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eBay Inc. (EBAY)

合理估值
Consumer CyclicalInternet RetailUnited States

基本面

68

价格

$106.80

市值

$47.98B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

eBay runs an online marketplace where individuals and small businesses list items for other people to buy, rather than selling its own inventory. It does not hold stock or ship most packages itself: sellers do that, and eBay's job is to bring buyers and sellers together and process the payment safely. Its strongest categories today are collectibles, such as trading cards, and fashion, alongside longstanding strength in auto parts and consumer electronics.

盈利方式

eBay charges sellers a percentage of each completed sale plus fixed listing fees, so its revenue moves with the total value of goods bought and sold through the platform — $79.6 billion in 2025, against net revenue of $11.1 billion — rather than with any inventory eBay itself owns. A growing second income stream comes from advertising: sellers pay to have their listings promoted higher in search results, a business with almost no added cost to serve.

护城河

网络效应 · 狭窄

More buyers attract more sellers listing items, and more listings give buyers a reason to search eBay first, a loop that is strongest in categories like collectibles and used parts where eBay has decades of accumulated listings and buyer trust. That advantage is only narrow, though: general shopping demand has largely moved to Amazon, and specific categories face focused rivals such as Vinted in fashion or dedicated marketplaces in collectibles.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

eBay sells mostly discretionary and often used or collectible goods, so buying activity softens when households pull back on non-essential spending, but the platform's mix of new, used and collectible items gives it some cushion compared with a pure new-goods retailer, since bargain-seeking can rise even as overall spending falls.

主要风险

  • Competition from larger e-commerce platforms — Amazon and other large platforms compete for the same buyer attention and, in many categories, offer faster shipping and a more standardized experience, pressuring eBay's share of general online shopping.
  • Cross-border trade and tariff exposure — A meaningful share of eBay's activity crosses international borders, and changes to tariffs and duty-free import thresholds can raise costs for buyers and sellers and reduce transaction volume.
  • Dependence on seller participation — Because eBay does not own the inventory sold on its platform, it depends on independent sellers choosing to list and price competitively there rather than on a competing marketplace.
  • Trust, fraud and counterfeit risk — A marketplace's value depends on buyers trusting that items will arrive as described; fraud, counterfeit goods or payment disputes that erode that trust can push activity toward more controlled competitors.

看多理由

Buyers argue that eBay's decades of accumulated listings and buyer trust in categories like collectibles and used parts are hard to replicate, that advertising revenue can keep growing faster than the core marketplace with little added cost, and that the business generates substantial cash without needing to hold inventory.

看空理由

Sellers fear that general shopping demand has permanently shifted to Amazon and other faster platforms, that changes to cross-border tariffs threaten a meaningful share of transaction volume, and that eBay's growth depends on niche categories that larger competitors could still target once they prove profitable.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 20.0Score: 69Market cap: $2.69T

eBay names Amazon first among the general ecommerce sites where the same shoppers buy and the same third-party sellers list their goods.

P/E: 38.2Score: 82Market cap: $6.56B

Etsy runs the same marketplace model, taking a fee on sales by small independent sellers in collectibles, handmade and vintage categories that are core to eBay.

P/E: 27.3Score: 68Market cap: —

Facebook Marketplace, which eBay cites by name, attracts the same private sellers of used and local goods and the buyers who look for them.

P/E: 99.5Score: 76Market cap: $0

eBay lists Shopify among the alternatives sellers choose instead of a marketplace, competing for the merchants whose fees make up eBay's revenue.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (阿里巴巴集团)BABA

Through AliExpress and Taobao, Alibaba competes for the same cross-border bargain shoppers and the same merchants selling internationally, and eBay names it as a competitor.

