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Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)

適正価値
Consumer CyclicalTravel ServicesUnited States

ファンダメンタル

73

株価

$160.23

時価総額

$90.65B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Airbnb runs an online marketplace that connects travelers with hosts renting out rooms, homes and, increasingly, local experiences and services. It never owns the properties listed: hosts set their own prices and availability, and Airbnb's software handles search, booking, payment and reviews. The company takes a cut of each transaction from both the guest and the host, functioning more like a matchmaking platform than a traditional hotel operator.

収益の仕組み

Revenue is a service fee charged on each booking, split between a percentage taken from the host's payout and a separate fee added to the guest's price, so revenue rises directly with the total dollar value of trips booked on the platform. Because Airbnb owns no real estate, its costs are mostly software, marketing and customer support rather than property upkeep, letting incremental bookings convert to profit at a high rate once the platform is built.

セグメント別売上高

North America42.5%

Bookings across the United States and Canada, Airbnb's largest and most mature market, though growth here has slowed to single digits.

Europe, Middle East and Africa38.6%

Bookings across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Airbnb's fastest-growing large region in the most recent year.

Latin America9.5%

Bookings across Latin America, a smaller region that has recently grown faster than Airbnb's home US market.

Asia Pacific9.4%

Bookings across Asia-Pacific markets, similarly small in dollar terms but growing quickly off a lower base.

競争優位性(moat)

ネットワーク効果 · 狭い

More listings attract more travelers, and more travelers searching the platform attract more hosts to list, which is the classic two-sided network effect. But switching costs are low: a host can list the same property on a rival site with a few clicks, so the advantage depends on staying the largest marketplace rather than on any lock-in.

需要を左右する要因

景気循環型

Travel spending is discretionary and among the first things households cut when budgets tighten, so bookings track consumer confidence and disposable income. Demand is also seasonal within each year and sensitive to currency swings that make international trips cheaper or more expensive for travelers from a given country.

主なリスク

  • Regulation of short-term rentals — Cities and countries increasingly restrict or ban short-term home rentals, as New York City has done; if more major markets follow, Airbnb's inventory of listings and bookings would shrink.
  • Dependence on host supply — Airbnb depends on hosts choosing to list, and to keep listing, on its platform rather than a competitor's or a long-term rental market; anything that reduces host participation directly reduces the business.
  • Competition from hotels and platforms — Traditional hotel chains and other booking platforms compete for the same travelers, and hotels have the resources to lobby for regulation that favors licensed lodging over private rentals.
  • Sensitivity to travel spending — Because travel is discretionary spending, a recession or a shock to consumer confidence anywhere in the world can reduce bookings quickly and simultaneously across regions.

強気材料

Buyers argue that Airbnb's marketplace of millions of listings across almost every country gives it a scale advantage few rivals can match, and that expansion into experiences and services opens new revenue without needing new travelers.

弱気材料

Sellers worry that city-by-city bans on short-term rentals could steadily shrink the available inventory of listings, that switching a listing to a competing platform costs a host almost nothing, and that travel spending is one of the first things households cut when money is tight.

2025会計年度のセグメントデータ情報源: Airbnb, Inc. — Form 10-K, esercizio 2025Airbnb Revenue Breakdown By Region

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年8月23日 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 1.0Score: 83Market cap: $118.27B

Booking.com is the world's largest online travel agency and has built the biggest alternative-accommodation inventory outside Airbnb, so the two bid for the same hosts and the same travellers booking a home or an apartment, above all in Europe.

P/E: 16.5Score: 72Market cap: $29.96B

Through Vrbo, Expedia runs the other large whole-home rental marketplace in the United States, competing for the same property managers and the same family and group trips that Airbnb targets.

P/E: 36.8Score: 80Market cap: $91.66B

Marriott is the largest hotel group and, with Homes & Villas by Marriott Bonvoy, sells short-term home stays to the same leisure traveller, using its loyalty programme to keep the booking inside its own channel.

