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Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

合理估值
Consumer DefensiveDiscount StoresUnited States

基本面

68

价格

$915.94

市值

$397.57B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Costco runs warehouse stores that sell groceries, household goods and big-ticket items like electronics and tires in bulk, at prices kept close to cost, to customers who pay an annual membership fee to shop there. It carries a deliberately narrow selection — a few thousand items instead of a typical supermarket's tens of thousands — buying each one in huge volume to negotiate the lowest possible price from suppliers, then passing most of the savings straight to the customer.

盈利方式

Costco makes money two ways that work together: thin margins on merchandise that keep prices low enough to justify the membership, and the membership fee itself, which is nearly pure profit and funds a large share of the company's earnings. Because the merchandise business is priced to be barely profitable, member renewal — running near 90% — matters more to Costco's economics than any single item's markup, which is why keeping members satisfied enough to renew each year is the business's central discipline.

分部营收

Food and Sundries39.8%

Packaged groceries, snacks, beverages and household consumables sold in bulk — the largest single merchandise category by revenue.

Non-Foods25.9%

Electronics, appliances, tires, apparel and other big-ticket, non-grocery merchandise sold in bulk at deep-discount pricing to members.

Ancillary and Other Businesses18.6%

Gas stations, pharmacies, optical centers, food courts and travel booking — services attached to warehouses that draw repeat member visits.

Fresh Foods13.8%

Meat, produce, bakery and deli items, which require faster inventory turnover than Costco's packaged-goods categories.

Membership Fees1.9%

Annual membership dues, charged separately from merchandise and priced almost entirely as profit given Costco's thin retail margins.

护城河

成本优势 · 宽阔

Costco's huge purchase volumes let it negotiate lower unit costs than almost any retail competitor, and it passes most of that saving on rather than keeping it as margin, which keeps members coming back and buying in bulk, reinforcing the volume that won the discount in the first place. That cycle is difficult for a smaller or higher-margin retailer to break into.

需求驱动因素

防御型

Most of what Costco sells is groceries and household staples that people keep buying regardless of the economy, and the membership fee is typically one of the last subscriptions a household cancels. Demand does soften somewhat for the big-ticket, discretionary items in the Non-Foods category during a downturn, but the core grocery business has historically held up well through recessions.

主要风险

  • Thin merchandise margins leave little room for error — Merchandise is priced to be barely profitable on its own, so a cost increase Costco cannot pass through to members, or a slip in member renewal, has an outsized effect on earnings.
  • Competition from e-commerce and discount retailers — Amazon, Walmart's Sam's Club and other discounters compete for the same bulk-buying customer, and online shopping has reduced the advantage of a physical warehouse trip for some categories.
  • Reliance on continued membership renewal and growth — The business model depends on members renewing each year and on adding new members and warehouses; a meaningful drop in the renewal rate would remove a large share of profit.
  • Labor cost and supply chain pressure — Rising wages, tariffs and supply-chain disruption raise the cost of goods and store operations at a company that has limited ability to raise member-facing prices without hurting the value proposition.

看多理由

Buyers argue that Costco's cost advantage and near-90% membership renewal give it one of retail's most durable and repeatable business models, that the membership fee provides a stable, high-margin profit base largely insulated from merchandise price swings, and that the format keeps winning new members even as e-commerce reshapes the rest of retail.

看空理由

Sellers fear that a business built on razor-thin merchandise margins has little cushion if costs rise faster than Costco can pass them on, that e-commerce and discount rivals are chipping away at the reasons to make a physical warehouse trip, and that the stock's premium valuation already assumes membership growth and renewal rates stay near their historic highs indefinitely.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 37.7Score: 49Market cap: $853.59B

Walmart owns Sam's Club, the second-largest US warehouse club, which sells the same bulk groceries, fuel and general merchandise to the same paying members, and its supercenters compete for the same weekly family shop.

P/E: 20.1Score: 66Market cap: $12.23B

BJ's runs the third US membership warehouse club chain, charging an annual fee for bulk groceries and fuel in the same East Coast markets where Costco operates.

P/E: 32.5Score: 72Market cap: $5.22B

PriceSmart operates the same paid-membership warehouse club format in Central America, the Caribbean and Colombia, overlapping with Costco's push into Latin American markets.

P/E: 20.0Score: 69Market cap: $2.69T

Amazon sells household goods and groceries to the same subscribing households through Prime and Whole Foods, competing directly with Costco's membership model and its e-commerce arm.

P/E: 19.5Score: 70Market cap: $71.97B

Target competes for the same middle- and upper-income US shopper across groceries, apparel and home goods, and Costco names it among its US competitors.