Mercari, Inc. (株式会社メルカリ)Not tracked

Mercari is a consumer-to-consumer marketplace for second-hand goods in Japan and the United States, the resale niche eBay has made its focus.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$12.01B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$2.23B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$1.43B

股东权益合计

$4.48B

负债合计

$12.95B

流动比率

1.02

利息覆盖率

9.94

债务/EBITDA

2.37

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形合理估值

公允价值

$95.10

当前价格

$106.80

安全边际

-12.3%

公允价值区间

$63.88 - $126.32

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$116.04
现金流折现法(DCF):$122.26
市盈率法(P/E):$79.45
格雷厄姆成长公式:$35.60
盈利能力价值(EPV):$36.33
合理市净率(P/B):$58.54
股息折现模型(戈登模型):$15.44
P/FFO(运营资金):$88.16
周期中段收益:$82.84
市销率法(P/S):$45.24
分析师共识:买入 (17B / 20H / 2S)
最近财报超预期:+4.19%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

21.91

ROE

45.3%

市净率(P/B)

10.12

P/FCF

19.44

毛利率

72.1%

ROIC

16.2%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

16.2%

WACC

10.8%

ROIC − WACC

+5.5 pp

ROIC 超过资本成本:公司正在为股东创造价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 17.18%
  • Price CAGR 13.90%
  • ROIC 16.2%
  • Gross Margin 72.1%
  • P/FCF 19.44
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 20.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 48.3%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 2.6%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.36
  • Share Dilution -6.6%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

未通过(8)

  • P/B Ratio 10.12
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 4.5%
  • Analyst Consensus 44% Buy
  • Net Margin Trend 18.6% vs 20.8%

不可用(2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-评分

5/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.36

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-6.6%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Jamie J. IannoneCEO, President & Director52
Ms. Peggy M. Alford CPASenior VP & CFO53
Ms. Samantha WellingtonSenior VP, Chief Legal Officer, General Counsel & Secretary47
Mr. Jordan Douglas Bradley SweetnamSenior VP & Chief Commercial Officer45
Ms. Julie A. LoegerSenior VP & Chief Growth Officer61
Mr. Pierre M. OmidyarFounder & Director Emeritus58
Ms. Rebecca SpencerVP, Chief Accounting Officer & Principal Accounting Officer47
Mr. Mazen Al-RawashdehSenior VP & CTO59
Mr. John Peter Egbert IIIVice President of Investor Relations-
Ms. Gigi Ganatra DuffChief Communications Officer-

审计风险

1

董事会风险

2

薪酬风险

8

股东权利风险

3

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-02-19

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-08-06

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-08-05

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for EBAY, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 8/10/2026NEUTRAL
    EBay may dodge a GameStop takeover — but there’s a new twist in the Ryan Cohen saga

    GameStop may explore a collaboration with eBay instead of a full merger, according to Bloomberg. While this potential partnership could offer new avenues for business development, some analysts express skepticism about the tangible benefits for eBay. The news introduces uncertainty regarding the strategic direction and potential value creation for eBay shareholders, as the specifics of any collaboration remain undefined. Investors will be closely watching for further details to assess the impact on eBay's market position and financial performance.

  • 8/6/2026NEUTRAL
    eBay CEO Jamie Iannone’s new playbook embraces AI tools while blocking AI buyers

    eBay CEO Jamie Iannone is implementing a new strategy that integrates AI tools into the company's operations while simultaneously restricting AI-driven buyers from the platform. This dual approach aims to leverage AI for internal efficiencies and enhanced customer experience without compromising the integrity of transactions or the platform's user base. The move signals eBay's cautious yet forward-looking stance on AI adoption, balancing innovation with risk management. Investors will be watching to see how this strategy impacts user engagement, transaction volume, and competitive positioning in the e-commerce landscape.

  • 5/20/2026NEUTRAL
    GameStop ups its stake in eBay after its buyout bid was rejected

    GameStop has increased its stake in eBay following the rejection of its $56 billion buyout bid. While eBay's board did not accept the offer, GameStop's continued investment signals persistent interest in the e-commerce platform. This development suggests GameStop sees underlying value in eBay, potentially as a strategic acquisition target or a profitable investment, even without immediate control. Investors will be watching for further moves from GameStop and eBay's response to this increased stake.