P/E: 7.7Score: 61Market cap: $25.21B

Trip.com Group is the dominant travel booking platform in China and across Asia-Pacific, competing with Airbnb for outbound Asian travellers and for accommodation supply in the region Airbnb is trying to expand into.

P/E: 46.7Score: 77Market cap: $72.08B

Hilton competes for the same nights of paid lodging, especially in cities where a mid-range hotel room and an Airbnb listing are interchangeable choices for the same traveller.

GetYourGuide Deutschland GmbHNot tracked

GetYourGuide sells tours and local activities to travellers at destination, the same market Airbnb Experiences competes in and which Airbnb names among its competitors.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$13.16B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$2.69B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

-

自己資本合計

$8.20B

負債合計

$14.01B

流動比率

1.41

利払い倍率

-

負債/EBITDA

0.90

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

一般的なケース適正価値

適正価値

$153.73

現在株価

$160.23

安全マージン

-4.2%

適正価値レンジ

$111.92 - $195.53

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$184.35
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
利益倍率(P/E):$118.37
グレアムの成長公式:$71.31
収益力価値(EPV):$31.52
正当化されたP/B:$46.05
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
中間サイクル利益:算出に必要なデータが不足しています
売上高倍率:$37.78
アナリスト・コンセンサス:買い (30B / 19H / 2S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+7.29%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

36.59

ROE

30.6%

P/B レシオ

8.64

P/FCF

-

粗利益率

82.9%

ROIC

20.3%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

20.3%

WACC

11.2%

ROIC − WACC

+9.1 pp

ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(15)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • ROIC 20.3%
  • Gross Margin 82.9%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 20.8%
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 33.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 29.4%
  • Analyst Consensus 59% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.81
  • Share Dilution -3.3%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

不合格(6)

  • Price CAGR 0.31%
  • P/B Ratio 8.64
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -7.1%
  • Net Margin Trend 20.4% vs 22.7%

データなし(6)

  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest Coverage
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-スコア

5/9

まちまちのシグナル:一部の領域に注意が必要

score
criteria

利益の質

1.81

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

-3.3%

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Brian CheskyCo-Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board43
Mr. Nathan BlecharczykCo-Founder, Chief Strategy Officer & Director41
Mr. Joseph GebbiaCo-Founder & Director43
Ms. Elinor B. MertzChief Financial Officer48
Mr. Gus FuldnerHead of Global Operations-
Mr. David C. BernsteinChief Accounting Officer63
Mr. Ahmad Al-DahleChief Technology Officer-
Ms. Angela YangDirector of Investor Relations-
Mr. Ronald A. Klain J.D.Chief Legal Officer-
Mr. Jay CarneyGlobal Head of Policy & Communications-

監査リスク

9

取締役会リスク

10

報酬リスク

9

株主権利リスク

10

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

書類

  • 年次報告書(10-K)

    事業内容、財務実績、リスクをまとめた年次の概要。

    提出日: 2026-02-12

    書類を見る
  • 四半期報告書(10-Q)

    直近3か月間の業績に関する最新情報。

    提出日: 2026-08-06

    書類を見る
  • 臨時報告書(8-K)

    経営陣の交代や重要な発表など、大きな出来事に関するお知らせ。

    提出日: 2026-08-06

    書類を見る

via SEC EDGAR

業績推移

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for ABNB, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 7d agoNEGATIVE
    Le azioni Airbnb precipitano per i rischi dell'agente AI Muse: rimbalzeranno?

    Airbnb shares have fallen to $149.58, their lowest point since August 6th, marking a 23% decline from last month's peak. This downturn is attributed to investor concerns regarding Meta Platforms' new AI agent, Muse. The AI platform is perceived as a potential disruptor to Airbnb's core business model. Competitors like Booking Holdings and TripAdvisor have also experienced significant drops, indicating a broader market apprehension about AI's impact on the travel sector. The current price action suggests that the market is pricing in a substantial threat to Airbnb's future growth prospects.

