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Carlisle Companies Inc (CSL)

割安
IndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentUnited States

ファンダメンタル

71

株価

$317.67

時価総額

$12.96B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Carlisle Companies is a US manufacturer of building envelope products — the materials that keep water, air and heat from passing through the outside shell of a building. After selling its interconnect and fluid-technology businesses, it is now a pure-play building products company organized in two segments: Carlisle Construction Materials, which makes commercial roofing systems (EPDM, TPO and PVC single-ply membranes, polyiso insulation, metal roofing and wall panels), and Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies, which makes waterproofing, air and vapor barriers, roofing underlayments, spray polyurethane foam and related products for commercial and residential buildings. Manufacturing is concentrated in the United States, with additional plants in Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Romania.

収益の仕組み

Carlisle sells physical products at a unit price: it manufactures membranes, insulation boards, sealants and accessories and sells them through a network of authorized sales representatives and distributors in North America and Europe, and through distribution and retail outlets for the weatherproofing business. There is no subscription or recurring-fee component — revenue is recognized when the product ships. The recurring element comes from the building stock itself: roofs wear out, so replacement demand repeats on a multi-decade cycle. Profitability turns on two things the filing highlights: the spread between selling prices and raw material costs (petroleum-based inputs are roughly 66% of cost of goods sold) and the mix of higher-margin roofing systems sold with warranties and accessories rather than bare commodity membrane.

セグメント別売上高

Carlisle Construction Materials (CCM)74.1%

Single-ply commercial roofing systems — EPDM, TPO and PVC membrane, polyiso insulation, engineered metal roofing and wall panels — sold with warranties to commercial building owners through authorized distributors and roofing contractors in North America and Europe. Roughly 70% of the commercial roofing business is re-roofing rather than new construction.

Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies (CWT)25.9%

Building envelope products below and around the roof line: waterproofing and moisture protection, roofing underlayments, air and vapor barriers, spray polyurethane foam, expanded polystyrene insulation and engineered HVAC products, for both commercial and residential buildings, sold through distribution and retail outlets in North America.

競争優位性(moat)

規模の経済 · 狭い

Carlisle is one of a small group of manufacturers with enough plant capacity and geographic coverage to supply large commercial roofing jobs across North America, and it is vertically integrated into polyiso insulation, which lets it sell a complete system rather than a component. The system is sold with a long-dated warranty honoured only when installed by an authorized contractor, which ties both the distributor and the roofing crew to the brand. The advantage is real but limited: the filing itself names several competitors and states that competition creates pricing pressure on operating margins, and a roofing membrane remains a substitutable product once a building owner is willing to requalify a supplier.

需要を左右する要因

中程度の景気循環性

Demand sits between defensive and cyclical, and the split inside the business explains why. Roughly 70% of the commercial roofing business is re-roofing: a leaking roof is replaced whether or not the economy is good, and the company points out that over 70% of North America's non-residential building stock is more than 25 years old, which keeps a base level of replacement work flowing. The remaining new-construction share behaves like a classic construction cycle and is tied to interest rates, credit availability and non-residential starts — in 2025 the company described continued headwinds in new construction across both residential and non-residential markets while re-roofing stabilized the business. Energy-efficiency codes and retrofit incentives add a structural, slower-moving driver on top.

主なリスク

  • Dependence on construction markets and on repair and replacement activity — The company states that most of its revenues come from construction end markets, and that a decline in commercial or residential construction — or specifically in repair and replacement activity — would materially affect demand for its products.
  • Concentration in a small number of large customers — CCM's two largest customers represented 33% of consolidated revenues in 2025. The company states that losing either of them, or facing pricing pressure from these key distributors, could have a material adverse effect on consolidated revenues and operating income.
  • Raw material cost volatility — Petroleum-based products represent approximately 66% of cost of goods sold. The company warns that increases in these input costs may not be recovered through price increases to customers.
  • Competition and pricing pressure — The company operates against multiple competitors in each of its product lines and discloses that competitive pricing pressure can compress operating margins.
  • Reliance on acquisitions and on integrating them — Growth depends in part on acquiring businesses. The company states that failure to integrate an acquisition, or underperformance against the assumptions behind it, could lead to a material impairment of goodwill and intangible assets.
  • Disruption at a limited number of production facilities — Production is concentrated in a limited number of locations; the company discloses that natural disasters, equipment failure or a cyberattack affecting one of them could severely disrupt operations.
  • Environmental, climate and product liability exposure — The company is subject to stringent environmental regulation and possible liabilities from historical operations, notes that greenhouse gas regulation could raise compliance costs, and discloses that defects in building products could trigger lawsuits for which insurance may be inadequate.

顧客集中度

主要顧客が売上高の33%を占める

The filing discloses that CCM's two largest customers together represented 33% of the Company's consolidated revenues in 2025, and warns that losing either one could materially hurt revenues and operating income. These are distributors rather than end users: the buildings that ultimately receive the roof are many and unrelated, but the route to them passes through very few intermediaries, which is where the bargaining power sits. The filing does not disclose the split between the two, nor a figure for the top five or top ten customers.

