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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)

合理估值
Communication ServicesEntertainmentUnited States

基本面

73

价格

$68.11

市值

$298.64B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Netflix produces and licenses TV shows and films and streams them to paying members over the internet, with no physical discs or theatres involved. It operates worldwide, offering the same core service everywhere but adapting price, local-language content and, in most markets, an ad-supported cheaper tier to fit what each region can pay.

盈利方式

Nearly all revenue comes from monthly membership fees, so growth depends on adding subscribers and raising prices without pushing them to cancel. A smaller and growing slice comes from advertising sold against the cheaper ad-supported plan. Content costs are largely fixed once a show is made, so each additional subscriber watching it adds revenue at very little extra cost, which is why profitability rises faster than the subscriber count.

分部营收

United States and Canada (UCAN)44.2%

The largest and most mature region, with the highest price per member of anywhere Netflix operates.

Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA)32.1%

The second-largest region by revenue, growing faster than UCAN as membership and pricing both climb.

Latin America (LATAM)11.9%

A mature but lower-priced market for Netflix, with membership growth now the main lever left for revenue.

Asia-Pacific (APAC)11.8%

The smallest region but the fastest-growing, now matching Latin America in revenue for the first time.

护城河

规模效应 · 狭窄

Netflix's largest advantage is spreading a multi-billion-dollar content budget across roughly 300 million paying households, letting it outbid smaller streamers for content while charging a comparatively modest monthly fee. That scale is real but not permanent: well-funded rivals with their own content libraries — Disney, Amazon, Apple — can and do compete for the same subscribers and the same shows.

需求驱动因素

防御型

A monthly streaming subscription is a small, discretionary expense that most members keep even when tightening their budget elsewhere, which has made Netflix's subscriber base historically resilient through downturns. The bigger swing factor is not the economy but whether the current content slate is strong enough to keep people from cancelling.

主要风险

  • Content and sports rights costs — Netflix is bidding against deep-pocketed rivals for the same films, series and live sports rights. Rising content costs, including a growing push into live events, pressure margins if they outpace subscriber and price growth.
  • Streaming competition — Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+ and others compete for the same subscription budget and the same viewing hours, and several bundle streaming with other services Netflix cannot match.
  • Currency exposure — With most subscribers now outside the United States, revenue and reported earnings move with exchange rates in ways management does not fully control.
  • Slowing subscriber growth in mature markets — UCAN and EMEA are large, penetrated markets where most of the future growth Netflix needs must come from price increases and advertising rather than new members, both of which have limits.

看多理由

Buyers argue that Netflix's global scale and content budget remain unmatched among pure streamers, that the ad-supported tier and password-sharing crackdown opened new avenues for revenue without needing endless subscriber growth, and that margins still have room to expand as the business matures.

看空理由

Sellers fear that subscriber growth in the largest, most profitable markets is running out of room, that content and live-sports costs keep climbing as competitors bid for the same titles, and that a business built on discretionary spending is more exposed to a downturn than its recent history suggests.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 21.7Score: 64Market cap: $182.32B

Disney+ and Hulu sell the same monthly subscription to the same households Netflix targets, and both companies bid against each other for films, series and sports rights.

P/E: 20.0Score: 69Market cap: $2.69T

Prime Video competes for the same viewing hours and the same advertising budgets worldwide, and its studio arm bids for the same content and talent as Netflix.

P/E: 106.3Score: 49Market cap: $77.43B

HBO Max is the closest rival on premium scripted series, the segment Netflix built its brand on, and remains a separate listed company while the Paramount Skydance purchase is held up in court.

P/E: 17.1Score: 66Market cap: $4.15T

YouTube takes more U.S. television viewing time than any streaming service, so it competes directly for the leisure hours and the ad money Netflix wants.

P/E: —Score: 47Market cap: $10,330

Paramount+ and the free service Pluto TV chase the same subscribers and the same ad-supported viewers, with sports rights as the main lever.

P/E: 7.0Score: 75Market cap: $45.66B

Peacock puts NBCUniversal films and live sports in front of the same U.S. households, and Comcast's cable television business competes for the same entertainment spending.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$48.37B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$13.65B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$9.46B

股东权益合计

$26.62B

负债合计

$28.98B

流动比率

1.14

利息覆盖率

16.94

债务/EBITDA

2.27

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形合理估值

公允价值

$78.51

当前价格

$68.11

安全边际

+13.3%

公允价值区间

$51.03 - $105.99

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$92.93
现金流折现法(DCF):$66.52
市盈率法(P/E):$61.10
格雷厄姆成长公式:$163.71
盈利能力价值(EPV):$23.84
合理市净率(P/B):$26.44
股息折现模型(戈登模型):数据不足,无法计算
P/FFO(运营资金):$43.48
周期中段收益:$23.14
市销率法(P/S):$23.33
分析师共识:买入 (43B / 15H / 0S)
最近财报超预期:-0.52%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

21.88

ROE

41.3%

市净率(P/B)

