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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)

Fair Value
IndustrialsTruckingUnited States

Fundamental

70

मूल्य

$175.79

मार्केट कैप

$36.27B

भाग 1 · कंपनी का मूल्य कितना है

अवलोकन

Old Dominion Freight Line moves freight that is too small to fill a full truck — a few pallets or boxes rather than an entire trailer — picking up shipments from many customers, sorting them at regional service centers, and combining them onto trucks headed the same direction. It operates this less-than-truckload, or LTL, network itself across the United States with its own drivers, terminals and trucks rather than through franchisees or outside carriers, and adds services like expedited and guaranteed delivery.

यह पैसा कैसे कमाती है

Revenue is charged per shipment, based mainly on weight and distance, so it rises and falls with how much freight moves through the economy rather than with any subscription or long-term contract base. Because the network's fixed costs — terminals, trucks and staff — barely change with volume, profitability depends heavily on keeping trucks and terminals full: a small change in shipment density can swing operating margins by a large amount in either direction.

प्रतिस्पर्धी बढ़त (Moat)

लागत लाभ · संकीर्ण

Decades of investment in a dense, non-union terminal network let Old Dominion run at some of the lowest costs and highest on-time delivery rates in the LTL industry, a combination that is hard for a new or smaller carrier to match quickly. That efficiency shows up in an industry-leading operating ratio, but the LTL market remains competitive on price, so the edge is durable rather than unassailable.

मांग को क्या चलाता है

चक्रीय

LTL shipment volumes track industrial production, retail restocking and manufacturing activity closely, so freight demand slows sharply when the broader economy weakens — 2025 revenue fell as shipment volumes declined during a soft freight market. Pricing tends to be more resilient than volume, since carriers are reluctant to cut rates even when demand softens.

प्रमुख जोखिम

  • Freight cycle and industrial activity — Shipment volumes fall when industrial production, retail restocking and manufacturing activity slow, as happened in 2025; revenue and profitability move directly with the broader freight cycle.
  • Fixed cost operating leverage — Terminals, trucks and drivers are largely fixed costs regardless of volume, so a drop in shipments cannot easily be matched by cost cuts, and operating margins compress quickly in a downturn.
  • Driver and labor availability — The business depends on recruiting and retaining enough qualified drivers and dock workers; a shortage or higher wage costs would raise expenses or limit how much freight the network can move.
  • Fuel price volatility — Diesel is a major operating cost; while fuel surcharges pass much of the cost through to customers, sharp price swings can still create timing mismatches that pressure margins.

ग्राहक Concentration

शीर्ष ग्राहकों का राजस्व में 16% हिस्सा है

The customer base is highly diversified: the single largest customer represented about 4% of 2025 revenue, and the top 10 customers combined represented about 16%.

खरीदने के पक्ष में तर्क

Buyers argue that Old Dominion's dense, non-union network gives it a durable cost and service advantage over LTL rivals, reflected in an industry-leading operating ratio, and that a highly diversified customer base with no meaningful concentration limits the damage any single account can do.

बेचने के पक्ष में तर्क

Sellers fear that the business is fundamentally tied to the industrial and freight cycle, that 2025's volume decline shows how quickly a soft economy erodes results, and that heavy fixed costs in terminals and trucks turn even a modest downturn in shipments into a larger hit to margins.

Written by the editors, published on 18 अगस्त 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 19 सितंबर 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 32.2Score: 68Market cap: $8.90B

A national LTL carrier expanding its terminal network across the United States, competing directly with Old Dominion for the same door-to-door freight on service quality and transit times.

P/E: 52.1Score: 64Market cap: $20.68B

Operates one of the largest North American LTL networks, chasing the same pallet-level freight and the same contract shippers as Old Dominion.

FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.FDXF

The largest less-than-truckload carrier in North America by revenue, it bids for the same national and inter-regional LTL shipments from industrial and retail shippers that Old Dominion serves.

Estes Express Lines, Inc.Not tracked

The largest privately held US LTL carrier, with a nationwide terminal footprint that overlaps almost entirely with Old Dominion's on the same lanes.

ArcBest CorporationARCB

Through ABF Freight it runs a national unionized LTL network selling the same regional and long-haul freight service to industrial customers.

TFI International Inc.TFII

Its TForce Freight unit is a top-ten US LTL carrier, competing for the same cross-border and domestic LTL volumes between the United States and Canada.

बैलेंस शीट और तरलता

राजस्व

$5.60B

पिछले 12 महीने (30/6/2026 तक)

शुद्ध आय

$1.09B

पिछले 12 महीने (30/6/2026 तक)

Free Cash Flow

$955M

कुल इक्विटी

$4.31B

कुल देनदारियाँ

$1.16B

Current Ratio

1.89

Interest Coverage

-

Debt/EBITDA

0.01

Earnings Per Share

राजस्व और शुद्ध आय

Free Cash Flow

आय विवरण

ऐतिहासिक विवरण

समय के साथ मार्जिन

समय के साथ ऋण

ऋण कितना भारी है

वृद्धि तालिका

वृद्धि — राजस्व

Fair Value अनुमान

सामान्य मामलाउचित मूल्यांकित

Fair Value

$150.97

वर्तमान मूल्य

$175.79

Margin of Safety

-16.4%

Fair Value सीमा

$98.13 - $203.81

इस्तेमाल किए गए valuation methods के बीच का फैलाव, कोई सांख्यिकीय रूप से calibrated confidence interval नहीं।