  • 8/6/2026POSITIVE
    Airbnb Lifts 2026 Outlook Again on US, European Demand

    Airbnb Inc. has raised its annual revenue forecast for the second time this year, signaling strong and sustained global travel demand. The company highlighted robust performance particularly in the US and European markets, indicating resilience and growth potential. This upward revision suggests that Airbnb is effectively capitalizing on current travel trends and consumer spending. Investors will likely view this positive outlook as a testament to the company's strategic positioning and operational efficiency, potentially driving increased interest and investment in its stock.

  • 7/16/2026NEGATIVE
    Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky’s X account was hijacked in an AI slop hack pushing crypto tokenization

    Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky's X (formerly Twitter) account was reportedly compromised in an "AI slop hack" that promoted cryptocurrency tokenization. While the hack targeted the CEO's personal account and not Airbnb's corporate systems, such incidents can erode trust and raise concerns about digital security. Investors may view this as a reputational risk, potentially impacting consumer confidence in the platform's security measures. The incident highlights the growing threat of AI-driven cyberattacks and their potential to affect high-profile individuals and their associated companies.

  • 5/9/2026POSITIVE
    Airbnb Reveals AI Agents Now Handle 60% Of New Coding— CEO Brian Chesky Says That Allows One Engineer To Do Work Of 20

    Airbnb reported that AI generated 60% of its new code in the first quarter, a significant leap in operational efficiency. This advancement, coupled with strong revenue growth and expanding AI-driven operations, suggests a substantial increase in productivity. CEO Brian Chesky highlighted that this allows one engineer to perform the work of twenty. For investors, this indicates a potential for significant cost savings and accelerated development cycles, positioning Airbnb for enhanced profitability and competitive advantage in the travel technology sector.

  • 5/7/2026POSITIVE
    Airbnb is seeing some of its fastest growth from this surprising segment

    Airbnb is experiencing robust growth in a previously unexpected segment: hotel bookings. This strategic pivot, launched recently, is showing early signs of significant demand, potentially diversifying its revenue streams beyond traditional short-term rentals. While the company navigates geopolitical disruptions like the Iran war, the success of its hotel offering suggests a strong market reception and could lead to increased bookings and revenue. Investors will be watching this segment closely as it represents a key area of future expansion and potential market share gains.

  • 4/22/2026NEUTRAL
    Performance Comparison: Airbnb And Competitors In Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure Industry

    The article provides a performance comparison of Airbnb against its competitors within the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. While specific financial figures or market share data are not detailed in the provided snippet, the focus on comparative performance suggests an analysis of market positioning and competitive dynamics. Investors should note that such comparisons are crucial for understanding a company's strategic standing and potential for future growth or market share erosion. The lack of explicit positive or negative catalysts indicates a neutral stance pending further details on the performance metrics.

  • 3/27/2026NEGATIVE
    Airbnb Stock Falls As Inflation, Energy Costs Pressure Travel Outlook

    Airbnb shares declined Friday, mirroring a broader downturn in travel stocks. The slump is attributed to escalating energy costs, persistent inflation concerns, and a dip in consumer confidence, all of which can dampen discretionary spending on travel. Investors are weighing the potential impact of these macroeconomic headwinds on future booking volumes and profitability for companies in the travel and hospitality sector. The current environment suggests a cautious outlook for the industry.

  • 3/12/2026NEGATIVE
    Airbnb Stock Slides As Middle East Tensions Threaten Global Travel Demand

    Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ: ABNB) experienced a significant decline in its stock value as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated, casting a shadow over global travel demand. Investors are closely monitoring the situation, as disruptions to international travel could directly impact booking volumes and revenue for the company. The uncertainty surrounding the conflict's duration and scope poses a risk to Airbnb's forward-looking guidance and growth projections, leading to a cautious market sentiment.

via Markets Gazette