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O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY)

合理估值
Consumer CyclicalAuto PartsUnited States

基本面

75

价格

$84.42

市值

$69.76B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

O'Reilly Automotive sells replacement auto parts, tools, supplies and accessories through a large chain of retail stores backed by its own distribution network. It serves two very different customers with the same stores: everyday drivers fixing their own cars, and professional repair shops that need a part delivered within the hour to finish a job. Owning the distribution chain rather than relying on outside wholesalers is what lets it promise that speed.

盈利方式

Revenue is booked at the point of sale, whether over the counter to a walk-in customer or delivered to a professional repair shop's account. The DIY and professional halves of the business are roughly equal in size but behave differently: DIY sales follow store traffic and weather-driven repair needs, while professional sales depend on account relationships and, above all, on how fast O'Reilly can get the right part to a shop, which is what its hub-and-distribution-center network is built to deliver.

分部营收

DIY Retail50%

Parts and accessories sold over the counter to individual customers repairing their own vehicles.

Professional Service Provider50%

Parts sold and delivered to professional repair shops and service technicians, O'Reilly's fastest-growing customer group.

护城河

规模效应 · 狭窄

A dense network of stores layered on regional distribution centers lets O'Reilly promise same-day or next-day parts availability that a small independent parts store cannot match, and that scale is expensive and slow for a new entrant to replicate. The advantage is real but not exclusive: a handful of comparably sized national chains run the same playbook, so no single player owns a durable edge.

需求驱动因素

防御型

Cars break down regardless of the economy, and an aging vehicle fleet on the road tends to need more parts over time, which makes demand fairly resistant to downturns; some drivers even shift from buying a new car to repairing an older one when money is tight, which can help O'Reilly. Store growth and comparable sales still track broader consumer spending at the margin.

主要风险

  • Macroeconomic sensitivity of customers — The company cites inflation, consumer debt levels and general economic conditions as risks: deteriorating conditions can reduce product demand, limit customer and supplier access to credit, and cause financial hardship across the business.
  • Tariffs and trade policy — O'Reilly relies in part on imported parts, and new or increased tariffs raise costs and require further diversification of its supply chain, a process the company itself describes as ongoing rather than complete.
  • Intense competition in a fragmented market — The automotive aftermarket remains highly fragmented, and O'Reilly competes against comparably resourced national retailers as well as many independent and online sellers, limiting its pricing power.
  • Capital-intensive expansion — Growth depends on continuing to open new stores and expand the distribution network at a steady pace, which requires ongoing capital spending and execution; a slowdown in store openings would directly slow revenue growth.

看多理由

Buyers argue that O'Reilly's distribution density gives it a durable speed advantage with professional customers, that an aging US vehicle fleet supports steady parts demand regardless of new-car sales, and that a long track record of disciplined store expansion and share buybacks has compounded returns for shareholders for decades.

看空理由

Sellers fear that O'Reilly competes against equally well-capitalized national rivals with no clear way to widen the gap, that tariffs on imported parts squeeze margins the company cannot fully offset with price increases, and that continued growth increasingly depends on opening stores in markets it knows less well, including outside the United States.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 19.5Score: 67Market cap: $47.56B

O'Reilly names AutoZone first among its competitors in its 10-K: the two run the largest US networks of auto parts stores and fight store-by-store for the same DIY motorists and the same professional repair shops.

P/E: 483.6Score: 46Market cap: $17.66B

Genuine Parts owns the NAPA network that O'Reilly's 10-K names as a competitor, and its distribution to independent garages goes head-to-head with O'Reilly's professional-installer business.

P/E: 12.8Score: 65Market cap: $5.82B

LKQ supplies aftermarket, recycled and specialty replacement parts to the same North American collision and mechanical repair shops that make up O'Reilly's professional customer base.

P/E: 20.0Score: 69Market cap: $2.69T

O'Reilly's 10-K names Amazon among the online retailers it competes with, because DIY customers can order the same parts and accessories online instead of walking into a store.

P/E: 37.7Score: 49Market cap: $853.59B

O'Reilly's 10-K lists Walmart among the mass merchandisers that take away sales of oil, batteries, wipers and other high-turnover maintenance items bought by DIY motorists.

Advance Auto Parts, Inc.AAP

Advance Auto Parts is the third national auto parts chain named in O'Reilly's 10-K, selling the same replacement parts from stores in the same American towns and to the same professional installers.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$18.57B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$2.65B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$1.59B

股东权益合计

$-763M

负债合计

$17.30B

流动比率

0.75

利息覆盖率

14.37

债务/EBITDA

2.41

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

周期性合理估值

公允价值

$72.51

当前价格

$84.42

安全边际

-16.4%

公允价值区间

$47.79 - $97.22

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$107.80
现金流折现法(DCF):不适用于此类公司
市盈率法(P/E):$76.09
格雷厄姆成长公式:不适用于此类公司
盈利能力价值(EPV):$43.28
合理市净率(P/B):不适用于此类公司
股息折现模型(戈登模型):不适用于此类公司
P/FFO(运营资金):不适用于此类公司
周期中段收益:$59.76
市销率法(P/S):不适用于此类公司
分析师共识:强力买入 (29B / 7H / 0S)
最近财报超预期:-2.25%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

27.11

ROE

-332.5%

市净率(P/B)

-

P/FCF

32.04

毛利率

51.6%

ROIC

36.7%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

36.7%

WACC

7.3%

ROIC − WACC

+29.4 pp

ROIC 超过资本成本:公司正在为股东创造价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 16.56%
  • ROIC 36.7%
  • Gross Margin 51.6%
  • Operating Margin 19.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 423.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 8.9%
  • Analyst Consensus 81% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.24
  • Share Dilution -3.0%
  • Net Margin Trend 14.3% vs 14.2%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

未通过(5)

  • EPS CAGR 4.18%
  • P/FCF 32.04
  • CapEx intensity
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -1.1%

不可用(5)

  • P/B Ratio NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-评分

7/9

财务状况强健

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.24

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-3.0%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Gregory L. HensleeExecutive Chairman64
Mr. Brad W. BeckhamChief Executive Officer46
Mr. David E. O'ReillyExecutive Vice Chairman75
Mr. Brent G. KirbyPresident56
Mr. Jeremy Adam Fletcher CPAExecutive VP & CFO47
Mr. Scott Richard RossExecutive VP & Chief Information Officer59
Mr. Jason Lee TarrantExecutive Vice President of Store Operations & Sales44
Ms. Tamara F. ConnSenior VP of Legal & General Counsel54
Ms. Shari Lynne ReavesSenior Vice President of Human Resources & Training54
Mr. Robert Allen DumasSenior Vice President of Eastern Store Operations & Sales51

审计风险

10

董事会风险

8

薪酬风险

8

股东权利风险

7

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-02-27

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-08-07

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-08-14

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for ORLY, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 3/5/2026POSITIVE
    Can O'Reilly Automotive Stock Beat the Market?

    O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) has demonstrated exceptional performance over the past five years, with its shares more than tripling in value. This positive trend indicates strong growth and solid business management within the auto parts retail sector. For investors, this suggests a potential continuation of the upward trajectory, supported by consistent demand for vehicle maintenance and repair, making the stock an attractive candidate for a growth-oriented portfolio.

via Markets Gazette