अनुमान विधियाँ

विश्लेषकों का लक्ष्य मूल्य:$228.78
डिस्काउंटेड कैश फ्लो (DCF):$91.09
आय गुणक (P/E):$143.54
Graham वृद्धि फॉर्मूला:$141.86
अर्निंग पावर वैल्यू (EPV):$50.74
उचित P/B:$63.45
लाभांश डिस्काउंट (Gordon):$17.10
P/FFO, परिचालन से प्राप्त निधि:$107.13
मध्य-चक्र आय:$99.50
राजस्व गुणक:$76.34
विश्लेषक सहमति:खरीदें (14B / 15H / 2S)
अंतिम Earnings सरप्राइज़:+9.03%

मूल्यांकन मेट्रिक्स

P/E Ratio

33.43

ROE

23.7%

P/B Ratio

7.93

P/FCF

32.34

Gross Margin

-

ROIC

22.0%

लाभप्रदता Radar

मूल्य सृजन (प्रतिस्पर्धी बढ़त)

ROIC

22.0%

WACC

10.8%

ROIC − WACC

+11.2 pp

ROIC पूंजी की लागत से अधिक है — कंपनी शेयरधारकों के लिए मूल्य सृजित कर रही है।

Fundamental विश्लेषण मानदंड

पास (18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 8.39%
  • Price CAGR 20.05%
  • ROIC 22.0%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 25.8%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 24.9%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 6.5%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 4.9%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.28
  • Share Dilution -2.3%
  • Net Margin Trend 19.4% vs 19.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

फेल (7)

  • P/FCF 32.34
  • P/B Ratio 7.93
  • CapEx intensity
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Analyst Consensus 45% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 2.99

अनुपलब्ध (3)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

मिश्रित संकेत: कुछ क्षेत्रों पर ध्यान देना आवश्यक

score
criteria

Earnings गुणवत्ता

1.28

उच्च गुणवत्ता: earnings नकदी द्वारा समर्थित

शेयर Dilution

-2.3%

शेयर वापस खरीद रही है। शेयरधारक अनुकूल

संस्थागत होल्डिंग

प्रशासन

कार्यकारी टीम

नामपदआयु
Mr. David S. CongdonExecutive Chairman of the Board68
Mr. Kevin M. FreemanPresident, CEO & Director66
Mr. Adam N. Satterfield CPAExecutive VP, Assistant Secretary & CFO50
Mr. Gregory B. PlemmonsExecutive VP & COO59
Mr. Ross H. ParrSenior VP of Legal Affairs, General Counsel & Secretary53
Mr. Cecil E. Overbey Jr.Senior Vice President of Strategic Development63
Mr. Earl E. CongdonChairman Emeritus & Senior Advisor94
Mr. Clayton G. BrinkerVP of Accounting & Finance and Principal Accounting Officer39
Mr. Jack Lawrence AtkinsDirector of Investor Relations-
Sam FaucetteVice President of Safety & Compliance-

Audit जोखिम

5

बोर्ड जोखिम

9

मुआवजा जोखिम

2

शेयरधारक अधिकार जोखिम

9

भाग 2 · कीमत और खरीदने का समय

यह हिस्सा यह नहीं बताता कि कंपनी अच्छी है या नहीं: यह तय करने में मदद करता है कि उसे कब खरीदें, जब फंडामेंटल आपको आश्वस्त कर चुके हों। इसमें: तकनीकी विश्लेषण, संभावना, ऐतिहासिक गिरावट, गामा एक्सपोज़र।

दस्तावेज़

  • वार्षिक रिपोर्ट (10-K)

    कंपनी के कारोबार, वित्तीय नतीजों और जोखिमों का वार्षिक सिंहावलोकन।

    दाखिल तिथि: 2026-02-24

    दस्तावेज़ देखें
  • तिमाही रिपोर्ट (10-Q)

    पिछले तीन महीनों के वित्तीय प्रदर्शन का अपडेट।

    दाखिल तिथि: 2026-08-05

    दस्तावेज़ देखें
  • विशेष रिपोर्ट (8-K)

    किसी बड़ी घटना, जैसे नेतृत्व में बदलाव या बड़ी घोषणा, की सूचना।

    दाखिल तिथि: 2026-09-22

    दस्तावेज़ देखें

via SEC EDGAR

आय का इतिहास

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for ODFL, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 3d agoNEUTRAL
    Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index: Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)

    Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index features Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), a prominent less-than-truckload carrier. The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth per hundredweight annually since fiscal year 2020. Furthermore, ODFL has strategically expanded its network capacity, positioning itself to accommodate future increases in freight volume. This analysis highlights ODFL's operational strength and potential for continued expansion within the freight industry, making it a notable component of the Nasdaq-100® index.

  • 6/20/2026NEGATIVE
    Here's Why Old Dominion Freight Line Stock Slumped This Week

    Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) stock experienced a significant downturn this week, despite a general recovery observed in the broader freight market. The market's anticipation of this recovery appears to have already been factored into sector stock valuations, leaving little room for further upside. Investors are likely reassessing the stock's premium in light of this 'priced-in' recovery, leading to the price slump. This suggests that while the industry fundamentals are improving, ODFL may have been overvalued based on future expectations.

via Markets Gazette

Disclaimer

यह प्लेटफ़ॉर्म केवल शैक्षिक उद्देश्यों के लिए है। यह कोई वित्तीय, निवेश, या ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं देता। सभी स्कोर, मूल्यांकन, और संकेत सार्वजनिक रूप से उपलब्ध डेटा के स्वचालित विश्लेषण पर आधारित हैं जो अधूरे या गलत हो सकते हैं। निवेश निर्णय लेने से पहले हमेशा अपना शोध करें और एक योग्य वित्तीय सलाहकार से परामर्श लें।

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