P/E: 38.8Score: 42Market cap: $35.25B

Kroger is the largest US traditional supermarket chain and competes for the same grocery basket and fuel purchases, with private labels set against Costco's Kirkland Signature.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$293.59B

最近12个月(截至2026/5/10)

净利润

$8.84B

最近12个月(截至2026/5/10)

自由现金流

$7.84B

股东权益合计

$29.16B

负债合计

$47.94B

流动比率

1.07

利息覆盖率

76.88

债务/EBITDA

0.64

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形合理估值

公允价值

$774.53

当前价格

$915.94

安全边际

-18.3%

公允价值区间

$510.06 - $1039.00

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$1069.20
现金流折现法(DCF):$538.58
市盈率法(P/E):$826.13
格雷厄姆成长公式:$708.00
盈利能力价值(EPV):$215.44
合理市净率(P/B):$303.98
股息折现模型(戈登模型):$97.51
P/FFO(运营资金):$379.73
周期中段收益:$344.38
市销率法(P/S):$782.57
分析师共识:买入 (30B / 15H / 1S)
最近财报超预期:-0.84%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

45.79

ROE

27.8%

市净率(P/B)

12.05

P/FCF

45.85

毛利率

12.9%

ROIC

20.0%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

20.0%

WACC

9.1%

ROIC − WACC

+10.9 pp

ROIC 超过资本成本:公司正在为股东创造价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 13.30%
  • Price CAGR 18.91%
  • ROIC 20.0%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 28.3%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 10.5%
  • Analyst Consensus 65% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.70
  • Share Dilution -0.0%
  • Net Margin Trend 3.0% vs 2.9%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

未通过(9)

  • Gross Margin 12.9%
  • P/FCF 45.85
  • P/B Ratio 12.05
  • Operating Margin 3.8%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -0.3%
  • PEG Ratio 3.02

不可用(1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-评分

7/9

财务状况强健

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.70

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

0.0%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Ron M. VachrisPresident, CEO & Director60
Mr. Gary MillerchipExecutive VP & CFO53
Mr. Javier PolitExecutive VP and CI&DO of Information Systems60
Mr. Pierre RielExecutive VP & COO of International Division61
Ms. Tiffany M. BarbreSenior VP, Corporate Controller & Principal Accounting Officer51
Ms. Claudine E. AdamoExecutive Vice President of Administration54
Mr. John SullivanExecutive VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary64
Sheri FliesSenior Vice President of Global Sustainability & Compliance-
Peter GrueningSenior VP of Membership, Marketing & Member Service Centers-
Brenda WeberSenior Vice President of Human Resources-

审计风险

6

董事会风险

2

薪酬风险

4

股东权利风险

1

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2025-10-08

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-06-03

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-09-24

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for COST, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6d agoPOSITIVE
    Azioni Costco: perché potrebbe presto arrivare un dividendo straordinario

    Costco Wholesale reported fourth-quarter financial results that surpassed market expectations, leading to a positive stock movement. Beyond the strong quarterly figures, an in-depth balance sheet analysis indicates the potential for a special dividend payout. Despite a recent decline of over 15% from its yearly high, this moderate performance may present an attractive entry point for long-term investors following the Q4 report. The anticipation of an extraordinary dividend, coupled with solid earnings, suggests a favorable outlook for shareholders focused on income and capital appreciation.

  • 7d agoPOSITIVE
    Costco’s results beat expectations. Here’s why investors are still cautious.

    Costco reported fourth-quarter earnings that surpassed analyst expectations, largely due to significant tariff refunds. While the profit beat is a positive indicator for the retail giant, investors remain cautious. The company's ability to manage costs and maintain membership growth in a competitive environment will be key factors to watch. The positive earnings, however, suggest underlying operational strength that could support the stock price, especially if the company can sustain this performance without relying on one-off benefits.

  • 6/5/2026POSITIVE
    If You Invested $100 In Costco Wholesale Stock 10 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today

    An investment of $100 in Costco Wholesale Corporation stock a decade ago would have yielded a substantial return, illustrating the company's consistent growth and market performance. While specific figures are not provided in the snippet, the implication of significant appreciation suggests strong revenue growth, expanding membership base, and effective cost management. This historical performance underscores Costco's resilience and its appeal to long-term investors seeking steady capital appreciation and potential dividend income.

  • 5/29/2026POSITIVE
    Costco's Gas Stations Set All-Time Records As Drivers Hunt For Lower Prices

    Costco reported Q3 earnings that surpassed analyst expectations, driven by a remarkable 9.8% comparable sales growth. The company's gas stations achieved all-time record sales as consumers actively sought lower fuel prices, highlighting Costco's value proposition during economic uncertainty. This performance underscores Costco's resilience and ability to attract price-sensitive shoppers, suggesting continued strength in its membership model and overall sales trajectory. Investors may view this as a positive indicator of sustained consumer demand for Costco's offerings.

  • 5/28/2026POSITIVE
    Costco gas demand hits records, as shoppers try to stay ahead of future price spikes

    Costco reported a robust 9.8% increase in same-store sales for its third quarter, significantly surpassing Wall Street's expectations. This strong performance was notably boosted by a surge in gasoline sales, indicating record demand as consumers anticipate future price increases. The company's ability to leverage high-demand, essential goods like gasoline, alongside its core membership model, suggests resilience and potential for continued growth. Investors may view this as a positive sign of Costco's operational strength and its capacity to attract and retain customers even in fluctuating economic conditions.

  • 5/28/2026NEUTRAL
    Full Transcript: Costco Wholesale Q3 2026 Earnings Call

    Costco Wholesale Corporation is scheduled to hold its Q3 2026 Earnings Call on May 28, 2026, at 10:00 PM ET. The transcript of this call will provide detailed insights into the company's financial performance, operational highlights, and future outlook. Investors and analysts will be scrutinizing key metrics such as revenue growth, same-store sales, membership renewal rates, and profit margins. The call is expected to offer guidance on the company's strategic initiatives and its positioning within the competitive retail landscape, influencing investor sentiment and potential stock price movements.

via Markets Gazette