強気材料

Buyers argue that Carlisle has become a focused, high-margin building envelope manufacturer after shedding its aerospace and fluid-technology businesses, and that the roofing business it kept is the best part of the old conglomerate. They point to the replacement nature of the demand — about 70% of commercial roofing is re-roofing, on a building stock where more than 70% of non-residential square footage is over 25 years old — as a floor under volumes that does not depend on new construction recovering. They note that CCM earned roughly a quarter of its revenue as segment operating income in 2025 even in a down year for construction, that energy-efficiency codes push owners toward the insulated systems Carlisle sells, and that the company generates enough cash to keep buying back stock and acquiring adjacent weatherproofing businesses. Their view is that when new non-residential and residential construction stops falling, the operating leverage on an already-built manufacturing base shows up quickly.

弱気材料

Sellers fear that the 2025 numbers show the limits of the story: revenue was essentially flat, operating income fell about 12% to $1,002.5 million and the operating margin slipped from 22.8% to 20.0%, while the weatherproofing segment earned only $101.9 million of operating income on $1,298.2 million of revenue. They point to the input side — petroleum-based products are roughly 66% of cost of goods sold, and the company itself warns those increases may not be passed through — and to the customer side, where two distributors control 33% of consolidated revenue and can press on price. They also note that the company has narrowed itself to a single end market: with almost all revenue tied to construction, there is no longer a second business to offset a building downturn, and the growth plan leans on acquisitions, which the filing flags as a source of potential goodwill impairment if they underperform.

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 19.1Score: 67Market cap: $12.80B

Its Tremco unit sells commercial roofing systems, sealants, air barriers and waterproofing to building owners and architects, overlapping squarely with Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies.

Amrize Ltd. (Elevate, formerly Firestone Building Products)AMRZ

Its Elevate brand sells the same TPO, EPDM and polyiso insulation systems for North American commercial low-slope roofs, through the same roofing contractors and distributors Carlisle sells to.

GAF (Standard Industries Holdings Inc.)Not tracked

GAF's commercial division offers single-ply membranes, cover boards and polyiso insulation in direct competition with Carlisle Construction Materials on U.S. commercial roofing projects; it is privately held by Standard Industries.

Johns Manville CorporationNot tracked

A wholly owned Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary whose roofing arm makes TPO, PVC, EPDM membranes and polyiso insulation for the same commercial building-envelope specifications Carlisle bids on.

Sika AGSIKA

Through Sarnafil and Sikaplan it is the reference supplier of PVC and TPO single-ply membranes for commercial roofs and waterproofing, competing with Carlisle in North America and across Europe.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$5.10B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$724M

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$971M

自己資本合計

$1.80B

負債合計

$4.47B

流動比率

2.60

利払い倍率

9.71

負債/EBITDA

2.41

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

一般的なケース割安

適正価値

$639.15

現在株価

$317.67

安全マージン

+50.3%

適正価値レンジ

$415.45 - $862.86

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$410.38
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):$1392.82
利益倍率(P/E):$249.23
グレアムの成長公式:$879.79
収益力価値(EPV):$222.41
正当化されたP/B:$329.97
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):$89.68
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):$377.58
中間サイクル利益:$351.34
売上高倍率:$357.90
アナリスト・コンセンサス:買い (10B / 7H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+9.55%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

18.47

ROE

41.3%

P/B レシオ

7.91

P/FCF

14.76

粗利益率

35.3%

ROIC

15.0%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

15.0%

WACC

7.7%

ROIC − WACC

+7.3 pp

ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(21)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 18.84%
  • Price CAGR 11.76%
  • ROIC 15.0%
  • Gross Margin 35.3%
  • P/FCF 14.76
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 19.9%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 41.1%
  • Analyst Consensus 59% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 6.9%
  • PEG Ratio 0.73
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.39
  • Share Dilution -8.2%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

不合格(6)

  • P/B Ratio 7.91
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 3.4%
  • Net Margin Trend 14.2% vs 16.1%

データなし(1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-スコア

5/9

まちまちのシグナル:一部の領域に注意が必要

score
criteria

利益の質

1.39

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

-8.2%

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. D. Christian KochChairman, President & CEO60
Mr. Kevin P. ZdimalVP & CFO55
Mr. Frank J. ReadyPresident of Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies63
Mr. Andrew C. EastonVP & Chief Accounting Officer38
Mr. Mehul S. PatelVice President of Investor Relations46
Mr. Christopher Burke Gaskill J.D.VP & General Counsel43
Ms. Susan WallaceVP & Chief Human Resources Officer60
Ms. Kelly P. KamienskiVice President of Finance of Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies42
Mr. Stephen P. AldrichChief Financial Officer for Carlisle Construction Materials44
Mr. David W. SmithVice President of Sustainability & Community Relations62

監査リスク

4

取締役会リスク

5

報酬リスク

3

株主権利リスク

4

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

書類

  • 年次報告書(10-K)

    事業内容、財務実績、リスクをまとめた年次の概要。

    提出日: 2026-02-13

    書類を見る
  • 四半期報告書(10-Q)

    直近3か月間の業績に関する最新情報。

    提出日: 2026-07-30

    書類を見る
  • 臨時報告書(8-K)

    経営陣の交代や重要な発表など、大きな出来事に関するお知らせ。

    提出日: 2026-09-10

    書類を見る

via SEC EDGAR

業績推移

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for CSL, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 5/10/2026NEGATIVE
    CSL Cuts Profit Outlook, Flags $5 Billion in New Impairments

    CSL Limited has significantly lowered its full-year profit forecast and announced an additional $5 billion in impairments. The company cited a review by its interim chief executive, indicating that a turnaround will require more time than previously anticipated. This downward revision suggests potential operational challenges and a longer path to recovery, which could impact investor sentiment and the company's valuation in the short to medium term.

via Markets Gazette