9.61

P/FCF

25.98

毛利率

49.1%

ROIC

24.5%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

24.5%

WACC

12.3%

ROIC − WACC

+12.2 pp

ROIC 超过资本成本:公司正在为股东创造价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(22)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 5.47%
  • Price CAGR 19.15%
  • ROIC 24.5%
  • Gross Margin 49.1%
  • P/FCF 25.98
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 29.7%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 48.0%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 12.6%
  • Analyst Consensus 74% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 0.66
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.88
  • Share Dilution -1.4%
  • Net Margin Trend 28.2% vs 24.6%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

未通过(5)

  • P/B Ratio 9.61
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -7.1%

不可用(1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-评分

7/9

财务状况强健

score
criteria

盈利质量

0.88

中等:利润与现金之间存在一定差距

股权稀释

-1.4%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Theodore A. SarandosCo-CEO, President & Director60
Mr. Gregory K. PetersCo-CEO, President & Director54
Mr. Spencer Adam NeumannChief Financial Officer55
Mr. David Hyman J.D.Chief Legal Officer & Secretary59
Mr. Clete WillemsChief Global Affairs Officer45
Ms. Natalie GutteridgeVP of Corporate Legal & Operations-
Mr. Jeffrey William KarbowskiChief Accounting Officer46
Ms. Elizabeth StoneChief Product & Technology Officer-
Mr. Spencer WangVice President of Finance, Corporate Development & Investor Relations-
Ms. Dani DudeckChief Communications Officer-

审计风险

10

董事会风险

3

薪酬风险

6

股东权利风险

5

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-01-23

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-07-17

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-07-30

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for NFLX, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 2d agoPOSITIVE
    Here’s what Netflix skeptics are getting wrong about the stock, according to an analyst

    Deutsche Bank analysts are challenging skepticism surrounding Netflix stock, arguing that investors are overly focused on domestic market saturation and are consequently overlooking significant growth opportunities internationally. The firm suggests that expanding subscriber bases and revenue streams in emerging markets are not being adequately priced into the current valuation. This perspective implies that Netflix's global reach and diversified revenue model provide a more robust growth narrative than commonly perceived, potentially leading to a reassessment of its future earnings potential and stock performance.

  • 9d agoNEGATIVE
    Netflix: azioni in calo, HSBC cita YouTube e calo del coinvolgimento

    Netflix shares fell 2% on Tuesday following an downgrade by HSBC, which cited increasing competition from Alphabet's YouTube and concerns over viewer engagement. HSBC downgraded Netflix to Neutral from Buy, slashing its price target from $96 to $76. The firm highlighted YouTube's growing share of US television viewing, suggesting a near-term rebound in Netflix engagement is less likely. YouTube has captured a record 14.2% of TV time, posing a significant challenge to Netflix's market position and future growth prospects.

  • 13d agoNEGATIVE
    Dow apre in calo di 90 punti mentre Buffett si dimette, azioni Netflix -5%

    Netflix shares plunged 5% in early trading following news of Warren Buffett's resignation from the company's board. While the broader US markets opened mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 93 points, the S&P 500 flat, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.33%, the significant drop in Netflix stock highlights investor reaction to the departure of a prominent figure. This move comes after a volatile week where markets experienced a sharp rebound on Thursday, driven by falling Treasury yields and cooling inflation data, but the specific news regarding Netflix appears to be a strong negative catalyst for its shares.

  • 17d agoPOSITIVE
    Azioni Netflix in rialzo dopo che Evercore alza il target a $110

    Netflix shares surged approximately 4.3% following Evercore ISI's upward revision of its price target to $110 from $100, maintaining an 'Outperform' rating. This new target suggests a potential 42% upside from Netflix's prior closing price. Evercore cited improving subscriber trends in the US and Japan, alongside growth avenues in live events, short-form content, and advertising. Analyst Kutgun Maral highlighted that Netflix's US penetration has reached a multi-year high of 63%. For investors, this indicates strong market positioning and potential for continued growth.

  • 8/13/2026POSITIVE
    Bill Ackman once exited his Netflix stake in a huff. He’s buying the streaming giant again, as well as these five stocks.

    Prominent investor Bill Ackman, through his hedge fund Pershing Square, has re-entered a significant position in Netflix Inc. This move comes after a previous exit, signaling a renewed conviction in the streaming giant's prospects. Pershing Square has acquired stakes in five other undisclosed stocks over the past six months, indicating a broader strategic shift or rebalancing within Ackman's portfolio. The re-investment in Netflix suggests Ackman believes the company's valuation has become attractive, potentially driven by anticipated subscriber growth, content strategy adjustments, or improved profitability metrics. Investors will monitor Netflix's upcoming earnings reports for confirmation of these positive trends.

  • 7/20/2026NEUTRAL
    Netflix Returns to the High-Grade Bond Market After 2024 Debut

    Netflix Inc. is returning to the US high-grade bond market, marking its first issuance since its debut two years ago. This move comes amid increasing investor scrutiny driven by slowing sales growth. The company aims to raise capital, but the timing and context suggest a potentially challenging environment for debt issuance. Investors will be watching the terms of the bond offering closely to gauge market appetite and Netflix's financial strategy in response to its growth trajectory.

via Markets Gazette