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Dropbox, Inc. (DBX)

適正価値
TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureUnited States

ファンダメンタル

69

株価

$34.02

時価総額

$7.10B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Dropbox sells cloud storage and file-sharing subscriptions: customers pay a monthly or annual fee to keep files synced across devices and shared with others, rather than buying storage as a one-off purchase. Around the core storage product it has added e-signature (Dropbox Sign), document tracking (DocSend), form creation (FormSwift) and an AI-powered search tool (Dash), aiming to keep individuals, freelancers and small businesses inside one subscription instead of losing them to separate point solutions.

収益の仕組み

Revenue comes almost entirely from subscriptions billed to individuals, freelancers and small business teams rather than from large enterprise contracts, and the company reports it as a single business rather than in separate segments. Because storage itself has become a commodity that Microsoft and Google give away bundled into Office 365 and Google Workspace, Dropbox's ability to keep or raise prices depends on customers valuing its added tools enough to pay for a stand-alone product.

競争優位性(moat)

明確な優位性なし · なし

Dropbox itself states that competitors with greater name recognition and larger user bases can bundle a broader range of products and undercut it on price, and that less expensive, bundled alternatives have already hurt its user growth. Files stored in Dropbox create some switching friction, but not enough to stop paying users from plateauing as Microsoft and Google give storage away for free inside suites customers already buy.

需要を左右する要因

中程度の景気循環性

Demand for Dropbox's core service is fairly steady — files and documents need to be stored and shared regardless of the economic cycle — but paying users have plateaued at around 18 million as free, bundled alternatives from Microsoft and Google absorb new demand. Growth now depends more on convincing existing customers to add tools like e-signature or AI search than on winning new storage customers, and small-business customers can also cut software spending in a downturn.

主なリスク

  • Competition from larger, bundled providers — The company states that competitors such as Microsoft, Google and Amazon have greater name recognition, larger user bases and the ability to bundle storage with broader product suites, and that less expensive, bundled offerings have already hurt user growth.
  • Paying user growth has stalled — Paying users have plateaued at around 18 million, and fiscal 2025 revenue actually declined slightly year over year, reflecting weaker performance in Teams and reduced investment in FormSwift.
  • Currency exposure — About half of revenue is generated outside the United States and 27% of sales are denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, so a stronger dollar reduces reported revenue relative to costs.

顧客集中度

主要顧客が売上高の1%を占める

No single customer accounted for more than 1% of revenue in 2025, 2024 or 2023: revenue is spread across millions of individual and small-business subscribers rather than concentrated in a few large accounts.

強気材料

Buyers argue that Dropbox's high operating margins and cash generation let it return capital to shareholders even with flat revenue, that expanding beyond storage into e-signature, document tracking and AI search gives it more to sell to an existing base with almost no customer concentration, and that a stabilized paying-user count of 18 million provides a steady subscription foundation.

弱気材料

Sellers worry that free, bundled storage inside Microsoft 365 and Google Workspace has commoditized Dropbox's core product and capped paying-user growth for years, that revenue actually declined slightly in 2025, and that newer tools like Dash AI have yet to prove they can offset churn in the core storage business.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 28.6Score: 72Market cap: $3.70T

OneDrive and SharePoint, bundled into Microsoft 365, target the same business file storage and collaboration budget Dropbox sells into, and Dropbox names Microsoft first among its competitors.

P/E: 37.9Score: 70Market cap: $4.90T

iCloud paid storage tiers capture the consumer and prosumer subscription revenue Dropbox relies on, particularly among Mac and iPhone users who would otherwise pay Dropbox for sync across devices.

P/E: 13.5Score: 68Market cap: $92.99B

Adobe competes with Dropbox both in document workflow and, through Adobe Acrobat Sign, directly against Dropbox Sign for electronic signature subscriptions.

P/E: 42.5Score: 73Market cap: $12.89B

DocuSign is the reference product in electronic signature, the market Dropbox entered with Dropbox Sign and where the two chase the same contract-signing customers.

Box, Inc.BOX

Dropbox names Box in its 10-K as its competitor for large-enterprise cloud storage deployments, where both sell content collaboration and governance to the same IT buyers.

Alphabet Inc. (Google)GOOGL

Google Drive and Google Workspace compete for the same individual and small-business subscribers who pay for online file storage, sharing and document collaboration.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$2.53B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$443M

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$931M

自己資本合計

$-1.80B

負債合計

$4.64B

流動比率

1.07

利払い倍率

-

負債/EBITDA

0.85

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

一般的なケース適正価値

適正価値

$40.59

現在株価

$34.02

安全マージン

+16.2%

適正価値レンジ

$26.38 - $54.79

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$31.80
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):$81.43
利益倍率(P/E):$18.91
グレアムの成長公式:$29.47
収益力価値(EPV):$29.36
正当化されたP/B:算出に必要なデータが不足しています
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
中間サイクル利益:$3.12
売上高倍率:$54.93
アナリスト・コンセンサス:保有 (1B / 7H / 8S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+0.68%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

18.93

ROE

-28.3%

P/B レシオ

-

P/FCF

10.42

粗利益率

79.7%

ROIC

32.3%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

32.3%

WACC

7.3%

ROIC − WACC

+25.1 pp

ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(16)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 6.66%
  • ROIC 32.3%
  • Gross Margin 79.7%
  • P/FCF 10.42
  • Operating Margin 26.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 5.7%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 5.4%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.21
  • Share Dilution -15.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

不合格(5)

  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • ROE -36.8%
  • Analyst Consensus 6% Buy
  • Net Margin Trend 17.5% vs 19.2%

データなし(6)

  • P/B Ratio NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-スコア

6/9

まちまちのシグナル:一部の領域に注意が必要

score
criteria

利益の質

2.21

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

-15.4%

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Andrew W. HoustonCo-Founder, Co-CEO & Chairman42
Mr. Ashraf AlkarmiCo-CEO & Director46
Mr. Ross TennenbaumChief Financial Officer47
Mr. Ali DasdanChief Technology Officer55
Mr. William YoonChief Legal Officer46
Ms. Sarah Elizabeth SchubachChief Accounting Officer-
Ms. Saman AsheerChief Communications Officer-
Mr. Boon LaiChief Marketing Officer-
Ms. Melanie RosenwasserChief People Officer-
Mr. Eric WebsterChief Business Officer47

監査リスク

4

取締役会リスク

8

報酬リスク

8

株主権利リスク

10

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

書類

  • 年次報告書(10-K)

    事業内容、財務実績、リスクをまとめた年次の概要。

    提出日: 2026-02-20

    書類を見る
  • 四半期報告書(10-Q)

    直近3か月間の業績に関する最新情報。

    提出日: 2026-08-07

    書類を見る
  • 臨時報告書(8-K)

    経営陣の交代や重要な発表など、大きな出来事に関するお知らせ。

    提出日: 2026-08-06

    書類を見る

via SEC EDGAR

業績推移

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for DBX, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 3/9/2026NEGATIVE
    Is Dropbox Stock a Buy or Sell After the CEO Sold Shares Worth $4.2 Million?

    Dropbox CEO Drew Houston offloaded 150,000 shares of the cloud storage company's stock for approximately $4.2 million. This significant insider selling, disclosed in a recent SEC filing, raises concerns among investors about the executive's confidence in the company's near-term prospects. While the sale represents a small fraction of Houston's total holdings, such large transactions can sometimes signal a lack of positive catalysts or potential headwinds ahead. Investors often interpret insider selling as a bearish signal, prompting a re-evaluation of their positions.

via Markets Gazette