  • 5/14/2026NEGATIVE
    Ryan Cohen Slams eBay Board After GameStop's $56 Billion Bid Rejected, Says Shareholders Should Vote On His Offer: 'Run By A Bunch Of Losers'

    Ryan Cohen has escalated his efforts to acquire eBay, publicly criticizing the company's board after they rejected his $56 billion takeover proposal. Cohen, a significant shareholder, labeled the current leadership as 'losers' and urged fellow shareholders to support his bid, emphasizing that they should have the final say on the offer. This public dispute and rejection of a substantial offer could create uncertainty and negatively impact investor sentiment towards eBay's stock, potentially signaling governance issues or a lack of strategic alignment.

  • 5/12/2026NEGATIVE
    ‘Neither credible or attractive’: eBay slaps down GameStop’s $56 billion takeover bid

    eBay Inc. has publicly rejected GameStop's unsolicited $56 billion takeover proposal, deeming it 'neither credible nor attractive.' GameStop, led by Ryan Cohen, had reportedly approached eBay with the intention of combining the e-commerce platforms to better challenge Amazon. This decisive rejection by eBay's board signals a strong intent to remain independent and pursue its own strategic objectives, likely disappointing GameStop's ambitions and potentially impacting its stock if the market views the failed bid as a strategic misstep.

  • 5/12/2026NEUTRAL
    The Ryan Cohen saga gets a new twist as eBay shoots down GameStop’s takeover offer

    eBay Inc. has officially rejected a $56 billion takeover offer, deeming it "neither credible nor attractive." The e-commerce giant expressed confidence in its standalone strategic plan and future prospects. This decision comes amid speculation and potential activist investor involvement, with Ryan Cohen reportedly backing the bid. For investors, eBay's firm stance suggests management believes the current market valuation and its independent growth trajectory are more valuable than the proposed acquisition price. The market will now watch for further developments and potential shareholder reactions to this rejection.

  • 5/6/2026NEGATIVE
    eBay Layoffs Looming? Ryan Cohen Says 11,500 Headcount Doesn't Make Sense Fwor 'Asset Light' Business

    Activist investor Ryan Cohen has publicly questioned eBay's current headcount of 11,500 employees, suggesting it is excessive for an 'asset-light' business model. This statement comes amid Cohen's significant $28 billion takeover bid for the e-commerce giant. The implication is that substantial layoffs could be on the horizon if Cohen's bid is successful or if his influence leads to operational changes. Investors will be watching closely for any confirmation of restructuring plans, as significant workforce reductions could impact operational capacity and employee morale, while potentially signaling a drive for increased efficiency and profitability.

  • 5/5/2026NEUTRAL
    GameStop’s billionaire CEO is an entrepreneur without a college degree who cofounded Chewy. Now he has his sights set on buying eBay for $56 billion

    GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen, the entrepreneur behind Chewy's $3.35 billion sale, is reportedly exploring a bid to acquire eBay for $56 billion. Cohen, who famously faced investor rejection before Chewy's success, is now setting his sights on the e-commerce giant. This potential acquisition could significantly reshape the online retail landscape. Investors will be watching closely to see if Cohen can secure financing and if eBay's board would consider such an offer, given the substantial valuation and strategic implications.

  • 5/4/2026NEUTRAL
    Trump's New Hormuz Plan; China, Europe Respond to US Trade Agenda | Bloomberg Brief 5/4/2026

    eBay shares saw a pre-market rise following a $56 billion takeover bid from GameStop. This significant development introduces uncertainty for eBay's independent trading future, potentially creating short-term volatility. While a successful acquisition could offer shareholders a premium, the market will closely watch GameStop's ability to finance such a large deal and the regulatory hurdles involved. The news also highlights a potential shift in the e-commerce landscape, with implications for other online marketplaces and their stock performance.

via Markets Gazette