间
$67.30 - $139.77
所用估值方法之间的离散区间，并非经过统计校准的置信区间。
估算方法
估值指标
市盈率（P/E）
159.87
ROE
22.0%
市净率（P/B）
45.98
P/FCF
133.84
毛利率
84.8%
ROIC
20.5%
盈利能力雷达图
价值创造（经济护城河）
ROIC
20.5%
WACC
13.6%
ROIC − WACC
+6.9 pp
ROIC 超过资本成本：公司正在为股东创造价值。
基本面分析标准
通过（19）
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 41.85%
- ROIC 20.5%
- Gross Margin 84.8%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 42.8%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 37.5%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 32.6%
- Analyst Consensus 72% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 15.1%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.13
- Net Margin Trend 49.0% vs 22.2%
- Piotroski F-Score 8/9
未通过（5）
- P/FCF 133.84
- P/B Ratio 45.98
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Share Dilution 6.0%
不可用（3）
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-评分
财务状况强健
盈利质量
高质量：盈利有现金流支撑
股权稀释
正在发行新股，稀释所有权
机构持股
公司治理
管理团队
| 姓名 | 职位 | 年龄 |
|---|---|---|
| Dr. Alexander C. Karp J.D. | Co-Founder, CEO & Director | 58 |
| Mr. Stephen Andrew Cohen | Co-Founder, President, Secretary & Director | 41 |
| Mr. David A. Glazer J.D. | CFO & Treasurer | 40 |
| Mr. Shyam Sankar | CTO & Executive VP | 42 |
| Mr. Ryan D. Taylor J.D. | Chief Revenue Officer & Chief Legal Officer | 42 |
| Mr. Peter Andreas Thiel J.D. | Co-Founder & Chairman | 58 |
| Mr. Joseph Todd Lonsdale | Co-Founder | 42 |
| Mr. Jeffrey Buckley B.S., CPA | Chief Accounting Officer | 41 |
| Mr. David B. MacNaughton | President of Palantir Canada | 75 |
| Kevin Kawasaki | Head of Business Development | - |
审计风险
7
董事会风险
10
薪酬风险
10
股东权利风险
10
第二部分 · 价格与买入时机
这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有：它帮助你在基本面说服你之后，选择何时买入。包含：技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。
损益历史
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for PLTR, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 7d agoPOSITIVEIl titolo Palantir è in forte rialzo: ritesterà il massimo storico o invertirà la rotta?
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is experiencing a strong bullish trend, approaching its all-time high, with momentum building since July. The stock has surged to $19.10, up 80% from its July low, driven by robust technical and fundamental indicators. This rally coincides with a broader rebound in software companies and is fueled by significant revenue expansion, attributed to sustained demand from both government and enterprise clients. The company's latest financial results highlighted a remarkable 93% revenue increase in the second quarter, underscoring its accelerated growth trajectory and positive investor sentiment.
- 8d agoPOSITIVEPalantir’s stock sees its highest close of the year, sealing a dramatic comeback
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) stock achieved its highest closing price of the year, signaling a significant recovery driven by renewed investor optimism following its latest earnings report. The company is capitalizing on the burgeoning artificial intelligence sector, a trend that has clearly resonated with the market. This surge indicates strong confidence in Palantir's business model and its strategic positioning within the AI landscape, potentially attracting further investment and upward price momentum.
- 17d agoPOSITIVEPalantir può vincere anche se il boom dell'AI rallenta: Wall Street vede +50%
Despite a potential slowdown in AI model development, Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) is viewed favorably by Wall Street, with D.A. Davidson raising its price target to $250, suggesting a 50% upside. This optimistic outlook stems from Palantir's business model, which focuses on the deployment of AI by enterprises and governments rather than solely on building the most advanced AI models. This distinction suggests that Palantir's growth is less dependent on the continuous acceleration of AI innovation and more on the broader adoption of AI solutions, making it a potentially resilient AI-related stock.
- 29d agoNEGATIVEPalantir’s stock is slumping. Why bond yields and Google may be to blame.
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is experiencing a significant stock slump, reversing gains from its August post-earnings rally. The company's rich valuation multiple is facing renewed pressure, with market analysts pointing to rising bond yields and potential competition from Google as key contributing factors. Higher bond yields typically make growth stocks like Palantir less attractive as investors seek safer, higher-yielding fixed-income investments. This environment challenges Palantir's premium valuation, suggesting a potential re-evaluation by the market.
- 8/7/2026POSITIVEPalantir’s stock stages best week since 2024 — showing it’s no longer an AI loser
Palantir Technologies Inc. has experienced its best week of trading since early 2024, with its stock surging significantly. This rally is attributed to a resurgence of investor confidence, primarily driven by robust and booming demand for the company's artificial intelligence (AI) solutions. The market perception is shifting, indicating that Palantir is no longer viewed as lagging in the AI race. This strong performance suggests that the company's strategic focus on AI is resonating with customers and investors alike, potentially leading to increased revenue and market share in the competitive tech landscape.
via Markets Gazette